Thread by @WilsonKM2

Today in the #AtlanticBubble

33 new cases were reported: 2 each in PEI, and Newfoundland and Labrador, 12 in New Brunswick, and 17 in Nova Scotia.

There are now 709 known, active cases in the region.

PEI reported 2 new cases today, both related to travel outside the region and both detected during routine testing in isolation.

There are now 14 known, active cases in PEI.

NL also reported 2 new cases today:

1 each in the Central (close contact) and Western (travel-related) health regions.

Neither new cases is connected to each region's respective clusters, both of which remain under investigation.

There are now 101 known, active cases in NL.

Good progress in the Central region cluster recently.

Western has spiked up but remains at low levels.

NB reported 12 new cases today:

5 in Moncton (3 close contacts, 2 under investigation)

5 in Fredericton (3 close contacts, 2 under investigation)

2 in Bathurst (both under investigation)

There are now 146 known, active cases in NB.

Case numbers in NB remain a bit elevated but mostly stable (have been since late March) and case origins have been spottier than one might hope the last couple of days.

Arbitrary Concern Level: 1/10 (one eyebrow raised).

NS reported 17 new cases today.

None in the Western zone

None in the Northern zone.

None in the Eastern zone.

17 in the Halifax area (Central zone)

There are now 448 known, active cases in NS.

NS Outbreak Detailed:

Restrictions/case levels map

Case origins timeline

Cases per capita timeline with Halifax emphasized

Comparison of Halifax outbreak wind-down to the worst outbreak in each health region in the country (scaled peak-to-peak)

Halifax ticked down another level on the map, Eastern isn't far behind.

Now 3 weeks and a day past the peak, cases are down just under 90%.

The wording in the provincial update today suggests community spread is no longer suspected in Sydney (seemingly)

There is still some evidence of community spread in the Halifax area, although case numbers are dropping rapidly.

It sounds like we might expect to see case origin data reported by the province in the not too distant future, due to lower case levels.

Due to the rapidly improving situation in the Halifax and Sydney areas, the two cities will be joining the rest of the province in re-opening in-person learning in schools after a bit over a month* of online learning.

*Not counting the weeks of one-off closures due to outbreaks.

By end of week, a lot more activities will be available to Nova Scotian's than have been for the past several weeks during the height of the outbreak.

1) That's awesome. Congrats, everyone!

2) Let's keep the trend going by dialing up our testing. There's plenty of capacity.

Sure, getting tested in the middle of the largest outbreak in the region is cool and all, but having a large, varied share of the population get tested on a weekly basis would really help drum out emerging clusters.

Nothing's cooler than finding emerging clusters, I'm told.

So, if you're out and about having patio beers or have kids in school, please make getting tested part of your weekly routine (either at a pop-up rapid test site or by booking an appointment).

It's quick, easy, and really does helps.

Goal: Most uneventful re-opening ever.

Regional Summary

NB: Cases are elevated but mostly still low. Contact tracing hasn't been as successful in the last couple of days (mainly Moncton and Fredericton)

NS: Good progress

PEI: Quiet

NL: Western/Central cluster resolution going well, as far as I can tell.

You can see the entire pandemic timeline for the Atlantic region and surrounding area in the animation.

Each tick is a week since the start of the pandemic in March of last year.

Vaccine Roll-Out Metrics

1st graph shows how many days since each province had enough doses to cover their current usage.

2nd graph shows percent of eligible population that is newly vaccinated each day

3rd graph shows days ahead/behind versus national average

This animation shows each province's vaccination pace as a percent of the pace they need to each 80% first dose coverage by the end of June (based on how many they have already vaccinated and how much time is left).

Older data becomes less visible over time.

Here is the current percent of the eligible population of each province covered by at least one vaccine dose (Territories shown in the 2nd graph).

Graph shows actual first dose coverage (blue) compared to a charitable maximum (green) that accounts for previously given 2nd doses and gives a 5-day grace period on deliveries.

Provinces are sorted from smallest (good) to largest (bad) gap between actual/potential coverage.

Nightly quick look at how the rest of the country is doing.

Mostly quite well. All the provinces have hit their peaks from the recent wave and most are rapidly making their way down to the floor.

Manitoba is the last hold out, but it's also making it's way down.

Locally, our biggest threat of an outbreak tends to come from unknowingly importing cases. But if our neighbours have (much) fewer cases, then the risk to us goes down (aside from being good in it's own right).

Things are improving rapidly.

That's it for tonight's update.

Take care of one another and have a great rest of the night!