Thread by @fascinatorfun

I had hoped (but not believed) I would never need to do another if these daily summary threads again

🦠 5765 new cases (rolling 7 day average up 46.2%)

⚰️ 13 x 28 day deaths. I think they are turning up again. Watch this space over the next 2-3 weeks.

The upward movement of cases can be clearly seen in the 7 day rates.

We have not been at 35.9 cases per 100k since early April.

We got so close. Why are we squandering all that effort for want of a bit more self discipline for a couple more months?

Look at cases by swab date

5891 on 2-6-21. (NB cases may well be added to recent days due to reporting lag).

2702 on 18-6-21 just as measures relaxed.

More than doubled

🏥 admissions? 154 but the rolling average is down a fraction.

But what is happening under the bonnet?

Look. Just before measures were relaxed we got down to 78 admissions in a day rising to the high point of 134 in a day last week and 154 on Tuesday 1st June.

Sorry. 2702 on 18th May (not June!) just when measures were relaxed

I think deaths are turning up again too, when looking at deaths by date of death but the is quite a lot of uncertainty around the impact vaccinations will have on deaths esp with the DELTA variant now dominant.

Reason to believe vaccinations (esp 2-dose) reduce but not eliminate

Either way. Cases are the first indicator and the gradual increase in positivity (1.2% on 31st May, since when positives have continued to rise).

That increase isn’t increased testing either as that is down overall.

💉 535,226 vaccine doses given

(💉 1st dose- 174k
💉💉 2nd dose - 360k.)

The final graph shows the gap between those with first doses and second doses are narrowing.

But note: the uptake graphs are percentages of the ADULT population not the population as a whole.

Here @LawrenceGilder compares last Saturday with today.

You can see cases are up c70% and deaths up 85%.

Of course there is likely to be some bumpiness in the data but it still points in the same direction.