#COVID19AB Balanced Scorecard
Sat 5 June
Nothing remarkable in general downward trend of "Old Covid" - Original Wild Strain and B117.
BIG 🔥 in "New Covid" of B.1.617 and P1 Variants of Concern.
(see rest of thread)
B.1.617 has exploded and appears to be drastically under screened in May.
• ⏫38 in last day, to 74 in just 4 days of June, vs 51 in all of May.
• 🔥from 0.4% of variants thru May, to 9.1% so far in June.
• Pushing P1 down relatively from 8.8% thru May, to 5.1% so far in June.
I have been warning about B.1.617 undercount in Alberta since early May in increasingly stronger terms. Not an epidemiologist, but I can see issues hidden in stats or spin.
I built my Variant Spreadsheet with cumulative stats, to find hidden problems between any points in time.
I know that testing 20K swabs/day, and then having 2400 cases to screen for variants (esp B.1.617) was incredibly difficult on our labs.
But in 2nd half of May, with daily tests & genetic screening down below 1/3rd of lab capacity, staying under <50% sampling is questionable.
A savvy reporter may want to ask:
Overall, 48.2% of May cases were screened for assorted variants. But B.1.617 = only 51 cases out of 12,606 variants identified = 0.4%.
First 4 days in June: 74 cases = 9.1%.
How many cases of #COVID19AB were screened for B.1.617 in May?
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