Thread by @trevortombe

Today's vaccine update:

- Shots reported today: 352,219* (54% 2nd doses)
- Total shots: 26,855,647
- Age 12+ w/ a Shot: 71.3%
- Age 18+ w/ a Shot: 73.3% (est)
- Shots per 100 people: 70.7
- Inventory: 8.5 days

More: trevortombe.github.io/covidgraphs/
* Missing YT (not reported yet)

The latest estimates of vaccinations by age:

- Those 60+: 89.3% have at least one dose and 18.1% have two
- 18-59: it's 66.3% and 7.8%
- Adults: 73.3% and 10.9%

Note: data comes with a 6-13 day lag; these are my own estimates

In total, Canada is now up to 26.9 million shots given -- which is 89.1% of the total 30.1 million doses available. Over the past 7 days, 2,371,492 doses have been delivered to provinces.

And so far 3.2 million are fully vaccinated with two shots.

Canada's daily pace:

Today's 352,219 shots given compares to an average of 383,757/day over the past week and 361,660/day the week prior.

- Pace req'd for 2 doses to 75% of Canadians by Sept 30: 264,529
- At current avg pace, we reach 75% by Aug 25

And here's what our current pace means going forward. Enough doses to achieve:

- 75% w/ 1+ dose and 20% w/ 2 by June 20
- 75% w/ 1+ dose and 50% w/ 2: July 16
- 75% w/ 2 doses: August 6

The above is total doses. Based on that, and a model of 1st vs 2nd shots, here's a more detailed projection:

- 75% of people with a shot: June 14
- 20% fully vaccinated: June 23
- Match current U.S. fully vaccinated rate: July 23
- 75% fully vaccinated: August 15

Dose projections are informative, but effective protection is lower than the share with a shot. One dose is less effective than two, plus effects lag and are uncertain. Roughly, current "coverage" is ~21-43%

Useful research summary: publichealthontario.ca/-/media/docume…

Turning to individual provinces, here's total shots given and share of delivered doses used.

- Most shots given: YT at 130 doses per 100 people
- Fewest: PE at 65

- Highest share of delivered doses used: AB with 95%
- Lowest: NU with 65%

A more detailed look at provs/terrs:

- Highest overall: YT at 69% receiving at least one shot
- Most 1st doses only: NL at 59% receiving that shot
- Most Fully Vaccinated: YT at 60%
- Fewest Vaccinated: NU at 45%

How does Canada compare to others? Here's all 37 OECD (i.e., developed) countries:

- Share of pop. w/ at least one dose: Canada ranks 2nd
- Total doses per 100: 7th
- Fully vaccinated: 31st

Canada/US comparison.

Received at least one dose:
- Top Prov: QC, 65.6% of pop
- Top State: VT, 71.7
- Top Terr: YT, 69.2

Fully vaccinated:
- Top Prov: AB, 13.0% of pop
- Top State: VT, 59.4
- Top Terr: YT, 60.5

Interactive plot here: trevortombe.github.io/covidgraphs/usa

Going forward, here's a cdn/usa comparison of total doses per 100 people.

- In Canada, this rises by 1.01 per day. The US rises by 0.32 per day.
- Projected out, we match the US in 30 days
- Reaching the current US rate takes 21 days.

Of course, there's lots of countries and many ways to compare. Here's a selection across several metrics/groups of how Canada ranks globally. Pick your preferred measure!

Fin.

Note: all graphs (and more!) are automatically updated and posted online for later review and easy sharing at the following site: trevortombe.github.io/covidgraphs/