Thread by @trevortombe

Today's vaccine update:

- Shots reported today*: 401,833 (59% 2nd doses)
- Total shots: 27,257,480
- Age 12+ w/ a Shot: 71.8%
- Age 18+ w/ a Shot: 73.6% (est)
- Shots per 100 people: 71.7
- Inventory: 7.8 days

More: trevortombe.github.io/covidgraphs/

* Missing YT (not reported yet)

The latest estimates of vaccinations by age:

- Those 60+: 89.4% have at least one dose and 19.4% have two
- 18-59: it's 66.6% and 8.3%
- Adults: 73.6% and 11.7%

Note: data comes with a 6-13 day lag; these are my own estimates

In total, Canada is now up to 27.3 million shots given -- which is 90.0% of the total 30.3 million doses available. Over the past 7 days, 2,141,010 doses have been delivered to provinces.

And so far 3.4 million are fully vaccinated with two shots.

Canada's daily pace:

Today's 401,833 shots given compares to an average of 390,774/day over the past week and 369,003/day the week prior.

We can use the latest average daily pace to project where vaccination rates are soon headed.

Based on that average pace, and a model of 1st vs 2nd shots, here's a projection of where we're headed:

- 75% of people with a shot: June 14
- By Canada Day: 80.5% with 1+ doses and 27.5% with 2
- Match current U.S. fully vax rate: July 22
- 75% fully vaccinated: August 13

Dose projections are informative, but effective protection is lower than the share with a shot. One dose is less effective than two, plus effects lag and are uncertain. Roughly, current "coverage" is ~22-47%

Useful research summary: publichealthontario.ca/-/media/docume…

Turning to individual provinces, here's total shots given and share of delivered doses used.

- Most shots given: YT at 130 doses per 100 people
- Fewest: PE at 65

- Highest share of delivered doses used: AB with 96%
- Lowest: NU with 65%

A more detailed look at provs/terrs:

- Highest overall: YT at 69% receiving at least one shot
- Most 1st doses only: NL at 59% receiving that shot
- Most Fully Vaccinated: YT at 60%
- Fewest Vaccinated: NU at 45%

How does Canada compare to others? Here's all 37 OECD (i.e., developed) countries:

- Share of pop. w/ at least one dose: Canada ranks 2nd
- Total doses per 100: 7th
- Fully vaccinated: 31st

The above picture hasn't changed much in a while, but it looks like tomorrow Canada will move into 1st in the OECD for the share of its total population with at least one dose.

Canada/US comparison.

Received at least one dose:
- Top Prov: QC, 66.1% of pop
- Top State: VT, 71.7
- Top Terr: YT, 69.2

Fully vaccinated:
- Top Prov: AB, 13.5% of pop
- Top State: VT, 59.5
- Top Terr: YT, 60.5

Interactive plot here: trevortombe.github.io/covidgraphs/usa

Going forward, here's a cdn/usa comparison of total doses per 100 people.

- In Canada, this rises by 1.03 per day. The US rises by 0.34 per day.
- Projected out, we match the US in 29 days
- Reaching the current US rate takes 20 days.

Of course, there's lots of countries and many ways to compare. Here's a selection across several metrics/groups of how Canada ranks globally. Pick your preferred measure!

Fin.

Note: all graphs (and more!) are automatically updated and posted online for later review and easy sharing at the following site: trevortombe.github.io/covidgraphs/