Thread by @trevortombe

Today's vaccine update 💉

- Shots reported today*: 510,910 (new record!)
- Share 2nd shots: 64%- Age 12+ w/ a Shot: 72.9%
- Age 18+ w/ a Shot: 75.1% (est)
- Shots per 100 people: 74.3
- Inventory: 7.8 days

More: trevortombe.github.io/covidgraphs/

In total, Canada is now up to 28.2 million shots given -- which is 89.9% of the total 31.4 million doses available. Over the past 7 days, 2,546,940 doses have been delivered to provinces.

And so far 4.0 million are fully vaccinated with two shots.

The latest estimates of vaccinations by age:

- Those 60+: 89.8% have at least one dose and 26.5% have two
- 18-59: it's 68.7% and 8.7%
- Adults: 75.1% and 14.1%

Note: data comes with a 6-13 day lag; these are my own estimates

Canada's daily pace:

Today's 510,910 shots given compares to an average of 406,147/day over the past week and 369,534/day the week prior.

We can use the latest average daily pace to project where vaccination rates are soon headed.

Based on that pace, and a model of 1st vs 2nd shots, here's when we might achieve different rates:

- 75% of people with a shot: June 16
- By Canada Day: 80.1% with 1+ doses and 29.4% with 2
- Match current U.S. fully vax rate: July 21
- 75% fully vaccinated: August 11

Can our pace continue? Yes, and accelerate from here. The recently updated delivery schedule includes 12 million (!) doses over the next two weeks!

And that doesn't include current inventories or deliveries not yet scheduled through July.

Dose projections are informative, but effective protection is lower than the share with a shot. One dose is less effective than two, plus effects lag and are uncertain. Roughly, current "coverage" is ~23-50%

Useful research summary: publichealthontario.ca/-/media/docume…

Turning to individual provinces, here's total shots given and share of delivered doses used.

- Most shots given: YT at 132 doses per 100 people
- Fewest: NL at 69

- Highest share of delivered doses used: QC with 92%
- Lowest: NU with 56%

A more detailed look at provs/terrs:

- Highest overall: YT at 71% receiving at least one shot
- Most 1st doses only: NL at 60% receiving that shot
- Most Fully Vaccinated: YT at 61%
- Fewest Vaccinated: NU at 45%

How does Canada compare to others? Here's all 37 OECD (i.e., developed) countries:

- Share of pop. w/ at least one dose: Canada ranks 1st
- Total doses per 100: 7th
- Fully vaccinated: 31st

Canada/US comparison.

Received at least one dose:
- Top Prov: QC, 67.1% of pop
- Top State: VT, 71.8
- Top Terr: YT, 70.6

Fully vaccinated:
- Top Prov: AB, 15.3% of pop
- Top State: VT, 59.8
- Top Terr: YT, 61.3

Interactive plot here: trevortombe.github.io/covidgraphs/usa

Going forward, here's a cdn/usa comparison of total doses per 100 people.

- In Canada, this rises by 1.07 per day. The US rises by 0.32 per day.
- Projected out, we match the US in 24 days
- Reaching the current US rate takes 17 days.

Of course, there's lots of countries and many ways to compare. Here's a selection across several metrics/groups of how Canada ranks globally. Pick your preferred measure!

Fin.

Note: all graphs (and more!) are automatically updated and posted online for later review and easy sharing at the following site: trevortombe.github.io/covidgraphs/

Periodic reminder: the above graphs are easy and automated, compiling the prov data is hard work. Thanks to Noah Little and other volunteers at @covid_canada! (covid19tracker.ca/index.html).

If you like these updates, consider supporting their work at ko-fi.com/covid19tracker…