Thread by @Dr_D_Robertson

Let's look at the SAGE 92 minutes that would have informed the Government's thinking.

A thread.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

Additional material has also been released from meetings the previous week.

gov.uk/government/pub…

But back to the SAGE 92 consensus statement.

"R is now estimated to be 40–80% higher for delta than for alpha (B.1.1.7), although a figure higher or lower than this cannot be ruled out. "

*40 to 80%*

Doubling time of around 10 days but may be as low as 7 days

Not clear whether reductions e.g. in Bolton are due to intense focus on those areas or otherwise.

Do not use Bolton to infer what will happen in other places.

(ps well done Bolton!)

Clearly setting out that cases/infections and hospitalizations are still linked

This relationship is a key uncertainty

Good news on fewer older patients in hospital. Vaccines work.

**A warning on care homes**

Some ethnic groups more likely to become infected (reasons not given, my conjecture: could be lower % vaccinated, could be higher exposure)

Uncertainty about scale of expected resurgence - *larger wave than equivalent scenarios modelled ahead of Roadmap step 3* (presumably as Delta transmssion now estimated to be higher than scenarios modelled before Step 3)

Key uncertainties: growth advantage of delta, the effectiveness of vaccines against severe disease caused by delta

Delaying Step 4 *reduces hospitalizations and deaths*. (Step 4 has now been delayed)

Most of the benefit comes from a 4 week delay

A 4 week delay is expected to reduce hospitalizations by 1/3 to 1/2

Risk of unsustainable pressures on the NHS much lower with a delay.

There remains uncertainty from new variants