Thread by @Dr_D_Robertson

PHE have issued their latest surveillance report.

"Case rates increased in all age groups, ethnic groups and regions. Overall Pillar 1 and Pillar 2 positivity increased compared to the previous week, most notably in younger age groups."

A thread
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

"This week, data on SARS-CoV-2 reinfections in England are being reported for the first time. 15,893 possible reinfections have been identified, of which 53 have been confirmed by identification of genetically distinct specimens from each illness episode."

"COVID-19 hospitalisations increased slightly in week 23. Deaths with COVID-19 decreased in week 23."

(hospitalizations follow cases, deaths follow hospitalizations. This data is for the period ended 13 June.

"COVID-19 vaccine coverage was 56.1% for dose 1 at the end of week 23, reaching over 90% in all cohorts over the age of 65 years and over 80% in all cohorts over 50 years. COVID-19 vaccine coverage was 40.9% for dose 2 at the end of week 23."

"The impact of the vaccination programme is particularly notable in the seroprevalence data which indicates that approximately 79.1% of blood donors aged 17 and over have antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 from either infection or vaccination, ...

" ... compared to 14.8% from infection alone. High levels of seropositivity for vaccination or infection continue to be observed in those aged over 50, as well as increases in those aged 40 to 49 and 30 to 39, following vaccination rollout."

Cases and positivity increasing.

Change in age distribution (a) across the pandemic compared to (b) last two weeks (presumably the vaccine effect)

Case rates increasing particularly in 20-29, 10-19 year olds.

Interesting difference between 20-29 year old men vs women (Pillar 2 tests) - cases rising more in men vs women in this age group.

North-West region showing higer case rates (presumably outbreaks centred around Bolton/Blackburn with Darwen)

Case rates map. Note scale. Cornwall showing an increased rate.

New section on reinfection (defined as "tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 through PCR and/or lateral flow testing with an interval of at least 90 days between two consecutive positive tests")

"15,893 possible reinfections have been identified, of which 53 have been confirmed by identification of genetically distinct specimens from each illness episode."

"It is important to consider reinfections in the context of first infections and there is a 90-day delay before people with a first infection can become eligible for reinfection."

Possible reinfections in blue.

Possible reinfection rate by sex and age.

Incidents

And data caveats

"44 incidents were from care homes where 36 had at least one linked case that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 where test results were available"

(This is one to be aware of - care homes were mentioned in SAGE minutes)

Food outlet / restaurants increases

Distribution around the country

Hospitalizations increasing (from a low base)

Excess deaths not detected.

Nearly 80% of blood donors have detectable antibodies / seroprevalence. Can see in the divergence in the lines that the vast majority of this comes from vaccination.

Antibodies/seroprevalence - very high (but *appears* to be on a slight downward trajectory but with large error bars so not certain) for over 50s.

Can also see the vaccine effect in 40-49 year olds and 30-39 year olds (but not 17-29 year olds) but still some way to go in 30-39 year olds.

Vaccination. 56% have had 1 dose, 41% have had 2 doses.

Not all who have had their first dose when eligible have had their second dose.

First dose takeup

Second dose takeup (can see that this has been the recent focus of vaccinations)

Vaccine dose 1 takeup by age

Vaccine second dose takeup by age

Vaccine takeup by ethnicity.

**There are still large disparities here**

I will post my heatmaps shortly.

Here are the heatmaps for cases, positivity, hospital and ICU admissions.

Here are the cases and hospitalization charts for today.