THREE-WAY BETTING
The market appears to be making a three-way bet on the future
1. All automakers on this chart face the same future customer market reality
2. Their Full Enterprise Values should reflect what the market thinks they are going to do with that reality
@elonmusk
3. The market appears to be saying that the future is a three-way game
4. Toyota has the overall volume lead today and a reasonably strong Balance Sheet with Creditors holding 50% of its Full Enterprise Value
- but no clear plan for a future where BEVs dominate customer sales
5. 75% of VW's Full Enterprise Value is held by its Creditors and it is hugely compromised in a number of other ways
- but it is loudly proclaiming its leadership intentions for a world where BEVs dominate customer sales
6. Its most vital advantage is the backing of the ECB
7. Tesla has the smallest scale but the clearest Leadership and numerous advantages, with the least burden from Debt
- and is driven by both a clear sense of mission and a clear road map into the future
8. It faces massive headwinds from naysayers and yet charges on regardless
9. If the market is right to see it this way, the next decade is going to be an interesting three-way battle
- with most everyone else being relegated to the sidelines as "unimportant"
10. And the confidence of Creditors will be the key to survival for most
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