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13 Oct
WHO IS THE WORLD's RICHEST MAN ?

Random observers point to Elon Musk as the "World's Richest Man"

But in my personal view we should consider him to be the "World's Poorest Man"

- at least in Cash terms

He has no Cash and owes something like $500 million of Debt

@elonmusk
But "Ah" you say, "he owns all those shares in Tesla !"

Well, no he doesn't

For the most part, he owns some worthless pieces of paper called stock options

- which he cannot sell to anyone else

And those are not worth anything close to what most people think they are worth
"Really ?" you say . . .

Yes, really

Naturally you doubt me, so let's take a look at it together, using some illustrative numbers

Are you ready ?
Read 14 tweets
11 Oct
Mercedes-Benz EQS Gets 350 Miles Of EPA Range insideevs.com/news/539481/me…
Here is a table of comparisons

Worth noting its low efficiency :

Lucid Range 19" = 520 / 113 = 4.6 miles per kWh

Tesla Model S LR 19" = 405 / 100 = 4.0 miles per kWh

Mercedes EQS 450+ 20" = 350 / 115 = 3.0 miles per kWh

Porsche Taycan 4S = 227 / 93.4 = 2.4 miles per kWh
For the Mercedes EQS 460+ the German listing on ADAC has some differences in its specifications :

- Acceleration = 0-100 km in 6.2 seconds

- Range = 768 km WLTP = 477 miles

- Battery Size = 107.8 km
Read 4 tweets
10 Oct
"SOLID-STATE" BATTERY MAY HAVE CAUSED MAJOR FIRE IN STUTTGART BUS DEPOT

On 30 September 2021 the Stuttgart fire brigade was alerted to a fire on the premises of the Stuttgarter Straßenbahn AG (SSB)
marketresearchtelecast.com/charging-elect…
A total of around 15 buses were in full fire at the time of notification of the fire brigade, and ultimately 25 buses were destroyed

The investigating LKA are currently assuming that a technical defect during the charging process of an electric bus could have triggered the fire
The Baden-Württemberg State Criminal Police Office (LKA) determined this on the basis of the fire alarm system and the associated temperature sensors

Appraisers should investigate the burned-out bus further, the investigation is ongoing
Read 8 tweets
4 Oct
ALARM BELLS

VW bosses want to radically rebuild their main plant in Wolfsburg to compete against Tesla

Last Thursday Volkswagen boss Herbert Diess and brand boss Ralf Brandstätter called all 120 top managers together in Wolfsburg for a crisis meeting
businessinsider.de/wirtschaft/kam…
Compared to Tesla and Chinese manufacturers, VW is too expensive and slow, they stressed

Now it is time to take up the "fight against Grünheide"
Therefore the plans for the main plant in Wolfsburg are to be revised and made more radical

In order to keep up, old buildings would probably soon be demolished and new ones erected

See here the report from this battlefront
Read 22 tweets
3 Oct
CNBC

Tesla delivered 241,300 electric vehicles during the third quarter of 2021, the company reported Saturday

The quarter's deliveries topped expectations

Analysts predicted that Tesla would deliver around 220,900 electric cars during this period
cnbc.com/2021/10/02/tes…
The company produced 237,823 cars in the period ending September 30, 2021, Tesla said in its report

Model 3 and Y vehicles were 228,882 units, representing its more affordable mid-range offerings

Model S and X vehicles were 8,941 units Image
Last quarter Tesla delivered 201,250 vehicles and produced 206,421 cars, even as production of its Model S and X vehicles fell below 2,500
Read 25 tweets
3 Oct
HOW MANY VEHICLES DOES GM MAKE ?

GM sales have been declining for years

In 200 GM delivered only 3.928 million vehicles and held 5.0% Global Market Share

The vehicles shown for China were actually made by SAIC Motor

SAIC = Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation Image
GM holds equity stakes in two of SAIC Motor's subsidiaries

Those SAIC sales have been declining and losing Chinese market share :

2018 = 3.645 million and 13.7% market share

2019 = 3.094 million and 12.2%, down -15.1%

2020 = 2.901 million and 11.6%, down -6.2% Image
GM's own sales have been declining too :

2018 = 4.741 million and 5.1% global market share

2019 = 4.624 million and 5.1%, down -2.5%

2020 = 3.928 million and 5.0%, down -15.1% Image
Read 5 tweets
1 Oct
SPECIAL EDITION OF FUD NEWS - OCTOBER FOOLS DAY

Specially prepared for Gustavo
HEADLINE #1 : "AUDI LOSES ITS 2020 DOMINANCE OF NORWAY MARKET"

Audi slipped EIGHT PLACES down from its undoubted Market Leadership position in 2020

Tesla takes TOP TWO positions in 2021 Q3

"Ford eats VW's lunch" says noted analyst GJ 007
HEADLINE #2 "VW STRUGGLES TO RESIST HEATED COMPETITION FROM SKODA IN 2021"

The upstart brand races past VW's failing ID.3 and overtakes weak competition from the losing Audi eTron as its volume collapses after a successful 2020

Now Skoda looks to take leadership from VW ID.4
Read 4 tweets
1 Oct
UK BEV REPORT

We now have UK registration data for 2021 Q2

It is the second-largest European market after Germany and just ahead of France

For 2021 H1 73,893 units were sold or 15.0% of the European market

Its detailed data only comes to the website with a three-month lag
Tesla is the clear Market Leader in the UK and has been since 2019 Q3
Tesla Model 3 led the UK Market in 2020 H1 with 9,392 units and 18.7%

- these numbers include Plug-In ICEVs also known as PI-ICEVs and "PHEVs"
Read 21 tweets
1 Oct
NORWAY 20210930

It looks like we have the final numbers for Q3

Pretty much everything has already been said

The last day of the quarter was pretty muted as Tesla had already completed most of their deliveries the day before

23.5% Market Share to Tesla

- up from 12.1% in Q2
HIGH-LEVEL SUMMARY

Market Volume was 33,522 units

- up +9.5% QoQ from 30,626 in Q2

- up +62.8% from 20,592 in Q1

Tesla was Number 1 with volume of 7,869 units and 23.5% Market Share

- up +112.3% QoQ from 3,707 and 12.1% in Q2

- up +198.8% from 2,634 and 12.8% in Q1
Volkswagen was Number Two with volume of 3,469 units and 10.3% Market Share

- down -19.7% QoQ from 4,322 and 14.1% in Q2

- up +142.6% from 1,430 and 6.9% in Q1
Read 5 tweets
30 Sep
General Motors and Ford Motor said Thursday they will cut additional production because of the nagging semiconductor shortage that has hit global auto production
reuters.com/business/autos…
GM, the largest U.S. automaker, said it will extend by two weeks a halt to Chevrolet Blazer sport utility vehicle production at its Ramos plant in Mexico because of the ongoing chips shortage as it resumes production at other North American plants
GM said production will resume Monday at its Lansing Grand River Assembly plant that builds the Chevrolet Camaro and the Cadillac CT4 and CT5

Cadillac production has been halted at the Michigan plant since May
Read 5 tweets
30 Sep
Twenty-one Blue Origin employees published a whistle-blowing open letter on Thursday

Some employees said they wouldn't ride a Blue Origin rocket due to safety concerns

One said it's "lucky" nothing has happened
businessinsider.com/blue-origin-em…
No federal agency regulates passenger safety on private spaceflights.

In a scalding open letter, a group of current and former Blue Origin employees said they would not fly aboard the company's rocket because they don't think it's safe enough
Jeff Bezos, who founded the company in 2000, launched to the edge of space aboard its New Shepard rocket in July

Since that flight, Blue Origin has opened ticket sales, and four customers are scheduled to launch on October 12
Read 6 tweets
30 Sep
TESLA PRODUCTION AND DELIVERY UPDATE 20219829

Just to reiterate my Q3 position and refresh my Q4 and Full Year positions :

Q3 : 250,000 units +/-

Q4 : 268,000 units with +29,500 Wild Card

Full Year : 904,000 with +29,500 Wild Card
In my carefully considered opinion, there is no real reason now to have a meaningful difference between Production and Deliveries except for any ships at sea around the quarter-end

- whether they are sent before or just after the quarter close

- in other words, "in transit"
The Wild Card is dependent on the Shanghai Model Y production rate with 4 full shifts

- the extra amount assumes 1,000 units per 24-hour day or 6,700 units per working week

- we should know this during the quarter or through capacity guidance from Tesla's Q3 Report
Read 6 tweets
23 Sep
Volkswagen Group China has commenced construction of a battery system production factory in Hefei, Anhui province, and will invest over EUR 140 million until 2025 in the new plant and facilities

Start of production is targeted for the second half of 2023
volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/press-relea…
VW Anhui Components Company is the first battery system plant to be wholly owned by VW Group in China

Capacity will be 150,000 to 180,000 high-voltage battery systems for Volkswagen Anhui’s all-electric vehicles based on the Group’s Modular Electric Drive Toolkit MEB platform
With an area of over 45,000 square meters, the plant will be located next to the production facilities of Volkswagen Anhui, Volkswagen’s first majority-owned joint venture for all-electric vehicles
Read 7 tweets
23 Sep
The port in Königs Wusterhausen could handle deliveries for Tesla as early as next summer

This is a stroke of luck for the port and the region, as it was on the verge of closure four years ago

The port area is to be expanded by 25,000 square metres
rbb24.de/studiofrankfur…
Four years ago, no one would have dreamed that the port of Königs Wusterhausen (Dahme-Spreewald) would soon be loading components for the US car manufacturer Tesla

At the time, the port was in crisis following the end of lignite shipping
Now Königs Wusterhausen is considering whether and how it can become a trans-shipment centre for Tesla parts from all over the world via Hamburg to Königs Wusterhausen
Read 15 tweets
22 Sep
"WE SEE THE BEGINNING OF THE END FOR THE FOSSIL-POWERED CAR"

"If the trend line for car sales in the last five years remains true, the last new petrol or diesel car in Norway will be sold in April 2022" says Norwegian Automobile Federation NAF
motor.no/a/208384
In the first eight months of 2017, petrol and diesel cars accounted for more than 25% of new registrations, each with a total of 102,873 new car registrations

In the first 8 months of 2021, petrol and diesel cars accounted for 4.93% and 4.73% out of a total of 110,864 new cars
In July this year, petrol and diesel registrations fell below 1,000 cars together for the first time

The dotted line shows the trend for these registrations month by month since January 2017 and the y-axis shows the number of registered cars with internal combustion engines
Read 4 tweets
22 Sep
SOME ADVICE FOR VICE

Standard advice to an Irishman when he has dug himself into a hole :

"STOP DIGGING"

The "invoice" shown in the Rich Repair video purporting to relate to a 2021 battery replacement was forged from a 2019 Receipt for Supercharger Fees vice.com/en/article/3aq…
Here is the original document before Rich Rebuilds doctored it :
And here is the doctored version from Rich Rebuilds, purporting to be a "quote" for a Model S Battery Replacement
Read 8 tweets
22 Sep
FORD IS STRUGGLING IN 2021

JULY sales down -32% to 120,053 units

- Truck sales -31.8% in total and -37.7% in retail

- SUV sales -27% in total and -34.5% in retail

- Car sales totaled 4,365 units, down 74.5% in total and 78.7% in retail

fordauthority.com/2021/08/ford-m…
AUGUST sales -33% to 124,176 units

- Truck sales -29.4% to 73,610 units

- SUV sales -25.3% to 48,197 units

- Car sales -86% to 2,369 units

fordauthority.com/2021/09/ford-m…
2021 Q2 sales already showed a collapse to 764k units

- down from 1,062k in 2021 Q1

- 1,238k in 2020 Q4

- 1,178k in 2020 Q3
Read 6 tweets
20 Sep
General Motors will begin replacing damaged and fire-prone battery cells on some of its recalled Chevrolet Bolt electric vehicles in mid-October, the automaker announced Monday
cnn.com/2021/09/20/car…
GM first announced a recall of the Chevy Bolt electric vehicles in November 2020 due to fire risk, but it didn't have an immediate fix
In May, it announced a software repair, but then there were two fires involving Bolts that had received that fix, prompting another recall in July of 70,000 vehicles

A month later, the automaker issued a recall on another 70,000 cars
Read 12 tweets
19 Sep
Chip makers to carmakers: time to get out of the semiconductor Stone Age | Fortune

AN IMPORTANT THREAD fortune.com/2021/09/17/chi…
"The automobile is the most expensive consumer good and runs on the cheapest possible semiconductor chip"

"Obsolete technology often over a decade old"

1/ Image
"Carmakers exert brutal cost pressure on their suppliers"

"Investing in old technology is much less attractive"

"It 's not an easy fix"

2/ Image
Read 5 tweets
17 Sep
KOPER, SLOVENIA

Waiting for the next Tesla Ship on Monday morning

1/
With the Alps in the background

2/
Beautiful historic city

3/
Read 7 tweets
16 Sep
EUROPE 2021

1. BEV MARKET VOLUME

2021 Q1 = 202,396 units

2021 Q2 = 289,625 units

2. TESLA

2021 Q1 = 30,892 units for 15.3% Market Share

2021 Q2 = 35,991 units for 12.4% Market Share
3. OTHER OEMs

Data is not currently available for all BEV sales by OEM across the entire European market

And only 2021 Q1 data is complete for the major European markets :
Europe Top Ten BEV Brands in the tracked 11 markets :

- Tesla = 15.1%

- VW = 14.1%

- Peugeot = 8.1%

- Renault = 8.0%

- Hyundai = 6.8%

- Kia = 6.2%

- Nissan = 4.4%

- Smart = 4.1%

- Audi = 4.0%

- BMW = 3.2%
Read 5 tweets