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Oct 2 4 tweets 1 min read
TESLA BOT WILL IMPROVE FSD FOR AUTOMOBILES

The visual demands of Optimus will inevitably backwash into the visual acuity and comprehension of Tesla’s automobile FSD

This is a Good Thing

The synergies will run in both directions

Watch and see . . . While superficially Optimus and automobiles seem like very different types of use cases, both of them strive to use the human capabilities of sight to perform large parts of their functions

- particularly with respect to distance and depth perceptions
Oct 1 8 tweets 2 min read
WHERE HAVE ALL THE ROBOTS GONE ?

Tesla is not the first to build robots

Sony and others had started down this path long ago

So why no mass adoption ?

Let's start with this video

"How Have Atlas, ASIMO, Cheetah, Spot and Pepper fared ?"

via @YouTube For example, there are aspects of Boston Dynamics various robots that may impress more today than Tesla's first prototypes

But these "showcase robots" may not prove to be relevant

Instead, optimization may prove to be key, starting with :

- weight

- power

- energy consumed
Sep 18 7 tweets 3 min read
UBS HAS JUST INITIATED COVERAGE OF SHIFT4

They have done a very thorough job of reviewing the company and its markets

And you may already have seen some of that here on Twitter

Hat Tip 🎩 @Holgerdanske9 In our original review we had used Adyen's 2021 Net Income of €470 million as our Reference Benchmark for matching Adyen's current Market Cap

Sep 15 8 tweets 3 min read
RENEWABLE ENERGY IN EUROPE

1. We need to be using Electricity as the most efficient Energy system

2. 32% of Electricity in Europe was already coming from Renewable sources in 2018

3. For some countries this proportion was already over 60%

4. Wind Power leads the pack Image 5. Wind Power in Europe keeps hitting new records

6. But it needs Battery Energy Storage Systems to get the most out of its potential Image
Sep 13 12 tweets 2 min read
REAL EQUITY INVESTING AND INTEREST RATES

Macro statistical analysis can become complicated, and I applaud the creators of that chart for trying to boil it all down to a simple conclusion

But let me also come at this topic from a rather different direction

A thread 🧵 First, we need to recognize that not all companies are the same

In fact from a fundamental point of view, at any one time very few companies in the stock market are worth investing in
Sep 13 22 tweets 4 min read
TESLA EXECUTIVE MARTIN VIECHA LAYS OUT THE NEXT 5 YEARS

He highlighted the potential for falling manufacturing costs per vehicle

Tesla wants to eventually put a cheaper vehicle on the road in time for its robotaxi service
businessinsider.com/tesla-next-5-y… Tesla executive Martin Viecha took investors through the company's next 5 years

- explaining which trends and metrics matter most

- and what to expect when it comes to a cheaper electric vehicle, a robotaxi service, and other potential future products
Sep 12 4 tweets 2 min read
EUROPE : THE LAST 20 YEARS

How the Central Banks became a dumping ground for financial assets that the market did not want to buy

€7 trillion of credit extended from 2015 to 2022

= €1 trillion per year of Zombie Financing The growth of European Central Bank assets provides a very clear and direct indicator of the health of the many participants in the broad European Economy

We live in a generous era, where Central Bank life support has become an accepted Fact of Life in place of market discipline
Sep 8 8 tweets 2 min read
Bavarian automotive supplier Dr. Schneider is bankrupt

In the middle of a restructuring and while looking for a strategic investor, the automotive supplier Dr. Schneider filed for bankruptcy

Around 1,400 employees are affected at the Bavarian location gettotext.com/looking-for-in… The company has submitted a corresponding application to the district court, reports the broadcaster Radioeins from Coburg and the “Neue Presse”

They are citing court information

The preliminary insolvency proceedings have already been opened
Sep 7 4 tweets 1 min read
Australian mining company Fortescue is using a specially designed electric "Infinity Train" to roll down a hill to recharge its massive batteries — without ever relying on an external charging system
futurism.com/the-byte/elect… "The Infinity Train has the capacity to be the world’s most efficient battery electric locomotive," Fortescue CEO Elizabeth Gaines said in a statement
Sep 3 6 tweets 2 min read
WHAT DOES IT COST TO GROW TESLA TO 20 MILLION VEHICLES ?

Elon Musk intends to invest $10 billion in Gigafactory Texas "over time"

Just for the sake of discussion, let's say that relates to Production Capacity of 2 million vehicles

- in fact it may get him rather more than that So that is $5 billion per million vehicles

Or $100 billion total to get to 20 million vehicles
Aug 26 4 tweets 1 min read
The Federal Communications Commission FCC denied Starlink nearly $900 million in rural broadband subsidies “without legal justification,” one of the regulator’s four commissioners said on August 24
spacenews.com/fcc-commission… While the FCC was obligated to review subsidies provisionally awarded for SpaceX’s broadband service in December 2020, Commissioner Brendan Carr said the agency exceeded “the scope of that authority” when it rejected them nearly two years later
Aug 26 4 tweets 2 min read
HIGHLIGHTS FROM JEFFRIES BERLIN VISIT

A. Company Targets for 2030 :

- Sell 20 million EVs per year

- Deploy 1,500 GWh of Energy Storage per year Image B. Stationary Batteries are no longer "cell-starved"

C. All cells for Berlin currently sourced from LG China

D. Berlin currently at 1,000 units per week with target of 5,000 units per week by 2022 year-end

E. Berlin full-capacity at 4 shifts / 7 days will be 500,000 per year Image
Aug 16 10 tweets 2 min read
“SELF-DRIVING BMW”

A test car with autonomous steering capability veered into oncoming traffic in Germany, killing one person and seriously injuring nine others, police said Tuesday
apnews.com/article/techno… A spokesman for police in the southwestern town of Reutlingen said the electric BMW iX with five people on board, including a young child, swerved out of its lane at a bend in the road, triggering a series of collisions involving four vehicles Monday afternoon
Aug 14 9 tweets 3 min read
PAYMENTS INDUSTRY - ADYEN

We have been using Adyen as a Reference Benchmark for the purpose of valuing Shift4

Now let's take a look at at the expected value of Adyen itself

The heart of the Valuation is our projection for Net Income, which starts with the Actual value for 2021 The trajectory of that Net Income can be better seen here

- with the expected growth rate declining below our 15% Equity Discount Rate after 2037
Aug 7 22 tweets 6 min read
SHIFT4 QUARTERLY RESULTS - 2022 Q2

So how did they do ?

Let's take a look from Top to Bottom

First : Gross Revenues

- that's quite a bump up, reaching $507 million for the quarter

JPR Chart 🧵 Which clearly puts them above trend on the growth chart
Aug 6 14 tweets 4 min read
WHEN WILL SHIFT4 BECOME A $50 BILLION COMPANY ?

Will it be in 7 years ?

Or in 5 years ?

Let's take a look at this Investment Opportunity

And let's start by noting that Shift4 ticker FOUR is currently trading with a Market Cap of around $3-4 billion

JPR007 analysis thread 🧵 So we are talking about a potential 12x to 15x Valuation Increase

- these are the kinds of returns that Peter Lynch was looking for

- these are the kinds of returns that we should be looking for as Real Equity Investors
Jul 31 6 tweets 3 min read
FOR YOUR REFERENCE :

The Invesco QQQ ETF is an exchange-traded fund that tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index

The Nasdaq 100 Index excludes Financial Services companies

QQQ stock holdings are dominated by big tech companies such as Apple, Amazon, Google, and Meta (formerly Facebook) COMPARE :

The Russell 1000 Index attempts to show a very broad cross-section of listed companies

The S&P 500 significantly underperforms the Russell 1000

The S&P 100 significantly outperforms the Russell 1000

Invesco QQQ is a reasonable proxy for the S&P 500 Index
Jul 30 12 tweets 2 min read
REALITY HITS HOME

General Motors' Cruise Robotaxi Unit Is Losing $5 Million A Day

The unit has lost nearly $5 billion since 2018 and the losses are accelerating now that the company has started charging for rides in San Francisco
insideevs.com/news/600734/ge… GM said on July 26 it lost $500 million on Cruise during the second quarter of 2022 as it began charging for rides in a limited area of San Francisco in early June
Jul 20 11 tweets 4 min read
TESLA EARNINGS REPORT - 2022 Q2 CHARTS

We have updated our charts for Tesla 2022 Q2 quarterly financial data and posted them online in the link below

This thread 🧵 will share these charts for your easy access

First : Revenues - Total and Automotive Volume of Deliveries and Average Price per Vehicle
Jul 14 13 tweets 5 min read
PAYMENTS INDUSTRY - ADYEN

Adyen is our Reference Benchmark for valuing Shift4 in the future

Here is a short thread with an overview of their financial history

@rookisaacman

@reisada Adyen's Revenue aka "Gross Profit" comes from capturing a slice of the transaction fees from the payments that they handle
Jul 13 11 tweets 2 min read
NEW PANASONIC BATTERY FACTORY IN USA FOR 4680 CELLS

Panasonic Holdings will invest several billion dollars in a second U.S. electric vehicle battery factory in Kansas to supply a new high-capacity battery for Tesla, Nikkei has learned
asia.nikkei.com/Business/Autom… The decision follows Tesla's opening of a second American EV factory in Texas in April to meet brisk demand

Panasonic's move comes as competitors from China, South Korea and Europe ramp up investment in additional production