Thread by @Dr_D_Robertson

A comparison of case rates and hospitalizations at the beginning of the second and the current wave.

(We can't do this for cases in the first wave as mass testing didn't exist.)

A short thread.

In August/September last year, cases started in 20-29 year olds and then moved up to older and younger age groups.

This is the case for this wave: May/June 2021. Cases starting in 10-19 year olds and moving to older and younger age groups. Over this period we see a doubling in 60-69, 70-79, and 80+ age groups but from a *very low base*.

We hope and expect that there will be considerable resistance from vaccinations in the age groups that have been vaccinated.

And we do see that resistance in *hospitalizations*.

If we look at the second wave (August/September 2020) hospitalizations in the same time period as cases in the chart above, we can clearly see hospitalizations in the older age groups.

In the current wave, we still see hospitalizations, but not to the same extent.

However, we *do* see hospitalizations. The next week will be interesting to see how hospitalizations change in *all* age groups.

The wave is still relatively early in its evolution (especially for hospitalizations).

There is however a risk that increases in cases in all age groups translate into a significant number of hospitalizations (significant in the sense of high pressure on the health system).