Thread by @EMxSarah

#EMReadingList: Day off & re-reading Amanda Ripley's (2008) The Unthinkable, the next @Epicenter_EM book club pick. As always I'll share items for EM/disaster mgmt folks as I go. Looking at those tabs there should be lots. #EMGTwitter if you've read it, what are your takeaways?

A motto for disaster/EM researchers&students: "Knowledge will grow scientific only after the most faithful examination of many catastrophies"(vii) from Samuel H. Prince's 1920 Catastrophe & Social Change, i.e. the first study of disaster, the one about the 1917 Halifax explosion.

"These days, we tend to think of disasters as acts of God and government. Regular people only feature in the equation as victims, which is a shame. Because regular people are the most important people at a disaster scene, every time" (xi). Still pretty accurate 13 years on...

Ripley's survival arc Phase 1: Denial, eg defaulting to 'all is ok'. "Given time to think, ppl in disasters need information like they need shelter+water. Their brains lack the patterns they need to make a good decision, so they wisely search for better data"(9). This is milling.

Elia Zedeño's description in Ch 1 of evacuating from the WTC on 9/11 & her thoughts is one of the most fascinating descriptions of individual emergency response that I've ever read: desire not to react, trying to explain away the situation, cycles of fear or anger then calm, etc.

"As it turned out, the victims of Katrina were not disproportionately poor; they were disproportionately old. 3/4 of the dead were over 60 [...] 1/2 were over 75" (28). Experiencing Category 5 Hurricane Camille in 1969 & living created denial about the possible impact of Katrina.

I love this! We are taught that Risk = Probability × Consequence. However Ripley suggests a revised equation which better captures the human making the calculation:

Risk = Probability × Consequence × Dread or Optimism.

Could I get this on a mug, please?

I smiled at this reference to Denis Mileti (and disaster researchers in general): "Like a lot of disaster researchers, Mileti is perpetually disappointed. Luckily, he also has a sense of humor" (43).

How can we make emergency alerts and warnings more effective? "the people in charge of warning us should treat us with respect. It's surprising how rarely warnings explain why you should do something, not just what you should do" (44).

"Other than fire drills, which are usually not very realistic anyway, there aren't many opportunities to get to know your disaster personality in a safe environment. There should be disaster amusement parks filled w simulation rides" (77). Hey, that might not be a bad idea!

"Resilience is a precious skill. Ppl who have it tend to also have 3 underlying advantages: a belief that they can influence life events; a tendency to find meaningful purpose in life's turmoil; and a conviction that they can learn from both positive & negative experiences" (91).

Note to disaster filmmakers: "Contrary to popular expectations, this is what happens in a real disaster. Civilization holds. Ppl move in grps whenever they can. They are usually far more polite than they are normally. They look out for one another& they maintain hierarchies"(110)

How we see the world influences how we interact with it: "the enduring expectation that regular people will panic leads to all kinds of distrust on the part of neighbors, politicians, and police officers. [...] The fear of panic may be more dangerous than panic itself" (143).

"Like the fear of panic, the fear of litigation is a silent partner in emergency management" (211).

Final thoughts: Despite the serious topic, this book is ultimately hopeful. Hopeful that we can prepare ourselves to better deal with disasters. The first step is understanding how the brain works in extreme situations & how we react. This book should be required reading for EMs

Final quote: "The best way to negotiate stress is through repeated, realistic training. [...] The trick is to embed the behavior in the subconscious, so that it is automatic, almost like the rest of the fear response"(75). Your brain is your greatest survival tool. Get it ready!