Thread by @coloradotravis

Okay let's talk about the *next* world reserve currency.

Not what country will have it - who knows on that front - but what the shape of it will be.

Because these things follow discrete patterns.
1/

The first pattern is that there is a force projection component to it, but... you know what let's come back to that.

Because the first aspect is really about who protects trade.

Whoever protects the economically dominant trade lanes is the reserve currency.
2/

So like there were times back in the day where this was roads.

And this is why historians are always yammering on about how great Rome's roads were (also weirdly about concrete: "oh my gawd these guys could concrete you should see their concrete blah blah")

Anyhow: roads.
3/

This was before we could build boats worth a damn so roads were a big deal because that's how the real bougie trade (inter-sovereign trade) happened.

So they were the reserve currency.

Then some dork (likely a primitive quant variant) figured out how to do the boat thing.
4/

And since then it's been about boats. There were phases of this but that's really boring, so just figure whoever controls the oceanic trade lanes is The Money Boss™

It's literally like Catan with the longest road, but again: we're better than roads now.
5/

Why is it like this? Well look: whoever controls this stuff also protects it.

And protecting it means adjudicating it. And adjudication is often settled with money tokens of the adjudicating sovereign.

Plus also, they're the biggest sovereign so if shit goes down...
6/