Travis Kimmel Profile picture
@RealVision President || BEARLORD || Respectfully Aggressive Philosophy degrees are worth it. Personal account; up to 63% of tweets may contain sarcasm.
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2 Aug
TETHER: WWE RAW OCTAGON BATTLE

Okay so one of the things some may not know given my recent penchant for incessant trolling of Team Cryptoid is that I was quite the Bitcoin bull last year.

Like imagine this same level good natured obnoxiousness, but a bull.

What changed?
1/
Well, to start at the beginning: I have owned BTC on and off since about 2012 (wow was it a PITA to buy back then, lol!).

In fact, starting in about 2018 I had a recurring auto-purchase set up in Coinbase that hit every time I got a paycheck.
2/
My rationale in the early days of ownership was that I thought it could be a legitimately interesting form of “internet money” which makes a lot of sense to me, because I’ve previously been a WoW gold farmer, an ISK banker, etc.

Like - I get it. Digital money rocks.
3/
Read 19 tweets
31 Jul
Okay a couple things on this thread from my dear friend Fat.

First off, follow him because he’s fun and if you’re a tactical trader you’ll love his feed.

Second, he makes some points here.

But also, let’s talk briefly about How To Bear.
1/
First off, bears are mostly wrong. If you’re a fragile, wisp-like little creature this game is not for you.

The crowd wants things to go up, and so that is where the dominant winds on any day will blow.

You’re also fighting passive flows - buyers at any price.
2/
So to be bearish *about a point in time* is somewhat questionable.

I’ve certainly tried it, and it’s generally not very great.

So how then to bear, and why to bear at all?

Well the main *reason* to bear, IMO, is systemic fragility.
3/
Read 9 tweets
30 Jul
The banking system now feels ready for the rug.

Which shouldn’t be too much of a surprise, right?
1/2
…because we were watching them get ready a few months back.

2/2

h/t @AlessioUrban
I love how they’re like “Do the taper quickly, man - this shit is convex and we wanna see it pump!”

Subtlety is a lost art.
Read 4 tweets
29 Jul
QE, Liquidity Removal, and the Alchemy of Money

I’ve been watching @MetreSteven say stuff like “QE removes liquidity” on here for a while after which people sort of stare blankly or roll their eyes.

Let’s give it one more go, via a traditionally quirky explainer.
1/
At the heart of every monetary system is an act of alchemy.

Let us start by describing this act: the act of monetary creation.

At the center of alchemy lies the Philosopher's Stone - the prime reagent for money creation.

For a long time this was gold.
2/
For if you had gold, you could lend against it.

From the Philosopher's stone of gold, we could spawn two things:

1. Circulating money
2. Debt

Money and debt are twins, both born of the philosopher's stone and their fates forever linked.
3/
Read 15 tweets
27 Jul
In murmurs and whispers
Around the exchange

The Vol Lords of FinTwit
Discussed something strange

The market was different
Things had been rearranged

For around Volmageddon
Something had changed
1/4
It's not quite the Dollar
It's not quite the Yen

It felt like Renmimbi
But again, even then

The models they shared
And discussed amongst friends

Didn't quite capture
The whole of the trend
2/4
And yes, there was passive
As everyone knew

That persistent blind buyer
Throwing values askew

This has to be Covid
Surely that must be true?

Or is there some facet
Of liquidity that's new?
3/4
Read 4 tweets
26 Jul
A curious fact cluster:

- Evergrande dumps 7.5%, CN50 5.5%

- BTC absolutely moons, but in 2 mins and driven by Binance USDT pair (which spikes 20% higher than USD pairs do).

- Next day Tether charges drop

Now, that’s all circumstantial to be sure but…
1/2
The BTC community has long predicted that Tether troubles would lead, initially, to a BTC price spike.

Perhaps they were right.

Lets see if anyone recognizes it now, having preciously predicted it.
2/2
This was supposed to say ‘previously’ but ‘previously’ is nicely catty so good add IMO.
Read 4 tweets
25 Jul
“The fate of the South Sea scheme has, much sooner than I expected, verified what you told me.

Most people thought it would come, but no man prepared for it. No man considered it would come like a thief in the night, exactly as it happens in the case of death.”

- Alexander Pope
“The belief that the government would support the share price above its intrinsic value was not a singular occurrence.

It recurred in Japan in the 1980s when it was argued that the Ministry of Finance would not allow share prices to fall.”

- excerpt, Devil Take the Hindmost
“The mania of 1719-20 was, exactly as were later manias of this kind, induced by a preceding period of innovation which transformed the economic and upset the preexisting state of things.”

- Joseph Schumpeter
Read 4 tweets
22 Jul
So I drew this, it's largely to scale (except for the really tiny stuff, some of which should be smaller).

Here is the source data if you're all militant about it and want to check: federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/c…
1/3 Image
This is what the money printing crew is freaking out about when we talk about "the Fed giving money directly to people!" - not only is it not 'giving' (it's a loan) but like... just look at the scale here.
2/3 Image
Now - if you're gonna tell us that the Fed is "printing money" or whatever, how about you go ahead and show us on here how that happens.

Point to where on the balance sheet the Fed hurt you.

I'll wait.
3/3
Read 4 tweets
17 Jul
4h chart of (BTC_on_Coinbase - BTC_on_Binance)

I'm finding this really interesting.

Any theories?
As noticed by @Bitfinexed - a chart of (BTCUSDT - BTCUSD) is the same chart. Both pairs on binance here.

Curiously, this does not appear to be reflected in USDT/USD pairs where I've got data on them.
Okay the more I think about it, this sort of has to be an issue with the arb trade right?

Like you’ve got a 1% arb just sitting there waiting to be taken and like… nobody is taking it.

Why?
Read 4 tweets
16 Jul
Okay so it's been almost a month since our last "what day is it" and thing have progressed somewhat, though curiously not as much as we'd have imagined if this were a linear 1:1 relationship.

It actually looks like a slower wave with bigger amplitude.

Today is ~August 27
1/
So here's the big map view, and we can see nearly all commodities are rolling over here, with the exception of crude but that *may* be happening here too.

Let's look a little deeper.
2/ Image
Here's gold, then and now.

Funnily enough, in 2008 this was a bit of a bear flag and it sort of looks like we could get very similar action here within this big megaphone thingy.

Anyhow.
3/ ImageImage
Read 14 tweets
16 Jul
The Yield Curve: on its Manipulations and Visualization

Imagine there’s a container like this and the blue stuff is a liquid.

And that liquid represents money. Like, all the money.
1/
Now of course money does grow and shrink depending on all sorts of things.

But instead of paying attention to “total volume,” let’s imagine that this liquid represents 100% of the money at all times, independent of how much there is.
2/
Oh and there’s this little red rubber membrane across the top of it, and if you push down on it the liquid moves to the sides.

3/
Read 12 tweets
14 Jul
Portraits Of Solvency

Faith sat down heavily. Her younger brother Ethan had just called, worried he’ll lose the house. Hell, he might, she’s not sure.

Still, seems like the Feds have been willing to help so far so why would they stop?

So she just tried to calm him.
1/
Still, she’s worried. Worried for Ethan, worried for her own family, worried for everyone in this weird new world.

But it’s okay because John’s a trader now. He got into it during the pandemic - really applied himself and has been doing great.
2/
So great that they’ve got that new Highlander they wanted a few months back.

Faith does the family books and payments like that made her nervous, but with how well John understands the crypto markets these days she let him talk her into it.
3/
Read 21 tweets
7 Jul
A FinTwit Menagerie

Phenotypes, behaviors, and identification.
Quants

Get mangled during regime changes but grow steadily in power and arrogance as regime persists. Most can code, kinda.

Often seen flexing math abilities or prominently displaying greek letters.
Macros

Spend most of the time being “eventually right.” Generally wrong at any given moment. High skill cap: the brief moments they are right can make them godlike but DOA if they get it wrong.

These are the people who seem to know a lot but everyone is making fun of.
Read 12 tweets
5 Jul
Why do business cycles end?

And some follow-on observations about where we are today.
1/
So first let’s talk about business & cycles.

Much of business is really just about projections and risk management.

The tricky thing about business is that too much risk can kill you, but so can too little risk.
2/
The industry I come from (VC-backed software) is always reminding is not to take too little risk. Because our businesses have trivial incremental unit cost, we’re encouraged to juice our burn rates and acquire customers as fast as possible.

And that’s generally sound advice!
3/
Read 19 tweets
26 Jun
Reserve Currencies and Game Theory

Continuing on here in the reserve currency theme, let’s also touch on the whole ‘game theory’ thing since that comes up every now and then.

First: what is game theory?
1/
Well it’s juts a way to model strategic decision-making amongst rational actors. The field is deep and very rich, and my first interaction with it was actually when studying International Relations (before I discovered the god-discipline, Philosophy).

It’s a very rich field.
2/
And we can apply it to thinking about money.

Obviously certain crypto proponents often hand wave at it, & what they’re suggesting is that Bitcoin is so valuable that a nation would be self-sabotaging to ban it.

But of course this is just a banal rhetorical fallacy.

Anyhow.
3/
Read 17 tweets
26 Jun
Okay let's talk about the *next* world reserve currency.

Not what country will have it - who knows on that front - but what the shape of it will be.

Because these things follow discrete patterns.
1/
The first pattern is that there is a force projection component to it, but... you know what let's come back to that.

Because the first aspect is really about who protects trade.

Whoever protects the economically dominant trade lanes is the reserve currency.
2/
So like there were times back in the day where this was roads.

And this is why historians are always yammering on about how great Rome's roads were (also weirdly about concrete: "oh my gawd these guys could concrete you should see their concrete blah blah")

Anyhow: roads.
3/
Read 12 tweets
23 Jun
Okay look - so my buddy @MetreSteven says stuff like "QE is deflationary" and then a bunch of people who can't systems think or see farther than 5 seconds into the future laugh and say "but why are prices going up wood office guy?"

Let's try and resolve the delta here.
1/
Apologies, but you'll need to be mildly familiar with this thread and/or the notion that money is inherently temporal.

It's a pretty fast read tho, so just skim it and then we can discover why QE is deflationary together.

Promise.
2/

Now that you're familiar with the layer cake (you are, right?), let's imagine a society that has this much money.

But we know that money is temporal, so talking about it like a big bundle like this just won't do.

Let's make some assumptions about its temporal arrangement.
3/
Read 21 tweets
21 Jun
Alright well I mentioned Weimar one time and everyone piled on saying that it didn’t make sense so I guess let’s talk about it real fast here.

And how The Hyper™ actually is happening right now, but not in the way people think.
1/
First, a brief recap of Weimar.

So Germany lost a war and the whole world decided to saddle them up with debt (reparations) as punishment, since this was the way of things back then.

But that wasn’t even the whole of it.
2/
Germany had also borrowed a bunch of money to fund the war presuming that they would win it and be able to do the opposite: to extract reparations.

But they lost.

And since the debts were denominated (more or less) in gold back then, this was a lot of debt. Too much.
3/
Read 19 tweets
19 Jun
Nothing better than seeing a quant dump on charts because they don’t know what they’re for.

Charts tell you how people are feeling.

They’re like facial expressions.

Well…they’re like how people who aren’t quants use facial expressions. For communicating (there’s books on it).
(I say this as a person who has read these books my dears 😘)
Everyone is asking for books.

Check out Paul Ekman’s work.

It’s basically a quant framework for understanding human displays of emotion.

Great stuff.
Read 4 tweets
18 Jun
Welp. So after a few hours of thinking, it turns out I don't really want to tackle this question. This is not a rewarding thing to discuss on the internet, at any level.

But I'm still gonna give it a go because I respect the heck out of @kevinmuir.

Anyhow, here goes.
1/
Stablecoins started as a transmission vehicle.

"Let's send money around, but on better rails."

This is fine and interesting.

But then they became counterfeits. I don't know why and don't particularly care, but it's now a knowable fact that many of them are.

Why?
2/
Well they all rely on the claim that they're worth a dollar. And they trade like they're worth a dollar.

But what makes something worth a dollar?

Really only **being a dollar.**

Don't believe me? Okay - tell me how to hedge 1k worth of "dollar value" without taking a loss.
3/
Read 18 tweets
17 Jun
Oh my gosh, how fun!

Okay so a few weeks back (see chain below) we noted that the macro & sentiment & liquidity are sort of setting up to be a big echo of 2008.

Liquidity chronicles, chapter 3:

Today is August 6, 2008
1/
Gold, then and now:

Same little bucket maneuver with the fake breakout, then a dump.

Rocky path ahead if this is a repeat, but honestly not the worst thing if you have the stomach for it:
2/
Silverbugs... well I dunno friends, this looks like it could get kind of rough in a repeat scenario here.

Sorry. Look - maybe this is all wrong tho.
3/
Read 9 tweets