Thread by @rubiconcapital_

1/ Grab some coffee

The “3rd wave” of C19 was LESS DEADLY than the “2nd wave”..

In-hospital fatality rates for Toronto patients:
2nd wave: 27%
3rd wave: 14%

The 3rd wave produced ~the same # of hospitalizations as the 2nd wave (~4,000), but just ~HALF the deaths (602 vs 1,054)

2/

The stark wave-to-wave in-hospital fatality rate differences is most pronounced when assessing only NON-INTUBATED patients (90% of all hospitalizations, ICU+ward):

2nd wave: 23%
3rd wave: 11%

(less than HALF!)

3/

Looking at the data another way, for NON-INTUBATED patients, the daily # of admissions in the 3rd wave was 55% HIGHER than the 2nd wave, yet the daily fatalities was 28% LOWER… (see bottom two charts)

4/

So, to be crystal clear:

In Toronto, if you entered the hospital with/for C-19 in the 3rd wave, your chances of surviving and leaving the hospital were…

~DOUBLE

…vs. the 2nd wave.

5/

Side note: peculiarly, despite the stark differences in NON-INTUBATED patient fatality rates, there was MINIMAL DIFFERENCE in the in-hospital fatality rate for INTUBATED patients in the 3rd wave vs. the 2nd wave..

2nd wave: 56%
3rd wave: 50%

6/

In any case, 90% of hospitalized C19 cases among Toronto patients were NON-INTUBATED (roughly the same ratio as the 2nd wave), and in the 3rd wave their survival rate was DOUBLE vs. 2nd wave.

7/

This data appears to be inconsistent with the below table from the Ontario Science Table (@COVIDSciOntario), presented on April 1st, 2021, indicating the 3rd wave variants were more deadly…?

8/

The above empirical data also seems to contradict the fear narrative around the UK variant-driven 3rd wave…

9/

Could the # of hospitalizations in the 3rd wv have been inflated by increased surveillance testing for SARS-CoV-2 among all hospitalized patients? @anthonyfurey writes that just 36% of kids admitted with C19 were there FOR C19. What about other ages?

10/

At the very least, @DrKaliBarrett, @SteiniBrown , @BeateSander , @dfisman, @anthonydale, @IrfanDhalla, @isaacbogoch, @drmwarner, can you please explain why hospital outcomes in the 3rd wave among Toronto patients are orders-of-magnitude BETTER in the 3rd wave vs the 2nd?

11/

Would any other physicians care to comment on this data?

Why does the 3rd wave pathogen appear to have double the in-hospital survival rate vs. the 2nd wave pathogen?

End/

Thank you.

Sources: open.toronto.ca/dataset/covid-…