Thread by @connolly_s

A #disbandNphet thread for @MichealMartinTD @LeoVaradkar @EamonRyan @DonnellyStephen @CMOIreland I'm sure @FatEmperor has videos pointing out this, but here's an easy to follow thread using data from worldometers.info/coronavirus/co… and basic primary school mathematics (1/7)

I think everyone can agree that what we want to avoid is deaths. Deaths follow cases, but by how much? Well we can take a look at the UK data and see. This January the cases peaked on Jan 10th and deaths peaked on Jan 25th that's 15 days... is that repeatable? (2/7)

The previous peak was Nov 6th for cases and Nov 25th for deaths... that's 19 days. We cannot do a meaningful comparison for March 2020 as everyone was low on testing can the case numbers are low (3/7)

Let's take Ireland for a comparison. We've have a slightly lower but wider peak for deaths compared with cases (in part because of the testing backlog narrowing cases) but the lag is something like Jan 10th to Jan 27th or 17 days (4/7)

So we have 15 days, 17 days and 19 days... let's say the lag is the average of 17 days. But that's not all... let's look again at the ratio between deaths and cases for Jan UK had 1241/59434 = 0.0209 For Nov it was 466/22350 = 0.0209 (5/7)

What that means is that we expect in the UK that for every case, 17 days later we will have 0.0209 deaths... Now what does the delta variant look like? Is that the same? Let's look at UK cases 17 days ago, multiply by 0.0209 and that should match today's deaths (6/7)

On Jun 13 the UK had 7145 cases, 7145x0.0209 = 149 That means *if the delta variant is as deadly as the previous waves* then we would expect 149 deaths in the UK today... but the data says 16. That's basically 1/10th #disbandNphet (7/7)