I see @duolingo didn’t practice “never deploy to production on a Friday”. They’ve managed to break all family plans. My wife is very very annoyed at having lost her ad free experience.

Any ETA on restoration? (hopefully not a case of disgruntled ex-employee on their way out!) Bug report 1

https://twitter.com/mightyaggron/status/1936121927279820986

Ireland 🇮🇪 PCR lab tests 2022-09-15

• Positives ↓25 to 271
• Tests ↓280 to 2628
• Positivity ↑0.1 to 10.3%

• Antigen data not currently available

• PROJECTED total ↓128 to 710

NOTE: Projection based on recent historical ratio PCR:Antigen of 1:1.618 Ireland 🇮🇪 Covid Hospital general 2022-09-15

• Occupancy with +ve ↑3 to 236
• Admission with +ve ↑5 to 19
• Post admission +ve ↑6 to 17

Ireland 🇮🇪 Antigen update thread

Another week another update of the antigen figures Ireland 🇮🇪 PCR lab tests 2022-09-08

• Positives ↓40 to 287
• Tests ↓408 to 2745
• Positivity ↑0.1 to 10.5%

• Antigen +ve ↓81 to 415

• Total ↓121 to 702

Compare with

https://twitter.com/connolly_s/status/1567847703496761344

Ireland 🇮🇪 PCR lab tests 2022-09-14

• Positives ↑22 to 283
• Tests ↑72 to 2635
• Positivity ↑0.6 to 10.7%

• Antigen +ve ↓99 to 542

• Total ↓77 to 825 Ireland 🇮🇪 Covid Hospital general 2022-09-14

• Occupancy with +ve ↓24 to 233
• Admission with +ve ↓4 to 14
• Post admission +ve ↓1 to 11

NOTE: Occupancy is now the lowest it has been for 11 days since 2022-09-03 when it was 232

Ireland 🇮🇪 PCR lab tests 2022-09-13

• Positives ↑75 to 249
• Tests ↑59 to 2241
• Positivity ↑3.1 to 11.1%

• Antigen data not currently available

• PROJECTED total ↑187 to 621

NOTE: Projection based on recent historical ratio PCR:Antigen of 1:1.494 Ireland 🇮🇪 Covid Hospital general 2022-09-13

• Occupancy with +ve ↓7 to 257
• Admission with +ve ↑2 to 18
• Post admission +ve ↓4 to 10

Remember folks, science can *never* prove something is true, it can only prove something is false, and like Sherlock, whatever is left standing must be true (until we prove even that false)
@1000Frolly is saying that the data proves a hypothesis false… I see science at work

https://twitter.com/1000frolly/status/1569610693686751233

And if you want to explore some of the ways data can support @1000Frolly claiming a hypothesis is false, I suggest you have a look at the radiosonde data. Plot molar density against pressure and explain how you always get two linear regions (and sometimes a third)…

Ireland 🇮🇪 PCR lab tests 2022-09-12

• Positives ↑11 to 157
• Tests ↑508 to 1965
• Positivity ↓2.0 to 8.0%

• Antigen data not currently available

• PROJECTED total ↑28 to 392

NOTE: Projection based on recent historical ratio PCR:Antigen of 1:1.495 Ireland 🇮🇪 Covid Hospital general 2022-09-12

• Occupancy with +ve ↑24 to 264
• Admission with +ve ↑1 to 16
• Post admission +ve ↓4 to 14

Ireland 🇮🇪 PCR lab tests 2022-09-11

• Positives ↓93 to 146
• Tests ↓655 to 1457
• Positivity ↓1.3 to 10.0%

• Antigen data not currently available

• PROJECTED total ↓232 to 364

NOTE: Projection based on recent historical ratio PCR:Antigen of 1:1.495 Ireland 🇮🇪 Covid Hospital general 2022-09-11

• Occupancy with +ve ↑2 to 240
• Admission with +ve ↓5 to 15
• Post admission +ve ↓2 to 18

Ireland 🇮🇪 PCR lab tests 2022-09-10

• Positives ↓45 to 239
• Tests ↓176 to 2112
• Positivity ↓1.1 to 11.3%

• Antigen data not currently available

• PROJECTED total ↓113 to 596

NOTE: Projection based on recent historical ratio PCR:Antigen of 1:1.495 Ireland 🇮🇪 Covid Hospital general 2022-09-10

• Occupancy with +ve ↓4 to 238
• Admission with +ve ↓3 to 20
• Post admission +ve ↑1 to 20

1/ Here’s a tweet by tweet translation

https://twitter.com/yaffaraz/status/1564306223062736896

2/

https://twitter.com/yaffaraz/status/1564306224686006275

Ireland 🇮🇪 PCR lab tests 2022-08-29

• Positives ↓49 to 188
• Tests ↑359 to 2088
• Positivity ↓4.7 to 9.0%

• Antigen data not currently available

• PROJECTED total ↓121 to 464

NOTE: Projection based on recent historical ratio PCR:Antigen of 1:1.467 Ireland 🇮🇪 Covid Hospital general 2022-08-29

• Occupancy with +ve ↑18 to 268
• Admission with +ve ← at 17
• Post admission +ve ↑8 to 23

Ireland 🇮🇪 PCR lab tests 2022-08-28

• Positives ↓51 to 237
• Tests ↓703 to 1729
• Positivity ↑1.9 to 13.7%

• Antigen data not currently available

• PROJECTED total ↓126 to 585

NOTE: Projection based on recent historical ratio PCR:Antigen of 1:1.467 Ireland 🇮🇪 Covid Hospital general 2022-08-28

• Occupancy with +ve ↑1 to 250
• Admission with +ve ↓4 to 17
• Post admission +ve ↓4 to 15

Ireland 🇮🇪 PCR lab tests 2022-08-27

• Positives ↓35 to 288
• Tests ↓233 to 2432
• Positivity ↓0.3 to 11.8%

• Antigen data not currently available

• PROJECTED total ↓86 to 711

NOTE: Projection based on recent historical ratio PCR:Antigen of 1:1.467 Ireland 🇮🇪 Covid Hospital general 2022-08-27

• Occupancy with +ve ↓8 to 249
• Admission with +ve ↑13 to 21
• Post admission +ve ↑12 to 19

NOTE: Occupancy is now the lowest it has been for 83 days since 2022-08-27 when it was 232

Gompertz fitting Irish testing data... the promised thread

As a reminder here's an animation showing (top left) the two wave hypothesis parameters from July 7th for various smoothing widths... 1/n

https://twitter.com/connolly_s/status/1549004047532920832

If this fit is accurate then it means that every wave in Ireland has had a Gompertz rate constant, k, of 0.10±0.01/day... and I've looked at other countries like USA, Isreal, Australia, etc... every isolated wave without overlaps fits a Gompertz with k=0.10/day 🤯 2/n

Ireland 🇮🇪 Antigen update thread

I am a bit late with this thread due to being away last week... here goes anyway for posterity...

Also note the lab tests get updated over about a week, so expect some differences in those... but this makes them great for time series analysis Ireland 🇮🇪 PCR lab tests 2022-07-07

• Positives ↓470 to 2361
• Tests ↓323 to 7090
• Positivity ↓4.9 to 33.3%

• Antigen +ve ↓242 to 3098

• Total ↓712 to 5459

Contrast with

https://twitter.com/connolly_s/status/1545050203933118464

Ireland 🇮🇪 PCR lab tests 2022-07-18

• Positives ↓198 to 891
• Tests ↓373 to 3158
• Positivity ↓2.6 to 28.2%

• Antigen data not currently available

• PROJECTED total ↓446 to 2006

NOTE: Projection based on recent historical ratio PCR:Antigen of 1:1.252 Ireland 🇮🇪 Covid Hospital general 2022-07-18

• Occupancy with +ve ↑16 to 903
• Admission with +ve ↑5 to 49
• Post admission +ve ↑26 to 43

Ireland 🇮🇪 PCR lab tests 2022-07-17

• Positives ↓309 to 1089
• Tests ↓859 to 3531
• Positivity ↓1.0 to 30.8%

• Antigen data not currently available

• PROJECTED total ↓696 to 2452

NOTE: Projection based on recent historical ratio PCR:Antigen of 1:1.252 Ireland 🇮🇪 Covid Hospital general 2022-07-17

• Occupancy with +ve ↓1 to 887
• Admission with +ve ↓7 to 44
• Post admission +ve ↓22 to 17

Ireland 🇮🇪 PCR lab tests 2022-07-16

• Positives ↓1199 to 1398
• Tests ↓2190 to 4390
• Positivity ↓7.6 to 31.8%

• Antigen data not currently available

• PROJECTED total ↓2700 to 3148

NOTE: Projection based on recent historical ratio PCR:Antigen of 1:1.252 Ireland 🇮🇪 Covid Hospital general 2022-07-16

• Occupancy with +ve ↓55 to 888
• Admission with +ve ↓7 to 51
• Post admission +ve ↓29 to 39

Ireland 🇮🇪 PCR lab tests 2022-07-15

• Positives ↑1079 to 2467
• Tests ↑1391 to 5938
• Positivity ↑11.0 to 41.5%

• Antigen data not currently available

• PROJECTED total ↑2430 to 5555

NOTE: Projection based on recent historical ratio PCR:Antigen of 1:1.252 Ireland 🇮🇪 Covid Hospital general 2022-07-15

• Occupancy with +ve ↓38 to 943
• Admission with +ve ↓17 to 58
• Post admission +ve ↑3 to 68

Two points:
1. If not properly fitted it’s not doing anything at all
2. If properly fitted then a MODEL virus… not a real one mind, a MODEL, maybe has viral loads reduced…

https://twitter.com/MSmelkinsonPhD/status/1524480077693521920

What is the model? bacteriophage PhiX174

At least they’re using an actual virus… which is better than a bunch of other studies I’ve seen…

Ireland 🇮🇪 PCR lab tests 2022-05-10

• Positives ↓45 to 604
• Tests ↑340 to 5578
• Positivity ↓1.6 to 10.8%

• Antigen +ve ↑380 to 1048

(30 day graph y-axis scaling fixed) Ireland 🇮🇪 Covid Hospital general 2022-05-10

• Occupancy with +ve ↓36 to 268
• Admission with +ve ↓1 to 21
• Post admission +ve ↑11 to 21

(30 day graph y-axis scaling fixed)