Thread by @john_actuary

Monday vaccine update:

Back after a short Cornish break, during which the run rate has continued to fall.

189k total doses is down 28%, and 1st doses of 77k are down nearly a half. The 7D total has fallen under 1m, as the number left to do declines, as we'll see next.

1/

18-39 progress:

Over 30 there's little movement now. Under 30, we've probably got around 1.1m still to jab, assuming a final take-up of 72.5%.

Let's look how the numbers have moved over the last week next.

2/

You can see here how little movement there's been in the last week over 30, probably now mainly picking up those making slightly late decisions to get the jab. It's disappointing how poor NI is in comparison to the other countries though.

3/

Under 30, W looks also to be mopping up the last few. E and S are still making reasonable progress, but again NI looks very disappointing, being barely above 50%.

4/

England progress:

We're now 2 weeks from Stage 4 unlocking, so this broadly represents the likely level of protection that will be in place on the 19th.

Given poor (~35%) efficacy after 1 dose, there will still be around 15m adults under 50 without 2 dose protection.

5/

2nd doses of 111k and the 7D total remains at just over 1m a week, consistent with first doses 8 weeks prior. It should drift up to c1.5m a week soon, but no more unless the time period is reduced below 8 weeks.

6/

During the 4 week delay in moving to Stage 4 (allowing for the 2 weeks for protection to kick in), we've jabbed 4.9m with the first dose, and 5.8m with the second dose, rather less than one might have hoped for given the urgency because of Delta's transmission advantage.

7/

It's still not too late to have the jab, and with infections surging again, if anyone is still hesitant but wavering, it's worth remembering that the weakened link between infection and serious illness we can see in the data, is only for those protected by the vaccine.

8/8