Thread by @tomiahonen

Preliminary Trump Sentencing Thread 1/

I am doing my first preliminary estimate of TOTAL prison time awarded to Trump, now that we see his trials are coming, and have some visibility on the TYPES of crimes with Giuliani, Weisselberg, Roger Stone etc

("Number are my buddies!")

Preliminary Trump Sentencing Thread 2/

This thread builds partly on the reasoning in my Thread about the schedules of Trump trials coming up. You may find it helpful to first read this thread:

Preliminary Trump Sentencing Thread 3/

This thread is about YEARS of prison time. But often prison sentences are LIFE sentences. There are years associated with Life sentences that vary (state vs Federal etc). Here is short thread about Life and Years:

Preliminary Trump Sentencing Thread 4/

Based on that Thread on Life sentences and Trump (Giuliani & Weisselberg) old ages, I will use simplified math today for us:

State Life Sentences = 15 years
Federal Life Sentences = 20 years
Federal Natural Life Remaining = 25 years

Preliminary Trump Sentencing Thread 5/

And who the heck is this guy?

I am the most accurate numbers guy about the Trumpomess in the past 6 years not just here on Twitter but anywhere in the world, paid or free. I am an analyst in my day job (tech & media), written 12 books etc

Preliminary Trump Sentencing Thread 5/

I do a lot of analysis about the Trumpomess, some better some worse. And a lot of jokes mocking him

But my numbers are simply the best you can find. I calculated 2016 Top 3 finish of GOP primary fight before FIRST VOTE WAS CAST. Here on TW

Preliminary Trump Sentencing Thread 6/

I even nailed the DATE when Trump will clinch the 2016 GOP nomination BEFORE Iowa had started to vote.

I was dead on for Impeachments 1 & 2
I was dead on for the Senate trials of Trump 1 and 2

I was dead on for the 2020 election count

Preliminary Trump Sentencing Thread 7/

You remember 2020 eleciton night? I was the voice of sanity then. And into Wednesday. I said this is a big win for Joe. And by Thursday pundits started to agree and then we saw the result

Numbers Are My Buddies

Preliminary Trump Sentencing Thread 8/

I published the first SCHEDULE (= numbers!) about Trump prison paths. Giuliani, Weisselberg, Matt Gaetz, Roger Stone... The first such schedule ANYWHERE. Here on Twitter. And I nailed the first date of that forecast (Weisselberg Indictment)

Preliminary Trump Sentencing Thread 9/

You do not need to agree with my analysis. But caution. I am BY FAR the best NUMBERS guy on Trump. By FAR.

So take THAT thinking into my analysis. This guy has a track record now of 6 years. My numbers are LIKELY to be good :-)

Trump Sentencing Thread 10/

After all that bragging... My ANALYSIS today is based on 4 AREAS of crimes:

1 Weisselberg crimes
2 Giuliani crimes
3 Matt Gaetz related Pardon bribe crimes
4 Roger Stone crimes (= Jan 6)

It is not EVERYTHING. There are MORE crimes than these

Trump Sentencing Thread 11/

WEISSELBERG is 5 main types of crimes with SERIOUS prison time:
1. NY Tax Fraud
2. NY Money Laundering (for USA Mafia & Russian Mafia)
3. Sanctions Busting
4. Campaign & Inaugration financial fraud
5. Financial crimes during POTUS (emoluments etc)

Trump Sentencing Thread 12/

Manhattan DA has indicted Weisselberg on personal tax fraud & on Grand Larceny (so far, with more indictments coming if Allen doesn't flip). The tax fraud carries about 5 years, Grand Larceny about 7 years. They have the double bookkeeping = 12 years

Trump Sentencing Thread 13/

Weisselberg's SECOND criminal trial is by New York Attorney General, on Money Laundering. This carries life sentences. Trump has laundered for both US Mafia and for Russian Mafia. I will count a SINGLE state Life Sentence for each. 15 + 15 = 30 years

Trump Sentencing Thread 14/

Weisselberg's THIRD criminal trial is federal. Sanctions Busting. This is his biggest crime. This is a treasonous crime against the United States of America (on behalf of Putin). This is remaining life sentences. I estimate 2 so 2x 25 = 50 years

Trump Sentencing Thread 15/

Weisselberg 4 is campaign & inaugration financial fraud. Give him 5 years for both = 10 years

Weisselberg 5 is financial fraud while Trump POTUS. I add 5 years more from this (is likely more). So these groups add total 15 years

Trump Sentencing Thread 16/

Trump ALSO committed tax fraud in OTHER STATES (Mueller told us this). Those states are WAITING for New York to go first. They WANT their taxes due. Weisselberg gets 3 years each:
Illinois
California
New Jersey
Maryland/DC
Florida
Total = 15 years

Trump Sentencing Thread 17/

Weisselberg 'raw total' would be 122 years, if he did not flip. Of course he flips. He will flip SOON and likely only get 5 years plus $1 million back taxes - as long as he testifies against Trump on ALL THOSE CRIMES, New York, Federal & other states

Trump Sentencing Thread 18/

Weisselberg will flip on Trump. It means Trump is convicted on ALL THE ABOVE criminal financial cases.

Trump prison time is in some cases same, in some cases more than (raw count of) Weisselberg:

Trump Sentencing Thread 19/

Trump Weisselberg related prison time:
NY
NY taxes 10
Grand Larceny 7
Money Laundering (US Mafia) 15
Money Laundering (Russian Mafia) 15
FEDERAL
Sanctions Busting 25 + 25
Campaign + Inaugration 10 + 10
While POTUS 10
Oth State taxes 25
TOTAL 152 years

Trump Sentencing Thread 20/

NEXT we have the Giuliani crime spree. America's Vampire tried to commit more crimes than any criminal in history in shortest amount of time, because he foolishly believed Trump would pardon him. Now the notorious serial butt-dialer is an Ex Attorney

Trump Sentencing Thread 21/

Giuliani's thus-far known crimes include:
Ukraine (= Trump Impeachment 1)
Venezuela
Turkey
Big Lie 1 = Georgia
Big Lie 2 = Arizona
January 6th Insurrection
Rudy will be found to have committed MORE crimes but these are the ones I will now count

Trump Sentencing Thread 22/

Giuliani committed TWO SEPARATE crimes aimed at TWO different VICTIMS with Ukraine caper

Giuliani colluded with Putin's oligarch Firtash (who paid for Rudy's fees and the jet) to damage the United States of America in a treasounous crime (Ambassador)

Trump Sentencing Thread 23/

And Giuliani colluded with Trump (and Pompeo, others) to EXTORT Ukraine, to benefit Trump personally (this is Impeachment 1). Note these are DIFFERENT crimes with DIFFERNT Victims and DIFFERENT partners. Both involve Ukraine and Rudy

Trump Sentencing Thread 24/

Rudy Giuliani's biggest crime is the treasonous act against the USA and its ally, Ukraine, in a shooting war with Russia, by arranging the firing of USA's Ambassador to Ukraine, on behalf of Putin

Federal remaining life = 25 years in time

Trump Sentencing Thread 25/

That Putin crime arguably has TRUMP as a victim too. Trump will not get prison time for falling for Rudy's scheme

The Impeachment 1 extortion of Ukraine - THAT is extortion, federal 20 years more for Rudy (and Trump)

Trump Sentencing Thread 26/

We do not know yet who was involved in Venezuela. It could be GOP Nazi KKK bastards near Trump but not Trump himself. I give Rudy 10 years

On Turkey, Trump was of course involved. Here too I give Rudy 10

On Georgia & AZ Big Lie, I give 10 years each

Trump Sentencing Thread 27/

Finally on January 6th. Rudy Colludy was part of the planning team. I say planning an act of terrorism gets Rudy terrorism sentence remaining life federal = 25 years

And his speech on Jan 6 was deliberate agitation to terrorism a second 25 years

Trump Sentencing Thread 28/

The notorious serial buttdialer and alleged attorney Rudy Giuliani raw sentence so far is 130 years. Of COURSE Rudy flips, and plea bargains that down. I think he will still serve at least a decade. Most of those crimes involved TRUMP who cannot flip

Trump Sentencing Thread 29/

Trump Giuliani related prison time:
ROGUE FOREIGN POLICY
Ukraine 20 years
Turkey 10 years
BIG LIE
Georgia 10 years
Arizona 10 years
Jan 6 planning (with Giuliani)* 25 years
TOTAL 75 years

* note Trump gets MORE on Jan 6 with OTHER criminals (below)

Trump Sentencing Thread 30/

Next, after Weisselberg & Giuliani, lets go to Matt Gaetz. This is maybe what Trump fears the most. Not the teen rape part. It is what TRUMP did, and now is caught. Trump was selling pardons. Gaetz's partner Greenberg has flipped, has the documents

Trump Sentencing Thread 31/

The Honorable Rapey McForehead will be convicted to teen rape with MANDATORY MINIMUM sentence of 10 years, & unless he flips, he gets probably 25 years. There are 5 OTHER teen rapists. At least 2 rapists will flip for shorter sentence at Gaetz of Hell

Trump Sentencing Thread 32/

Statutory Gaetz's rapist partner Greenberg (pleaded guilty, awaiting sentencing) is singing so beautiful songs to Fed prosecutors, they gave him THREE MONTHS MORE time to testify, after one month of ratting out rapist gang. There is MORE shit to come

Trump Sentencing Thread 33/

Trump FEARS this Matt Gaetz angle so much, Trump is PAYING for part of Matt's legal costs. He is NOT paying Rudy's costs - and look at how much trouble Trump is with Rudy. You will see in just a moment WHY Trump fears Gaetz aftermath

Trump Sentencing Thread 34/

Matt Gaetz & Greenberg attempted to buy a Presidential Pardon from Trump. The middle men were Roger Stone and Bone Saw Boy, Jared the Ken Doll. THIS is what freaks out Trump

Note, the feds HAVE THE DOCUMENTS on this

And Greenberg is singing

Trump Sentencing Thread 35/

Donald Trump no doubt sold pardons. If Roger Stone was involved, and Roger Stone is indicted on ANY crimes of serious prison time, Roger Stone will flip on Trump and confess, and rat all the pardon sellers out. And provide testimony Trump was paid

Trump Sentencing Thread 36/

Trump pardoned about 140 people. Let's assume that half of those pardons were fair & legit. And only half of them were purchased through bribes. As these were FINANCIAL CON ARTISTS and BANK FRAUDSTERS that Trump pardoned (half), probably paid $1M each

Trump Sentencing Thread 37/

Rob Blagojevich the crooked Governor of Illinois that Trump pardoned, was serving 14 year sentence for taking a bribe for selling a Senator seat. I think it gives us a fair benchmark. Trump probably gets 10 years per bribe he took for a pardon he gave

Trump Sentencing Thread 38/

EACH

10 years prison time for every pardon Trump sold. EACH. If we assume ONLY HALF of the pardons were crooked, that is 70 pardons...

70 pardons x 10 years = 700 years of more prison time for Trump.

Oopsie? You can see why Trump fears THIS aspect

Trump Sentencing Thread 39/

Next, lets go to Roger Stone path, as distinct from Matt Gaetz pardon bribes. I assigned Roger Stone as name to track for January 6th insurrection crimes.

A sitting US president launched a terrorist attack against his own government to be made King

Trump Sentencing Thread 40/

Trump's attempted coup of overturning the election result, and seizing power to rule as King of the USA, failed on January 6, but with deadly consequences. 5 killed including a police officer. 140 police officers injured. Now over 500 have been caught

Trump Sentencing Thread 41/

Like any Mafia trial, the boss is tried last. Before Trump is tried, the PLANNERS of Jan 6th Insurrection terrorism will be tried. Including

Roger Stone
Giuliani
Erik Prince
Gen Flynn
Bannon
Don Jr
My Pillow Guy

All will go to prison
Many will flip

Trump Sentencing Thread 42/

Note. Don Jr will flip on Daddy already at Weisselberg

Giuliani has to flip on his Ukraine shit

Roger Stone will flip on the Matt Gaetz aftermath even before this Jan 6 part

There is no way out for Trump. He is toast. But it takes time to get him

Trump Sentencing Thread 43/

I believe Trump will get a TON of years on Jan 6. I am looking at BARE MINIMUM now, for a base line:

Planning terrorist attack (25 years, was counted in above with Giuliani, not counting it again here)

Leading a terrorist attack against USA 25 years

Trump Sentencing Thread 44/

Attempted hanging of Vice President 10 years

Attempted torture of Speaker of House 10 years

Attempted gassing of Congress 10 years

Death of 5 (second degree) 20 years combined

TOTAL added 75 years
(with Giuliani part would be 100 years)

Trump Sentencing Thread 45/

THAT is my preliminary estimate of total prison time Trump is sentenced to:

Weisselberg related 152
Giuliani related 75
Pardon bribes 700
Jan 6 other than Giuliani related 75

Total Trump 1,002 years

Prison time served CONSECUTIVELY not CONCURRENTLY