Thread by @tomtom_m

New @MRCza and @UCT_news report on excess deaths released, covering week to 3Jul21. 182 300 excess natural deaths since 3May20, 99 500 since the start of the year. Report available here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…

Excess natural deaths in Gauteng, as well as its metros, continue to rise. Natural deaths in the week to 3Jul21 nearly 3x higher than expected. Weekly natural deaths in the province are at historic highs.

Nationally, natural deaths in the week to 3Jul21 were 57% higher than expected (last week 44%), and more than 50% higher than expected in NC and NW (with a weekly decline in the latter). WC natural deaths 25% higher (last week, 17%). A sharp increase in Limpopo (45% this week)

And, the comparison of excess natural deaths per week (by date of occurrence) with the reported Covid deaths per week (by date of reporting).

Unnatural deaths in the week to 3Jul21 fell below the lower prediction interval, but another week's data required to establish the trend.

On the testing side, while Gauteng appears to have peaked in the last few days, little else to celebrate, with marked increases in all provinces other than NC where only a small increase observed. GP proportion testing positive in week to 3Jul21: 37.6%; LM: 44.2%;WC 23.6%

This third wave is far from done. Deaths in Gauteng likely to rise for at least another week. Other provinces beginning to see effects of the wave. Interesting data on case metrics, and hospital admissions and deaths here: sacmcepidemicexplorer.co.za. Please stay - and be - safe.