Memphis/Shelby County
Covid Wk-In-Review
tl;dr: We're In Trouble
* Cases, +193% over 1wk, to 94/day (10/100k)
* Positivity, more than doubled, from 3.8% to 7.8%
* Infection rate, 1.22, highest since June 2020
* Hospitalizations are on the rise
* Vax, record-lows
1/
Look at this huge spike: avg daily cases are up 193% in just 1wk!
Meanwhile, tests are -26% and are under 1k/day for the first time since April 2020.
2/
Look at how daily cases have spiked to levels we've not seen since May.
There were 155 new cases reported today, after 142 yesterday. The last time we even hit 100 was May 20. The last time we topped 155 was 159 on May 14.
3/
Here are weekly cases. And you can see just how huge the spike is this week, not just compared to last week, but compared to anytime in over a month.
+193%, 1wk
+251%, 2wks
+142%, 4wks
+17%, 6wks
4/
And as you can see, our case rate is back up to the yellow, right at 10 avg daily cases per 100,000 people.
That in itself is bad enough, but look at how steep the increase is. That's exponential growth.
5/
Look at this graph of total cases since vaccines became available to the public.
First, you can see the curve start to bend down in Feb, hold steady in Mar/Apr, then bend down again in May/June. But look at how quickly the curve starts rising in July.
6/
Here's the log scale, if anyone's interested in that. Again, look at July, on the right side, and see how it starts to lift pretty sharply.
7/
And with the positivity rate rising rapidly, we are very likely missing cases.
For 5wks, positivity was low. But this week it spiked up to 7.8%, the highest since the wk of Jan31.
8/
By the way, this is esp dangerous to those who are still not vax'd. But if you are not vax'd & have not had covid, your risk level is just incredibly high.
The case rate for that group is an astounding 38.8 per 100k.
9/
But we set a new low in vaccinations this week, with just 3161 new people vaccinated, fewer than 500 per day.
This is a huge problem. And it would help if the FDA would give full authorization to the vaccines.
10/
Covid hospitalizations are up too.
As you can see, the number of covid patients is still low, under 100. But it's up nearly 70% in the past few weeks. And these are much younger patients than in the past.
11/
Deaths remain low, which is not surprising.
On the one hand, the risk of death is much higher for older ppl, but most older ppl have been vax'd. Those who have not, though, are in big danger.
But death is a lagging indicator. We won't see an increase for a few wks.
12/
With the delta variant, we'll likely need over 80% community immunity to stop the spread.
Currently, 42% of ppl have immunity from vax & roughly 32% have immunity from infection. But at least 5% have both.
So we're below 70%. And we need to get over 80%.
13/
What's really scary is that, over the past wk, we're seeing vaccinated ppl being admitted into the hospital with covid.
Dr. Threlkeld even said they've seen a few deaths from middle-aged & older adults who were vax'd.
But that's very rare.
wmcactionnews5.com/video/2021/07/…
14/
The viral load for delta is 1,000x higher than previous strains. This is why it is so infectious.
And this is why even those of us who are vax'd need to take precautions, especially in crowded indoor spaces.
15/
On the whole, though, vaccinations work. They remain highly effective, even against the delta strain.
In fact, the more ppl get vax'd, the more effective they are. So spread the gospel of covid vaccinations!
16/
Reason to exercise even more caution than the past couple months:
"The reproduction rate is at 1.22 which is the highest since June 2020."
wmcactionnews5.com/2021/07/08/she…
17/
Let our neighbors across the river in Arkansas serve as a warning for us...
18/
And our neighbors across the border in Mississippi too.
They are recommending that all ppl over 65 yrs old, even if vax'd, avoid large gatherings.
19/
This is the bottom-line:
The longer we let covid spread, not just in the US but around the world, the more dangerous it becomes for everyone.
Vax'd ppl are pretty safe right now. But if we don't get more ppl vax'd, we're in trouble.
20/20
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