Latest @MRCza and @UCT_news excess deaths report out, covering the week to 10Jul21. 193k excess natural deaths since 3May20. 7300 in the week 4-10Jul21, up from 6000 in the previous week.
Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
Deaths in Gauteng continue to rise, but appear to be nearing a peak in the province; still increasingly quite strongly in Johannesburg. Both substantially higher than in Waves 1 or 2. Natural deaths in Gauteng this week 3x higher than expected.
Western Cape also increasing.
p-scores (excess natural deaths as a % of expected) rising in almost every province. Nationally, natural deaths 80% higher than expected. Limpopo and Mpumalanga, 2x. Western Cape 50% higher than expected.
Still very congruence between reported Covid deaths and excess natural deaths, particularly in the Western Cape, but even in other provinces, reported deaths track Covid deaths, albeit at much lower levels
Unnatural deaths fell in the week to 10Jul21 (before the outbreak of violence), following the restrictions announced at end of June - although caution always required in not over-interpreting the most recent week's data.
On the testing side, 32.5% of tests in the week to 10Jul21 were positive (previous week 30.1%). Proportions testing positive increased in all provinces.
Please stay, and keep, safe - no matter where you are in the country
urgh. ..."very good congruence ..."
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