Nicholas Grossman Profile picture
International Relations prof at U. Illinois. Senior Editor @ArcDigi. Author “Drones and Terrorism.” Politics, national security, and occasional nerdery.

Jul 16, 2021, 8 tweets

No, I'm not going to calm down about dangers to US democracy. It matters to me and to millions of others, and the facts warrant concern.
Look at my record and you'll see prudent warnings that mostly panned out, not hysteria or conspiracy theories.
Thread:
arcdigital.media/p/wake-up-demo…

In November 2018, after Democrats broke Republican control by winning the House in the midterms, I explored various risky future scenarios, including the possibility Trump lost in 2020, rejected the results, and tried to rile up his supporters.
medium.com/arc-digital/th…

Feb 2020, after the Senate voted against removing Trump for trying to corrupt the election with his Ukraine scheme, and AG Bill Barr intervened to give special treatment to people whose shady activity helped Trump win in 2016, I warned that he'd try more.
medium.com/arc-digital/th…

In the end, Barr wouldn't go all the way with Trump's effort. But that's likely because Biden's victory was too big.
Barr did a lot to corrupt DOJ and undermine US democracy, such as pressuring Australia to validate conspiracy theories about 2016, and humoring lies about fraud.

In August 2020, I warned that the QAnon community would have trouble accepting reality if Trump lost the election, and that a subset might turn to violence, especially if Trump was doing things, deliberately or inadvertently, to activate them.
defenseone.com/ideas/2020/08/…

In July and August 2020, I explained, step-by-step, how Trump would try to steal the election if he did not win. I took some flack for this, including accusations that I was deranged.
As events proved, I wasn't.

When I've been wrong, it's usually because I was too optimistic, not too worried.
For example, on Jan. 8 this year, I saw fed up speeches from Lindsey Graham and Mitch McConnell, and various negative reactions to Jan. 6 on the right, and thought it'd last.
medium.com/arc-digital/5-…

I haven't always been right (no one is), but I've been right a lot. I almost never get out over my skis.
And I'm telling you, take the growing threat to US Constitutional democracy emanating from the Trumpist-dominated Republican Party seriously.
(END)
arcdigital.media/p/wake-up-demo…

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