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Nicholas Grossman Profile picture
@NGrossman81
Jul 16, 2021 • 8 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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No, I'm not going to calm down about dangers to US democracy. It matters to me and to millions of others, and the facts warrant concern.
Look at my record and you'll see prudent warnings that mostly panned out, not hysteria or conspiracy theories.
Thread:
arcdigital.media/p/wake-up-demo…
In November 2018, after Democrats broke Republican control by winning the House in the midterms, I explored various risky future scenarios, including the possibility Trump lost in 2020, rejected the results, and tried to rile up his supporters.
medium.com/arc-digital/th…
Feb 2020, after the Senate voted against removing Trump for trying to corrupt the election with his Ukraine scheme, and AG Bill Barr intervened to give special treatment to people whose shady activity helped Trump win in 2016, I warned that he'd try more.
medium.com/arc-digital/th…
In the end, Barr wouldn't go all the way with Trump's effort. But that's likely because Biden's victory was too big.
Barr did a lot to corrupt DOJ and undermine US democracy, such as pressuring Australia to validate conspiracy theories about 2016, and humoring lies about fraud.
In August 2020, I warned that the QAnon community would have trouble accepting reality if Trump lost the election, and that a subset might turn to violence, especially if Trump was doing things, deliberately or inadvertently, to activate them.
defenseone.com/ideas/2020/08/…
In July and August 2020, I explained, step-by-step, how Trump would try to steal the election if he did not win. I took some flack for this, including accusations that I was deranged.
As events proved, I wasn't.
When I've been wrong, it's usually because I was too optimistic, not too worried.
For example, on Jan. 8 this year, I saw fed up speeches from Lindsey Graham and Mitch McConnell, and various negative reactions to Jan. 6 on the right, and thought it'd last.
medium.com/arc-digital/5-…
I haven't always been right (no one is), but I've been right a lot. I almost never get out over my skis.
And I'm telling you, take the growing threat to US Constitutional democracy emanating from the Trumpist-dominated Republican Party seriously.
(END)
arcdigital.media/p/wake-up-demo…

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More from @NGrossman81

Nicholas Grossman Profile picture
Aug 13
Mighty Putin won't stop, Russia can do this forever, the West will fold, Russian mass casualties not worth mentioning, Kursk incursion only shows Western weakness not any Russian vulnerability, Ukraine'll eventually quit, NATO's done, blah, blah, blah.

There, saved you a click. Image
No one knows exactly what's going on in Putin's head, of cause, but one thing we can be confident of is he's very worried about the US election.

Chances looked good for a Putin sympathizer becoming US president, one who advocates pushing Ukraine to surrender. Now it doesn't. Image
To those noting that the article chastises the West for keeping restrictions on weapons delivery and use, thereby not giving Ukraine everything it needs to win, you're right that it says that, but does so entirely in service to the assertion that Putin's victory is inevitable.
Read 4 tweets
Nicholas Grossman Profile picture
Aug 11
Not Ukraine, not Sudan, not Myanmar, not Yemen, nor any other current or previous war with all the brutality and suffering they entail, just one, with graphic war images viewed every day, thinking that makes them superior.

That’s what explains this particular online behavior. Image
War is horrific, absolutely horrific. It’s hell on earth, and it’s happened—is happening—in multiple places at multiple times. If you don’t have training, experience, and a good reason to constantly view war imagery, you’re mostly traumatizing yourself without helping anyone.
Moat people outside conflict zones aren’t subjected to brutal war imagery on a regular basis, and that’s good. It doesn’t make them lesser or morally inferior. It makes them lucky and healthy.

Virtually no one who escapes armed conflict wishes others were more traumatized.
Read 6 tweets
Nicholas Grossman Profile picture
May 20
For Project 2025—for all Team Trump’s plans to backslide the US into authoritarianism—the only counter is beat them in the election so they don’t get the power to do it.
If they have the institutional power, there’s no brilliant idea, not glorious resistance, that can prevent it.
The strategy of democratic backsliding—get power legally, abuse it to break checks & balances, rule of law, and free elections—has worked in Turkey, Hungary, India, more.
It wouldn’t be Trump term 1, where they start not understanding the system. They’ve planned for years now.
Team Trump are not the most competent people, but they are relentless.
As Hannah Arendt argued, incompetence functions as an asset for would-be authoritarians in breaking institutions.
It’s Trump’s opponents—pro-democracy Americans—who want these core parts of govt to function.
Read 4 tweets
Nicholas Grossman Profile picture
Feb 12
"Ceasefire now," demand critics of Biden's Gaza policy. But what, exactly, does that mean? Brokered Israel-Hamas agreement? Unilateral Israeli cessation? Something else?
And what do the American people want? It depends.
I unpack the data in @thedailybeast
thedailybeast.com/do-americans-w…
Some prominent critics of Biden's Gaza policy, who want the US to push hard for a ceasefire—eg @RepRashida @mehdirhasan @Tyler_A_Harper @BenBurgis @QuincyInst @thrasherxy—claim a majority of Americans, esp Dems, agree with them.
Appears based on this one weighted poll question
2/ Image
@RepRashida @mehdirhasan @Tyler_A_Harper @BenBurgis @QuincyInst @thrasherxy But the arguments aren't symmetrical.
Red is realistic, saying that no permanent ceasefire means Hamas remains in power and Israel will kill more civilians in Gaza.
Blue is a hopeful hypothetical: a permanent mutual agreement with no more fighting and all hostages released.
3/ Image
Read 6 tweets
Nicholas Grossman Profile picture
Jan 28
Iran wouldn't mess with tough Trump, says MAGA? Opposite of reality.
First, Iran and militias it backs got more aggressive after Trump broke JCPOA. Attacked tankers, Saudi oil fields, US bases.
Then US killing Iranian Gen. Soleimani ended it, right?
No. Wrong again.
@mehdirhasan Image
Does this mean Iran was cowed into complacency by the toughness of Bush, Obama, or Biden?
No, of course not. That's not how the world works.
But there were fewer Iran-backed attacks on US and allied forces when diplomacy was alive than with Trump's shallow display of "toughness."
In multiple ways, Trump's Middle East policy led to the current regional turmoil. He let Iran out of nuclear restrictions in exchange for nothing, and sowed chaos. By the end of his term, Iran was stronger in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Qatar, Lebanon, and Gaza.
thedailybeast.com/trumps-overrat…
Read 4 tweets
Nicholas Grossman Profile picture
Sep 16, 2023
Rep. Ken Buck tells the truth about Biden-Ukraine (screenshots 1 & 2) only to blatantly lie about Trump-Ukraine (3).
Trump-Zelensky transcript (4) show Trump blocked military aid to push the very lie about corruption in Ukraine Buck calls out as false. What a weird time we're in.


Image
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Trump's infamous call came after Giuliani spent months trying to drum up dirt on the Bidens in Ukraine, and after Trump removed the corruption-fighting US Ambassador to Ukraine.
And still the transcript shows Trump concerned about Mueller, not about actual corruption in Ukraine. Image
It's so obvious I shouldn't have to say it (but these are the times we live in):
An open, bipartisan US effort in partner with the EU and IMF to fight corruption is not at all like a hidden effort by the president and his fixer/lawyer to make more corruption. Those are opposites.
Read 4 tweets

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