Nicholas Grossman Profile picture
Jul 16, 2021 8 tweets 4 min read Read on X
No, I'm not going to calm down about dangers to US democracy. It matters to me and to millions of others, and the facts warrant concern.
Look at my record and you'll see prudent warnings that mostly panned out, not hysteria or conspiracy theories.
Thread:
arcdigital.media/p/wake-up-demo…
In November 2018, after Democrats broke Republican control by winning the House in the midterms, I explored various risky future scenarios, including the possibility Trump lost in 2020, rejected the results, and tried to rile up his supporters.
medium.com/arc-digital/th…
Feb 2020, after the Senate voted against removing Trump for trying to corrupt the election with his Ukraine scheme, and AG Bill Barr intervened to give special treatment to people whose shady activity helped Trump win in 2016, I warned that he'd try more.
medium.com/arc-digital/th…
In the end, Barr wouldn't go all the way with Trump's effort. But that's likely because Biden's victory was too big.
Barr did a lot to corrupt DOJ and undermine US democracy, such as pressuring Australia to validate conspiracy theories about 2016, and humoring lies about fraud.
In August 2020, I warned that the QAnon community would have trouble accepting reality if Trump lost the election, and that a subset might turn to violence, especially if Trump was doing things, deliberately or inadvertently, to activate them.
defenseone.com/ideas/2020/08/…
In July and August 2020, I explained, step-by-step, how Trump would try to steal the election if he did not win. I took some flack for this, including accusations that I was deranged.
As events proved, I wasn't.
When I've been wrong, it's usually because I was too optimistic, not too worried.
For example, on Jan. 8 this year, I saw fed up speeches from Lindsey Graham and Mitch McConnell, and various negative reactions to Jan. 6 on the right, and thought it'd last.
medium.com/arc-digital/5-…
I haven't always been right (no one is), but I've been right a lot. I almost never get out over my skis.
And I'm telling you, take the growing threat to US Constitutional democracy emanating from the Trumpist-dominated Republican Party seriously.
(END)
arcdigital.media/p/wake-up-demo…

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More from @NGrossman81

May 20
For Project 2025—for all Team Trump’s plans to backslide the US into authoritarianism—the only counter is beat them in the election so they don’t get the power to do it.
If they have the institutional power, there’s no brilliant idea, not glorious resistance, that can prevent it.
The strategy of democratic backsliding—get power legally, abuse it to break checks & balances, rule of law, and free elections—has worked in Turkey, Hungary, India, more.
It wouldn’t be Trump term 1, where they start not understanding the system. They’ve planned for years now.
Team Trump are not the most competent people, but they are relentless.
As Hannah Arendt argued, incompetence functions as an asset for would-be authoritarians in breaking institutions.
It’s Trump’s opponents—pro-democracy Americans—who want these core parts of govt to function.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 12
"Ceasefire now," demand critics of Biden's Gaza policy. But what, exactly, does that mean? Brokered Israel-Hamas agreement? Unilateral Israeli cessation? Something else?
And what do the American people want? It depends.
I unpack the data in @thedailybeast
thedailybeast.com/do-americans-w…
Some prominent critics of Biden's Gaza policy, who want the US to push hard for a ceasefire—eg @RepRashida @mehdirhasan @Tyler_A_Harper @BenBurgis @QuincyInst @thrasherxy—claim a majority of Americans, esp Dems, agree with them.
Appears based on this one weighted poll question
2/ Image
@RepRashida @mehdirhasan @Tyler_A_Harper @BenBurgis @QuincyInst @thrasherxy But the arguments aren't symmetrical.
Red is realistic, saying that no permanent ceasefire means Hamas remains in power and Israel will kill more civilians in Gaza.
Blue is a hopeful hypothetical: a permanent mutual agreement with no more fighting and all hostages released.
3/ Image
Read 6 tweets
Jan 28
Iran wouldn't mess with tough Trump, says MAGA? Opposite of reality.
First, Iran and militias it backs got more aggressive after Trump broke JCPOA. Attacked tankers, Saudi oil fields, US bases.
Then US killing Iranian Gen. Soleimani ended it, right?
No. Wrong again.
@mehdirhasan Image
Does this mean Iran was cowed into complacency by the toughness of Bush, Obama, or Biden?
No, of course not. That's not how the world works.
But there were fewer Iran-backed attacks on US and allied forces when diplomacy was alive than with Trump's shallow display of "toughness."
In multiple ways, Trump's Middle East policy led to the current regional turmoil. He let Iran out of nuclear restrictions in exchange for nothing, and sowed chaos. By the end of his term, Iran was stronger in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Qatar, Lebanon, and Gaza.
thedailybeast.com/trumps-overrat…
Read 4 tweets
Sep 16, 2023
Rep. Ken Buck tells the truth about Biden-Ukraine (screenshots 1 & 2) only to blatantly lie about Trump-Ukraine (3).
Trump-Zelensky transcript (4) show Trump blocked military aid to push the very lie about corruption in Ukraine Buck calls out as false. What a weird time we're in.


Image
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Trump's infamous call came after Giuliani spent months trying to drum up dirt on the Bidens in Ukraine, and after Trump removed the corruption-fighting US Ambassador to Ukraine.
And still the transcript shows Trump concerned about Mueller, not about actual corruption in Ukraine. Image
It's so obvious I shouldn't have to say it (but these are the times we live in):
An open, bipartisan US effort in partner with the EU and IMF to fight corruption is not at all like a hidden effort by the president and his fixer/lawyer to make more corruption. Those are opposites.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 10, 2023
On Elon Musk stopping Ukraine attack on Russian ships:
1st reported by Oliver Carroll, 2nd mention in Ronan Farrow's investigation and 3rd in Walter Isaacson's biography say Musk intervened. Only Isaacson's "clarification" says it already wasn't on and he merely didn't turn it on
Most focus is on Musk thwarting Ukraine's attack on Crimea because he (wrongly) thought it'd cause WWIII.
But Isaacson also printed an exchange with Ukraine Deputy PM Fedorov showing Musk denying access in Russian-occupied south and east Ukraine, thus validating Russia's conquest Image
So even if we dismiss the Economist's Carroll, the New Yorker's Farrow, and Isaacson's book, and go with Musk/Isaacson's revision re: Crimea, he still took action to protect Russian forces on occupied Ukrainian territory.
At best, badly ignorant.
At best.
thedailybeast.com/us-government-…
Read 5 tweets
Jul 6, 2023
In every democracy, people say the economy is doing better when their party is in power, regardless of actual economic numbers.
But that doesn't mean everyone in each country does so to the same degree.
In the US, rejection of politically inconvenient data isn't symmetrical.
You can see it clearly here.
The US economy in 2017-19 was basically on trend from 2014-16. The biggest thing that changed is Republican leaders and conservative media went from saying the economy was worse than it was to saying it was better than it was.
Here is US GDP and unemployment from Jan. 2012 to Jan. 2020.
See the big change that happened from 2016 to 2017? No?
That's because there isn't any. All that happened was an election.
Dems thought the economy was decent/mediocre and still was. GOP said it was awful then amazing.

Read 4 tweets

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