Thread by @firstresponses

Memphis/Shelby County
Covid Wk-In-Review

tl;dr: Yikes!
* Cases, +51% over 1wk, +342% over 2wks, from 32 to 94 to 141/day
* Positivity, from 3.8% to 7.8% to 10.1%
* Infection rate, 1.46, highest since March 2020
* Hospitalizations, rising quickly
* Deaths, starting to rise

1/

Look at how sharply daily cases have spiked over the past two weeks, up to levels not seen since the first week of May.

We've now had 9 straight days with over 100 cases, well over 100 in fact.

2/

Here are daily cases just for July 2021...

3/

Here are weekly cases. Just look at how quickly the downward trend reversed. Look at how steep that trend line is rising.

4/

We're up to 15.0 cases per 100,00 people.

The only time we've been higher than that since the vaccines became widely available was right after Easter.

But there are no signs that our current spike will end anytime soon, and we're on pace to pass that peak in the next week.

5/

If you've never had covid, and aren't vax'd, it's extremely dangerous for you right now.

For those people, the case rate is 59.7 per 100k. (For context, that's equal to the overall case rate in mid-December - and higher than at any point last summer.)

6/

Here you can see how we flattened the curve in late-May through most of June...and how we've bent it back up again in July.

7/

And the thing is, we are most certainly missing cases. In fact, with the positivity rate up to 9.9%, we're likely missing a significant number of cases.

8/

Only three times has the positivity rate has been higher...

* 3wks, when there was no testing in Spring 2020.
* 6wks, during the Summer 2020 peak.
* 11wks, during the Winter 2020-21 peak.

9/

Even though patient numbers are still relatively low, covid hospitalization is rising quickly and is on pace to double in the next two weeks.

And these patients are much younger than in previous waves.

10/

And while deaths also remain low, we are seeing an increase here.

After 6wks straight below 5 deaths, there were 7 reported this week.

11/

This is what's really scary...

Our infection rate is up to 1.46, dangerously high.

The only time it was higher was March 2020. Last summer and winter, 1.20 and 1.16 were the highest points it reached.

Remember, this needs to be below 1 to effectively fight the virus.

12/

Some good news, if only relatively so and relatively small, is that new people vaccinated actually increased this week.

Just over 5,000 new people were vax'd this week. And hopefully we'll see this number continue to climb in the coming weeks bc it's still low.

13/

We've now vax'd 42.5% of the local pop. That said, we know that you need both shots to fight delta. And only 35.1% of ppl are fully vax'd.

About 32% of people have been infected.

Subtract the 5% or so who've been infected + vax'd, and we're at 62% community immunity.

14/

That's nowhere near enough. Malta leads the world with 90% of adults vax'd...but even they are seeing a huge spike in cases.



15/

It's starting to look like we won't be able to vax our way out of this pandemic, even if we could get more ppl vax'd.

That said, we also know that vax'd ppl are at exponentially less risk.

And we owe it to our kids to keep fighting at least until vax is available to them.

16/

I'm very concerned about our kids, by the way. We're looking at a storm coming...straight for the start of school.

There are no good answers, though, so I don't want to advocate for any particular position on this other than keeping kids and their safety front and center.

17/17