Thread by @COVID19actuary

Update on COVID hospital admissions in England.

622 admissions reported today. The 7-day average is up by 37% in the last week. Implied doubling time is 16 days.

There’s been a slight fall in the rate of increase but this is still rapid growth in admissions. 1/6

To see the slight fall in the rate of increase more clearly, here is an “R-like” estimate based on hospital admissions. With a reducing proportion of infections turning into admissions, it probably understates R slightly.

Our “admissions-R” has fallen from over 1.4 to 1.3. 2/6

All English regions except the North West are showing strong increases in hospital admissions over the past week. Growth is fastest in the South West, where admissions doubled in a week. Admissions have been flat in the North West. Other regions are up by 40-50%. 3/6

Hospital bed occupancy for COVID-19 has risen significantly in the last week. Mechanical ventilation beds occupancy is up by 25% and other bed occupancy is up by 38%. 4/6

We’re often asked what proportion of people admitted with COVID-19 are fully vaccinated. New analysis from @AdeleGroyer builds on data from @PHE_uk to examine vaccine status of cases and hospital admissions for over 50s and under 50s separately. 5/6

covid-arg.com/post/how-many-…

Age 50 plus: unvaccinated 5% make up 34% of hospital admissions. 79% of people fully vaccinated but make up just 43% of admissions.

Below age 50: 46% unvaccinated but they make up 87% of admissions. 21% of people fully vaccinated but make up just 4% of admissions. 6/6