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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group
@COVID19actuary
Continuing to share regular data and analysis on excess mortality and hospital admissions with Covid-19. Run by volunteers.
4 subscribers
Aug 22, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The Continuous Mortality investigation (CMI) has published its weekly Mortality Monitor covering deaths to 11 August.

Death rates this week were 5% higher than the equivalent week in 2019. This implies 487 excess deaths in England and Wales. 1/4 Image CMI calculates 202,300 excess deaths in the UK since the start of the pandemic. That total has increased by 30,800 in 2023.

Cumulative mortality rates YTD are 5.0% of a full year’s mortality worse than 2019. That is similar to this point in 2021. 2/4 Image
Apr 13, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The Continuous Mortality investigation (CMI) has published its weekly Mortality Monitor covering deaths to 31 March.

Death rates this week were significantly higher than the equivalent week in 2019. There were 1,210 more deaths, which is 12% more. 1/4 Image CMI calculates 171,600 excess deaths in the UK since the start of the pandemic. That total has increased by 20,200 in the first quarter of 2023. That’s the worst quarterly excess since the peak of the second wave. 2/4 Image
Jan 12, 2023 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
Are A&E pressures really leading to hundreds of additional deaths each week? @ActuaryByDay and colleagues @LCP_Actuaries crunch the numbers and conclude that a significant number of patients could be dying because of long delays accessing emergency care.
covidactuaries.org/2023/01/11/are… Looking only at the waiting time from the decision to admit the patient until the point of admission (the so called “trolley wait”) an additional 5,400 deaths within 30-days are estimated between Sep and Nov 2022. That’s 415 per week.
Oct 29, 2022 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Our latest #FridayReport COVID update is now available featuring:
- Autumns boosters: over 10m now boosted
- protection against Omicron from boosters and prior infection
- AZ nasal vaccine disappoints
- Pfizer bivalent vaccine approved in USA for age 5-11
covidactuaries.org/2022/10/28/fri… Also featured:
- Moderna bivalent booster outperforms original
- pre-Omicron infections don’t compromise immunity against Omicron
- Over 300 Omicron sublineages globally. BA.5 dominant but BQ.1 displacing it
- Evusheld available privately - at a price
covidactuaries.org/2022/10/28/fri…
Oct 27, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Hospital admissions with COVID have fallen significantly over the last week. The 7-day average for England is down 16%.

Our R estimate is around 0.9.

All regions have seen falls. SW is down by 27%; NW is down by 9%. Others are in between.

Bed occupancy also fell, down 12%. ImageImageImageImage Admissions from hospital acquired infections appear to be falling more rapidly than admissions from the community. This perhaps indicates a restoration of more control measures within hospitals.

Oct 21, 2022 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
In the first six months of 2022, deaths in Australia were 13% higher than predicted. There were 11,200 excess deaths.

There were 5,600 COVID deaths, representing just over half the excess.

covidactuaries.org/2022/10/21/exc… The significant excess deaths in Australia in 2022 are in contrast to earlier stages of the pandemic.

Deaths in 2020 were 3% lower than expected, due to restrictions put in place to limit the spread of COVID-19.

Deaths in 2021 were 2% higher than expected. Image
Oct 20, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Hospital admissions with COVID have fallen slightly over the last week. The 7-day average for England is down 5%.

Our R estimate is around 1.0.

Most regions are also fairly flat. The East is down 12%; SW is up by 8%. Others are in between.

Bed occupancy also flat, down 2%. Admissions from hospital acquired infections appear to be falling more rapidly than admissions from the community. This perhaps indicates a restoration of more control measures within hospitals.
Sep 29, 2022 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Hospital admissions with COVID have risen sharply!

7-day average for England up 48%.

Implied R estimate above 1.2. The highest we’ve seen in 2022.

Regionally, the biggest increases are in SE (up 64%) and Mids (up 58%) but big increases everywhere.

Bed occupancy is up by 37%. Much of the increase seems to be people acquiring COVID while in hospital. Likely hospital acquired cases have doubled in a week.

This may be a consequence of routine testing on admission being reduced as this allows COVID to spread more freely in hospitals.
Sep 22, 2022 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
A significant increase in hospital admissions with COVID! 7-day average for England is up 17% with a big jump on Monday. Implied R estimate clearly above 1.0.

Regionally, the biggest increases are in SW (up 39%), East (up 33%) and NE&Yorks (up 30%).

Bed occupancy is up by 14%. ImageImageImageImage It’s a similar story when we look only at patients where COVID is the primary diagnosis (PD). Across England the increase in PD beds is 9%. The proportion where COVID is the PD has increased slightly to 36%. ImageImage
Sep 21, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) has published its weekly Mortality Monitor covering deaths to 9 September.

There were 7% more deaths this week than if death rates were the same as 2019, CMI's comparator.
1/3 Image CMI calculates 137,000 excess deaths in the UK since the start of the pandemic. The total has increased by 16.600 in 2022.

Cumulative mortality rates YTD are 2.5% of a full year’s mortality worse than 2019. 2/3 Image
Jul 26, 2022 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Around 1-in-10 UK workers has access to disability insurance, or “Income Protection” (IP). This pays an income if unable to work due to illness or injury.

In our latest blog @AdeleGroyer discusses the impact of the pandemic on IP claims and premiums.

covidactuaries.org/2022/07/26/has… Group IP saw a 12% increase in total claim payments between 2019 and 2020. This includes claims that began in previous years.

In contrast, @BritishInsurers reported a decrease in the number of individual IP claims, perhaps due to furlough, specialist support schemes and/or WFH.
May 9, 2022 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
The @WHO recently reported 14.9 million excess deaths from the pandemic in 2020 and 2021. We have reviewed the calculations and while the global total is broadly consistent with other estimates, we have concerns over the figures for some countries.

covidactuaries.org/2022/05/09/who… Excess deaths compare actual and expected deaths. Actual deaths are objective and typically fairly accurate. However, expected deaths estimates are subjective and different groups take different approaches. The CMI’s measure is based on age-standardised mortality rates in 2019.
May 7, 2022 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Our 66th Friday Report is now available covering recent developments with vaccines, treatments and data.

In this edition (thread):
•Progress update on Spring boosters and age 5-11 rollout
•Prevalence of new variants BA.4, BA.5 and BA.2.12.1

covidactuaries.org/2022/05/06/the… Also featured:
•Growth advantage of BA.4 and BA.5
•Immune escape of Omicron subtypes
•Effectiveness of treatments against new variants
•Limited benefit of remdesivir for hospitalised patients
•Vaccine take-up associated with lower COVID-19 mortality
covidactuaries.org/2022/05/06/the…
Apr 9, 2022 • 10 tweets • 6 min read
No #FridayReport this week but for weekend reading the latest edition of @TheActuaryMag is a “two years on” pandemic special.

This thread highlights some articles that might be of interest.

theactuary.com/issues/2022/04… 1. Our co-chairs Matthew Edwards and @ActuaryByDay are interviewed by editor Ruolin Wang. The wide-ranging discussion includes the work of @COVID19actuary and the CMI, the media, the future, juggling, and Batman villains.

theactuary.com/2022/04/04/imp…
Apr 6, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Hospital admissions with COVID in England appear to have peaked, with the 7-day average flat in recent days (up 2% week-on-week).

See below for a breakdown by region as well bed occupancy and hospital deaths, which have risen significantly. 1/5 Image If the peak isn’t clear from the admissions chart above, here is the implied R estimate. It’s clear that this has been falling for a while and is now around 1, so admissions can be expected to start falling next. 2/5 Image
Mar 19, 2022 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Our 63rd Friday Report is now available covering recent developments with vaccines, treatments and data.

In this edition (thread):
•Vaccine safety results
•Duration of mRNA vaccine protection against Omicron

covidactuaries.org/2022/03/18/the… Also included:
•Road ahead for COVID vaccination
•BA.2 dominant in England
•Risk of severe outcomes – Omicron v Delta
•Evusheld as vaccine alternative
•More evidence Ivermectin doesn’t improve outcomes
•COVID-19 impact on brain function

covidactuaries.org/2022/03/18/the…
Mar 16, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Hospital admissions with COVID continue to increase rapidly across England. Up by 27% in the last week.

See below for a breakdown by region, age and primary diagnosis. Also bed occupancy and hospital deaths. 1/5 Admissions are up sharply in all English regions. The most rapid increase is NE and Yorks, up 52% week-on-week! Other regions are up by 21-26%. 2/5
Jan 22, 2022 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
New Friday Report is now available, covering recent developments with Omicron (including the BA.2 variant), vaccines, treatments, modelling and data.

In this edition (thread):
- US cases and hospitalisations by vaccine status and previous diagnosis 🇺🇸

covidactuaries.org/2022/01/22/the… Also included:
- Booster progress, socio-economic variation and reasons for hesitancy 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿
- Omicron outcomes in SA 🇿🇦
- Some rapid tests less effective at detecting Omicron
- Vaccination, infection and fertility
- Vaccinated less likely to get Long COVID
covidactuaries.org/2022/01/22/the…
Jan 21, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Update on COVID-19 admissions, occupancy and deaths in English hospitals.

Nationally, admissions with COVID have fallen by 11% week-on-week, with significant falls in every region. Fastest fall in the North West (down 20%) and slowest in the South West (down 6%). 1/4 This chart compares actual hospital admissions with modelled scenarios produced by SPI-M-O teams, including an update from @cmmid_lshtm to incorporate Omicron. Assuming no further uptick in admissions the peak will be significantly lower than the central modelled scenarios. 2/4
Jan 18, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) has published its first Mortality Monitor of 2022. It covers to 7 January (week 1).

There were 7% more deaths this week than if death rates were the same as week 1 of 2019. That is 784 excess deaths in England and Wales this week. CMI calculates 121,300 excess deaths in the UK since the start of the pandemic, of which 900 occurred in 2022.

Cumulative mortality YTD is 0.4% of a full year's mortality below 2019. The cumulative measure compares the first 7 days of each year rather than ISO weeks used above.
Jan 17, 2022 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Tomorrow will see the publication of the first weekly death registrations update of 2022.

There is much interest in the extent to which Omicron is leading to excess deaths when compared to past winters. But how should the excess be calculated?

covidactuaries.org/2022/01/16/ass… In a new blog @john_actuary looks at statements from @ONS and the CMI (part of @actuarynews) about the benchmark against which 2022 excess deaths will be calculated.

What sounds like a technical issue is highly significant. The ONS change will mean 11,000 fewer excess deaths.