Thread by @AJentleson

The question people ask on this and similar polls is: what is Sinema doing? Is this a politically necessary or super=savvy ploy to hold her seat, one that justifies the big sacrifices to Biden's agenda on voting rights and much else? Let's take a look. 1/

If the goal of Sinema's rightward gambit is to be popular in AZ, the results are meh. She comes in at 44% and net +2 approval among Arizonans - an OK number since it's narrowly positive, but lower than Biden (50%, +2) and especially Kelly's net +11.

One clear effect of her rightward lurch is to severely harm her support among Dems. Being barely above 50% with your own party is not a great place to be, especially in our polarized era. Compare her approval among Dems (54%, +13) to Kelly's (85%, +76) and Biden's (94%, +89).

If Sinema has sacrificed support among Dems, she must be making up for it with independents, right? Wrong. Here, again, she trails Kelly. This gets to the cost/benefit question: Sinema is blocking Biden's agenda, but still has a lower approval among indies than Kelly, who is not.

The place where Sinema outperforms is with Republicans. But what is that worth? In a head to head, Republicans will vote for the Republican. Even if a candidate only has to win ~10%, Kelly has 21% with Rs while also enjoying much stronger numbers with Dems & indies. Seems better.

Sinema's decision to obstruct Biden's agenda has left her open to a primary challenge. But what's truly remarkable is that she has not just left herself vulnerable to the far left. She has left herself vulnerable to anyone who runs as a Democrat supporting the Democratic agenda.

Let's get to the question: what is Sinema doing? Do those relatively high approval numbers with GOPers mean she's going to switch parties? Probably not. While her numbers among Rs are reasonably high for a Dem, they are too low to win a GOP primary. Compare to Ducey, for example.

What about running as an indie? Maybe. But that's hard to do when your overall favorability rating is underwater (-4), and when you fail to achieve majority favs with any faction. Also, as stated above, her performance among indies is underwhelming, and lags far behind Kelly.

Another explanation, suggested by her “fuck off” photo, is that Sinema doesn’t care. Fair enough. But it’d also be fair for donors, grassroots leaders, and other supporters to ask why she is sacrificing Biden’s agenda and making it harder for Dems to hold the majority in 2022.

Clearly, Sinema’s gambit is not necessary for her politics. Kelly is in stronger standing, which he has achieved without blocking Biden’s agenda. It’d be entirely reasonable for supporters & donors to ask why she’s sacrificing priorities like voting rights for no good reason.

Sinema’s gambit is also hurting Dem efforts to hold the majority. Blocking S1/HR4 keeps the playing field tilted towards Rs. Without filibuster reform, other key priories won’t pass either. And Rs are using Sinema’s rightward shift to attack Kelly as a radical. Bad! And for what?