Thread by @miamalan

[Thread] 1. How far are we behind with our original #VaccineRolloutSA targets? Dr Jabu Mtsweni from @CSIR has analysed this.

What is our target? To vaccinate 40 million adults in SA by March 2022.

2. How do we measure if we're reaching targets?
1. We can look at the nr of doses we administer in either a 5 (without weekends) or 7 day week
2. We can count how many people are fully vaccinated, but the nr of doses we count are different for JnJ (1 dose) and Pfizer (2 doses)

3. So how is SA doing?
1. Average nr of doses/day = 173 258
2. 80% of the doses = Pfizer (2 doses) and 20% = JnJ (Pfizer was up until recently, the only jab available to SA to roll out at sites)
3. Using more 2 dose jabs makes us move slower on targets for full vaccinations

4. Weekends show huge dips in vaccination numbers
* On weekends we've done an average of 26 000 jabs/day (compared to 173 258 on weekdays)
* Gauteng leads in terms of weekday numbers (66 000 per day)
* NC has done the fewest vaccinations (3 776 per day)

5. How many jabs do we need to do/day to reach targets (64.6 mil more jabs by March)?
1. To reach 40 mil people by 31 March (if we do vaccinations 7 days per week): 264 000 jabs/day
2. To reach 40 mil people by 31 March (if we do vaccinations 5 days per week): 369 000 jabs/day

6. If we assume that 15% of the 40 mil adults we'd like to vaccinate, will choose to not be vaccinated, then we'd have to administer another 54.9 mil doses by 31 March, so our targets would be lower:

1. 223k jabs per day (for a 7 day wk)
2. 313 k per day (for a 5 day wk)

7. So is 250 000+ jabs per day a realistic target? Yes, based on what countries with similar populations to SA (SA pop = 60 mil) do:
1. France does 500 000 jabs per day
2. South Korea does 200 000+ jabs per day (pop = 65 mil)

8. Are we behind with original targets? Yes.
1. How many doses has SA done? 7.3 mil
2. How many doses should we have done to be on target? 16.5 mil (7 days wk)
3. How far behind are we? 9.2 mil doses
4. How many doses are left to do (for a largely #Pfizer strategy)? 64.6 mil

9. This slide shows the original vaccination targets for each province + how far behind we are:

E.g., Gauteng
1. Original target = 4.2 mil doses
2. We've done: 1.7 mil doses
3. Shortfall = 2.5 mil doses

Main reason for delay: LACK of doses supplied to SA by drug companies

10. How many doses will we have administered by March if we keep going at our current pace?
- 40 mill (we need to do 54.9 mil if we work with a 15% vaccine hesitancy and a largely Pfizer campaign)

11. How is SA performing with #VaccineRollOutSA compared to other African countries?
We've done more vaccinations than most other African countries (only Morocco has done more than us, acc to @mediahackza's dashboard: bit.ly/3xcM5KK)

12. Weekends, public holidays and national events (e.g elections) may affect when SA reaches its #VaccineRollOutSA targets. We need to perform consistently for the entire vaccination period to reach our targets.