7/30 Texas C19 Case, Hospitalization & Fatality Update
THREAD:
This is quickly becoming a Delta Casemedic. Huge Case dumps from Harris & Bexar (again) put case count to 13,000+ today. Now tracking ahead of 2020.
Meanwhile Hosps & Fatalities are tracking behind 2020.
1/n
We will start with Leading Indicator of Positivity rate.
* Antigen Positivity has peaked and is declining.
* PCR Positivity is still climbing.
* Based on history, PCR follows closely behind Antigen, within days, so a peak should be imminent.
Next, cases.
2/n
.
As mentioned in 1/n, huge case dumps in Bexar & Harris, over 6K of the 13K really skewing things. Bexar does just once a week, but did a second one of 2K today.
2021 Summer Cases are running hotter than 2020 now. No way there's not a crap-ton of breakthrough cases.
3/n
Hospitalizations:
Both General Beds and ICU are climbing at a lower rate and are now running slightly behind the 2020 Summer wave. Still only 8%+ of the beds in use in the state are tagged as C19 patients, and less than 20% of the ICU beds.
Fatalities next.
4/n
.
Fatalities Part 1
* I will post this morning's primer on modeling date of death reporting
* 1st 2 charts show fatalities running behind the 2020 summer wave, both cumulative & 7DMA
* 3rd chart is the full Fatalities over Hospitalizations
* Read the primer
5/n
.
Fatalities Part 2
57 Fatalities reported today. After reading primer in 7/n, you will better understand the significance of this table.
* Fatalities are coming in quicker and in lower quantities than my model projects.
* Only 10 that were 2 weeks and older
6/n
.
Primer on Fatality reporting, modeling arrivals, and why I am asserting that so far, this Delta wave is not as lethal as the Summer 2020 wave.
7/n
.
In conclusion, here is the summary:
* Antigen pos% has peaked, PCR should in next few days
vs. the 2020 Summer Wave, 2021 Delta wave:
* Cases are higher
* Hospitalizations slightly lower
* Fatalities significantly lower
Hang on a couple of more weeks till case peak!
8/end
Correction, Casedemic. Not Casemedic. LOL
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