Thread by @therealarod1984

7/31 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality update:

THREAD:

Casedemic is here. Cases are way ahead of the 2020 Summer Wave pace, while general hospitalizations, ICU, and fatalities are running increasingly behind 2020.

1/n
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Positivity Rate

Antigen Positivity Rate had a bunch of revisions, but still is trying to crest. PCR Positivity doesn't look to be far behind. Is 20% the magic number, as it has been in 2020 Summer and Winter waves, or will it crest below that?

2/n
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Cases -

Running way ahead of 2020 pace now. Remember these 2 waves are 13 months apart to the day.

Second day in a row and 3rd out of 4 above 10,000 cases.

#Casedemic and here's why...

3/n
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Hospitalizations in the 2021 Summer wave are not keeping pace with 2020. Neither general beds or especially ICU.

I'll do fatalities later or in the morning. 44 reported today, which if you read yesterday's update, the fatalities are substantially behind 2020 pace.

4/n

Fatalities Part 1

* Primer for background will be in 7/n
* Fatalities through same point in both waves - 2021 is significantly behind 2020 in both cumulative & 7DMA
* My updated projections on fatalities come out on Wednesday. Already appears I'll revise downward again

5/n
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Fatalities Part 2

44 Fatalities reported. Per pattern so far, fatalities are coming in sooner & in lower qtys than expected by the modeling, again only 10 2 weeks & older.

1st half of July is not filling in the divergence below the hospitalization line as much as expected

6/n

Primer to understand the rather complicated topic of Date of Death reporting, and building a model to project how many fatalities are in for a date in the past, and then comparing that vs 2020 wave.

7/n

To conclue: here is the 7/31 summary:

* Antigen pos% is peaking, watching PCR for a similar peak

vs. the 2020 Summer Wave, 2021 Delta wave:
* Cases are higher
* Hospitalizations slightly lower and curves are flatter
* Fatalities significantly lower

Hang in there

8/end