Thread by @EduEngineer

I'm performing an analysis on what happens to CFR in nations after starting mass vaccination.

If somebody has time to work with me on this project who has excellent data handling skills, and can spare a couple of days, contact me.

In the meantime, I'm going to drop results...

India began mass vaccination Jan 16. CFR has gone up a bit. These are not mRNA vaccines. The rise in CFR may be that efficacy favors reducing milder cases more than the deadlier ones.

The U.S. (primarily mRNA) began mass vaccination Dec 21, 2020. CFR has been on the decline, but went up, and too quickly for the 12 day AB lag to build up in any significant part of the population.

Indonesia has not undertaken mass vaccination. With a small case rate, perhaps they chose "ring vaccination". But they have seen a dip-then-rise in CFR since beginning the program.

Brazil is one of the more heavily vaccinated nations, using AZ and SinoVac. After a long period of CFR stability, Brazil's shot up along with the administration of vaccines.

Russia began vaccination on Dec 15, 2020 and saw its CFR grow through early 2021.

This is the tweet that got me started on this project. The UK immediately saw a boost in fatalities counted into COVID cases upon beginning mass vaccination on Dec 8.

Yes, at the end of this I plan a national aggregation, cut several ways.

What happened in Germany?!

On Dec 27, 2020 when Mexico begin its mass vaccination program, the CDR (7-day deaths)/(7-day cases 18 days earlier) was 5.9%.

27 days later it was 13.61%.

Bangladesh is neither the most highly vaccinated or high in cases. However, from Jan 26 to March 20, CFR went up 140% (2.4x).

It took 18 days of mRNA vaccination for Japan's stable CFR to double. Then grew further.

Ethopia has vaccinated less than 2% of its population (starting March 13, 2021). The CFR there has been relatively stable.

Despite vaccinating over 10M people since Marc 1, the Philippines hasn't seen unusually high variance in its CFR...but cases shot through the roof.

Egypt is another nation that has barely vaccinated its population (5.2 doses per 100). Overall, their CFR seems to be dropping over the past several months.

The United Arab Emirates is one of the most heavily vaccinated nations in the world despite having one of the lowest CFRs during the pandemic, oddly. However, that CFR more than doubled in the early weeks of the mass vaccination program.

Uruguay is one of the most heavily vaccinated nations in the world. Their CFR tripled in five weeks starting February 27 with the outset of their vaccination program. Their case rate also exploded, meaning 16x as many Uruguayans were dying at the peak.

You know how Google serves up Wikipedia pandemic pages for nations when you search them. Trying doing "Uruguay COVID vaccine" or some of the less successful nations (in terms of death rates) versus those without huge death spikes. Somehow, Google knows not to show disasters. Huh.

Chile's summer wave seemed in decline when mass vaccination began on Feb 2. Somehow Chile wound up with the rare three-humped viral wave, previously believed only to appear at Loch Ness. Isn't it amazing how many vaccination campaigns were started at the tops of case waves?

Analysis on hold for superior automation. To be continued (soon)...

Hungary's CFR went 3.4x from Dec 28, 2020 went it began mass vaccination through Feb 14, less than 7 weeks later.

Sweden began mass vaccination on Dec 27, 2020 and CFR went 4.3x from 0.74% to 3.19% in a matter of 18 days. #CoincidenceTheory FTW!

If we cull the frail, we get to claim mortality benefits among the living? Is that how this works?

In case you haven't noticed, vaccination programs largely began in the Northern hemisphere around peaks of Winter waves, then a few weeks *later* in the Southern hemisphere nations around Peaks of Summer waves. What better way to wash mortality numbers together?

Poland started vaccination of Dec 28, 2020 and 18 days later, CFR had nearly doubled. Notice these 18 day times-to-peak? That's the median days-to-death for a COVID fatality.

If you've noticed a second rise in CFR months later, that is likely just the fact that the vaccines reduce the number of mild COVID cases far more than they do fatalities. Hopefully. The worst case scenario is ADE, but so far skewed efficacy explains most all data I see. (I hope)

Portugal began on Dec 27 when CFR was 1.72%. 20 days later it topped out at 4.72%.

Paraguay is one of those nations that did not see an early CFR bump (Feb 21), but instead saw a large case bump. It's interesting how either-or that proposition seems to be. The results is excess deaths either way.

Norway began vaccinating Dec 27 with a spot CFR of 0.67%. 16 days later (very close to our running theme), the spot CFR was 1.42%.

Understand that I'm not dodging nations. Mostly picking one from a list of highly vaccinated nations, then filling in my spreadsheet around it.

Holy South Africa! CFR had been moving lower until vaccination began Feb 16. 37 days later it was an astonishing 10.57%.

Back to mass calculations. Next run is ready. To be continued...

This is Europe in aggregate. Most nations started vaccination programs at around the same date, but not all, so I normalize this chart to days before and after vaccination start date. It is quite clear that a substantial wave of deaths followed the outset of vaccination.

In particular, the lag time between case counts and deaths changed suddenly! What do you supposed happened?

This is for Europe aggregated per days since vaccination program began. The rise in CFR over the first 18-20 days is unmistakable! Vaccines killed many many people.

I'm the unvaccinated statistician your mother warned you about.

Estimated excess mortality from the first 30 days of European vaccination, suspiciously counted as COVID deaths: 17,000+. That is just over 1000 deaths/million doses. These numbers likely level substantially after the elderly are vaccinated or dead, so don't take that as final.

For another look, consider the nations that vaccinated considerably after being relatively naive to COVID. Despite lower numbers of elderly with comorbidities, they do show 380 deaths per million doses.