Rounding the Earth Profile picture
Applied Statistician and textbook author. https://t.co/CgtYrz2q9K Currently writing #TheChloroquineWars Twetch: @38177
J Doe (they/them) Profile picture 2 added to My Authors
2 Aug
I'm performing an analysis on what happens to CFR in nations after starting mass vaccination.

If somebody has time to work with me on this project who has excellent data handling skills, and can spare a couple of days, contact me.

In the meantime, I'm going to drop results...
India began mass vaccination Jan 16. CFR has gone up a bit. These are not mRNA vaccines. The rise in CFR may be that efficacy favors reducing milder cases more than the deadlier ones. Image
The U.S. (primarily mRNA) began mass vaccination Dec 21, 2020. CFR has been on the decline, but went up, and too quickly for the 12 day AB lag to build up in any significant part of the population. Image
Read 14 tweets
22 Jul
1. Yesterday, I got a text from my favorite scaly statistician, @drrollergator and was all,

HAVE YOU SEEN HAAS ISRAELI DATA PAPER, OMG THIS IS DUM AND MISLEADING

So, I was like, "Saw it. Haven't had time to consume it. Fill me in."
2. So, the gator (who should probably be POTUS) jumped on zoom and started showing Bayesian analysis and he was like

FOR THIS AGE RANGE AND THAT AGE RANGE, THESE THINGS DON'T LOOK AS GOOD AS THEY SAY AND MIGHT LEAD TO OVERCONFIDENCE AND EVERYTHING IS DUMB
3. He further explained that even the relative risks took advantage of the declining infection curve since those vaccinated spent more time on average at the low end of the infection curve.
Read 7 tweets
14 Jul
1. The story that the unvaccinated are "Variant Factories" is a lie that must be answered.

Technically, every infected individual is a variant factory, but such a statement is misleading in the extreme...
2. Point mutations occur at random in viruses, all the time, constantly. Most mutations either result in nonviable progeny, or progeny that is no more (and potentially less) harmful. That's > 99.99999% of such progeny.
3. So, it does not matter that there is greater diversity among surviving mutated strains among the unvaccinated. According to Muller's ratchet, selection continues to less harmful survivors, no matter how diverse.
Read 9 tweets
11 Jun
1. Yesterday on @BretWeinstein's podcast, Robert Malone, inventor of the mRNA vaccine, told the world that the spike protein is indeed opening up the blood brain barrier. This should lead to a redefinition of both COVID-19 and vaccine adverse events. I will explain...
2. Coronaviruses never previously caused all the kinds of damage we have seen. It seems almost certain now that the spiked protein is itself responsible for much of what we call C19 and also vaccine adverse events.
3. We should then be talking about something like COVID-type-1 and COVID-type-2 illnesses. The SARS-CoV-2 virus causes both, but those that overlap with the vaccines might be defined as the type 2.
Read 16 tweets
9 Jun
Wagers:

1. Of the next 20 research papers examining effects of HCQ treatment of C19 patients, the majority show positive results.

2. Same bet for IVM.

(Since some studies are small, we ignore stat significance.)

I can go $5,000 apiece.

We can agree on an arbiter.
Who wants a piece?

We can define terms more precisely, of course. This is a tweet to get the ball rolling.
Disclaimer: I am involved (funded) in data collection and statistical analysis of the results for both medications.
Read 4 tweets
12 May
These words don't mean what you think they mean...

roundingtheearth.substack.com/p/the-informat…
I'm not "anti-mask".

I'm "most common masks do very little for an aerosolized virus one-two-thousands the size of the pores" and "there really are trade-offs of health and communication" and "harassing people over this seems crazy".
I'm not "anti-vaxx".

I'm "I'd like to know the long term risks both for my person and also existential risks such as leaked evolutionary pressure that might make this thing go 'Spanish flu' for real this time" and "give me a cost-benefit analysis first" and "kids? Really?!"
Read 14 tweets
16 Apr
55. I feel strongly enough about the weirdness of "anti-vaxxer" shaming people who don't want to be part of a mass human trial that I'm including this in the thread of threads.
56. An excellent thread by @the_brumby laying out the evidence of lockdown efficacy (it ain't good).

57. A history of following the herd in medicine.
Read 16 tweets
19 Dec 20
There is a strangely organized rumor going around that the AMA passed a resolution recognizing the efficacy of HCQ and calling on a reversal of its suppression. Unfortunately, that resolution was not passed, but I suggest the story is more interesting than that...
When you think about it, the resolution never had a chance of passing. Intuitively, we all know this. The AMA and Pharma are far too intertwined, and further with the government. Suggesting that the resolution could pass would be to suggest there was no opposition to begin with.
But here is the interesting part: Almost nobody, save for the few of us doing broad levels of research on the topic, knew to step in and correct the mistake. What does that mean?
Read 9 tweets
18 Dec 20
@Kevin_McKernan @BrunnerCreative @ScottAdamsSays @vgttrom @JamesTodaroMD There are 20 natural experiments, and in 19 of them, the nation starting to use HCQ saw mortality rates fall OR the nation stopping usage saw it rise relative to baseline.

I will drop some of my own graphs here...
@Kevin_McKernan @BrunnerCreative @ScottAdamsSays @vgttrom @JamesTodaroMD Portugal stopped using in late May while their CFR was tanking. A couple of weeks later that trend reversed (median days to death is 18.5).
Read 14 tweets
7 Nov 20
As a consistent third party voter living in a state that wasn't going to swing a close election, I don't vote R or D.

But this is the time to throw weight behind an investigation into the possibility of a stolen election. We must investigate the statistical evidence.
So, let us investigate the statistical evidence broadly and as a community. Carefully and honestly. Benford's law is a clever technique, but there is an underlying reason behind it that should be understood to best apply the fundamental test.
The reason behind it is that population pools grow exponentially, so they move through orders of magnitude at an invariant rate. If we take the logarithm, the results are then linear. Discarding the integer parts, the fraction parts should form a uniform distribution.
Read 8 tweets
2 Nov 20
1. This thread is a bit of comic relief from the pandemic.
2. Somewhere, out in the Ocean, a beautiful and thriving civilization spans the island of Pandemos. Larger in land size than Australia, you might miss it on a map, er, due to distortions in scale caused by Mercator projection.
3. The lush and resourceful Pandemos has allowed for the Pandemosians to engineer an amazing modern society.
Read 31 tweets
31 Oct 20
1. This is a thread compiling the most interesting threads of the 2020 pandemic. If you've seen a thread or even a single epic tweet that you think belongs, share it and I'll consider adding it.
2. The #LancetGate may get a few mentions along the way.

How did anyone who handle the Surgisphere study prior to publication think it would look real?
3. Here is James Todaro tweeting about chloroquine, clearly after numerous conversations about it, a week prior to Trump's first mention.
Read 25 tweets
31 Oct 20
1. This thread is about a statistical phenomenon called a Simpson's paradox and how it relates to the #Hydroxychloroquine research that gets so hotly debated.

A more complete version of this analysis will appear in my next book #TheChloroquineWars.
2. If you are unfamiliar with Simpson's paradoxes, you can read up on the basics here. However, the example I present may well teach the concept. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%2…
3. Consider three hospitals with different treatment policies. Perhaps the standard of care (SoC) is uniform, for the sake of simplicity, but the hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) treatment policies are different.
Read 21 tweets
30 Oct 20
1. This is a very brief story about how two members of the U.S. COVID-19 Treatment Guidelines Panel hid their financial disclosures with Gilead Sciences, makers of remdesivir...
2. Exhibit A: On April 22, Rajesh Gandhi and Pablo Tebas disclosed financial relationships with Gilead Sciences.

web.archive.org/web/2020042215…
3. Exhibit B: Sometime between then and now, Rajesh Gandhi and Pablo Tebas retracted their disclosures of financial relationships with Gilead Sciences.

covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/panel-financia…
Read 4 tweets
29 Oct 20
Unfortunately, it's going to be a couple of weeks before I complete my book, #TheChloroquineWars about the strange tale of #Hydroxychloroquine politics during the pandemic. It's not an easy book to write in 10 weeks. So, as a teaser, I'm going to tweet out a full chapter now...
Chapter 29: A Clockwork Orange Man

“In questions of science, the authority of a thousand is not worth the humble reasoning of a single individual.” --Galileo Galilei
In 1951, Solomon Asch conducted a landmark experiment in which students were asked to match the segment on a card with one of the same length on another card, a total of 18 times.
Read 40 tweets