Thread by @therealarod1984

8/5 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality update:

THREAD:

Highlights for 8/5:
1) Antigen Pos% peaked on 7/30, PCR still stubbornly fighting a crest
2) Cases still in steep climb
3) Hospitalizations also steep but less so than 2020 Summer wave
4) Fatality arrival breakdown

1/n

8/5 Positivity Rate:

* Antigen 100% confirmed in post-peak. Peak is currently 7/30. The peak date might shift a day or two, but the peak has occurred. Calling it.
* PCR Pos% fighting the crest. Barely 1 point of growth in 6 days. Its imminent.

2/n
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8/5 Cases:

Another 10K+ day, with 10912 reported. Still a high rate of growth. With Antigen in decline & PCR cresting, we look for decreased rate of growth in Cases. Next 2 days will be telling.

7DMA almost near 2020 Summer peak, a product of huge testing increase.

3/n

8/4 Hospitalizations:

Patients tagged as C19 still only at 12% of total beds. Remember that- 12%. Not 100%. Still losing ground to 2020 Summer wave. These next 5-6 days will have a really steep rate of growth & then we watch for a decrease in rate of growth mid next week.

4/n

8/5 Fatalities Part 1:

* Primer for background info in 7/n
* 2021 numbers thru 7/14, 2020 thru 6/15. 13 months apart.
* 2020 actuals continue to outpace 2021 projected & really outpacing 2021 actuals. This will continue at least until next set of projections on Wed

5/n

8/5 Fatalities Part 2:

* 76 Reported
* About twice what was reported last Thurs.
* As I've stated repeatedly, expect fatalities to rise. They cannot stay flat w/ this number of hosps. The PCR yeast is baked in the loaf.
* Same pattern, virtually nothing past 2 weeks old

6/n
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8/5 - Primer on Fatalities:

Thought I would repost my original geeky thread from 7/20/21, where I went step by step through the arrival of death certificates to the state over time. And the model I built around that process.

7/n
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8/5 Conclusion:

* Antigen is in decline, it peaked on 7/30. Watching for PCR to do same
* vs 2020 Summer - Cases ahead, hospitalizations & fatalities behind. Same ole, Same ole
* Were in the steepest part of the climb. We've got about 5-6 days of this. Stay strong!

8/n

8/5 P.S.:

I'm traveling this weekend so updates will be short and spotty. I'll do my best to look at the numbers and send out any relevant musings. Be back in on Monday.

9/end