Thread by @FPL_Serpent

💰 Promoted Tax 💰

We often talk about transitioning from the Championship to the Prem, but what is the conversion?

I’ve taken the last 6 seasons into account to find the average transition rate when Promoted, and predict the best newcomers this season.

#FPL #FPLCommunity

🧤GKs

🧤 -8.7%
🛡 -41.8%

With the GKs, we can see the Save % still stays relatively high, so we may aim to score Save Points with Promoted Goalkeepers.

But the CS % shoots down due to facing higher quality. But we can see a Double Digit Haul when CS’ come.

🧤21/22 Predictions

I think that Krul will have the highest Save % as he’ll likely face the most shots, but I would steer clear of him & Raya for fixtures.

I really like Bachmann as he’s £4.5, and has a high Save Potential, with a relatively high Clean Sheet %. Superb option.

🛡DEFs

⚽️ -57.5%
🅰️ -51.2%
🛡 -39.0%

We all want a Defender with returns at both ends of the pitch. But it seems that all stats take a huge dip for Promoted sides.

Apart from an elite few (Dallas & Doherty) all stats dip, so it’s definitely a wait and see for promoted DEFs.

🛡21/22 Predictions

Looking at the predictions, it doesn’t seem worth picking a Promoted Defender currently as the attacking potential is very low.

If I had to pick one it would be Fermenía, but with Bachmann having higher points potential I would still avoid him.

⚡️MIDs

⚽️ -58.3%
🅰️ -62.9%

Looking at Midfielders, their numbers almost always drop by >50%, often making these assets not worth owning.

But last season their Goalscoring records mostly improved. It seems if the MID is the talisman, like Pereira, they are still a strong pick!

⚡️21/22 Predictions

Using previous year’s numbers, we can see that Cantwell isn’t really an option. But I quite like Mbeumo as they’re great returns for a £5.5 MiD.

Sarr excites me as I think he’ll outperform those numbers and be one of the best cheap picks this season.

🎯FWDs

⚽️ -64.0%
🅰️ -50.0%

It is very often that Forward’s numbers drop significantly when playing better defences, but we frequently see STs improve their assists as they drop deeper.

Only Bamford has outperformed his EFL goals, possibly due to their attacking style of play.

🎯21/22 Predictions

This tells me we should forget Watford FWDs due to Sarr. But the other two are great value. Pukki’s fixtures turn at GW6 and 11 returns at £6.0 would be superb.

But Toney is the star, and if he gets 12 Goals he’ll be essential at £6.5. 100% in my draft!

📜Verdict

🧤
Looking at GKs, Bachmann (£4.5) is the one, with high Clean Sheet potential and a high Save %. I have him in my draft and think he’ll be superb this year.

🛡
I’d avoid Defenders for now as it’s not clear which Promoted full back will be most attacking.

⚡️
Sarr (£6.0) is the standout here, being last season’s top scorer and the sides talisman. I’d avoid consider Mbeumo if you need a budget option.

🎯
Toney (£6.5) is the star who seems essential for the price, and I see Pukki (£6.0) exploding from GW6, so an easy transfer there.