8/9 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality update:
THREAD:
Highlights for 8/9:
1) Rates of growth continue to slow
2) PCR typical Monday showing a peak, but rate of growth almost zero
3) Cases flattening?
4) Hospitalizations rate of growth slowing
5) Fatality breakdown
1/n
.
8/9 Rate of Growth Analysis
* PCR Positivity Rate of growth is nearly zero, lowest since June 16
* Case Rate of growth is slowest since July 7
* Hospitalization rate of growth is slowest since July 18
2/n
.
8/9 Positivity Rate
* Antigen peak holds at Aug 1. Now 8 days of declines
* PCR now 2 days of decline, an Aug 6 peak
* However, we've seen this before after a weekend. Tomorrow will be key to see if PCR Peak holds. With rate of growth ~ zero, better chance of this.
3/n
.
8/9 Cases:
* Lowest Case rate of growth since July 7
* 2nd time in 4 days we see a week over week decline
* Still averaging over 10K cases per day in the 7 Day moving average.
* Keep eye out for continued rate of growth declines
4/n
.
8/9 Hospitalizations
* Lowest rate of growth since July 18
* Patients tagged as C19 cross 15% of total beds
* Same as yesterday vs. 2020
* Next 2-3 days will be critical in regards to seeing if rate of growth starts to decline more rapidly, similar to 2020 Summer curve.
5/n
.
8/9 Fatalities Part 1:
* Primer in 8/n
* 2021 numbers thru 7/18, 2020 thru 6/19. 13 months apart.
* 2020 actuals continuing to pad lead over 2021. 28 days in.
* New projections tomorrow, and appears it will be more downward revisions.
6/n
.
8/9 Fatalities Part 2:
* 8 reported today, double the 4 reported last Monday
* 3 weeks back is July 18, so will be interesting to see what comes in for July 15th-20th in the next 2-3 days.
7/n
.
8/9 - Primer on Fatalities:
The original geeky thread from 7/20/21, where I went step by step through the arrival of death certificates to the state over time. And the model I built around that process.
8/n
.
8/9 Conclusion:
* Good day for Pos% & Case growth. Hospitalizations fingers crossed by Thursday we can see the beginnings of a real slowdown as we move toward peak.
* Signs point to mid-August peak in Texas, but I'm not Nostradamus and this is a virus, LOL.
9/end
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