Thread by @BillHanage

There has been a lot of noise about the proportion of COVID cases, hospitalizations and even deaths that occur among vaccinated people. This is misleading. In this working paper we show how getting vaxxed improves your chances using relative risk cdn1.sph.harvard.edu/wp-content/upl…… 1/x

This is the formula relating relative risk of an outcome for unvaxxed vs vaxxed people to efficacy. It tells you how many more time likely an unvaxxed person is to die, be hospitalized etc, relative to a vaxxed person 2/x

Sorry for big table, but the headline finding is that unvaxxed persons were between 5 and 133 times *more likely to be hospitalized* and between 9 and 141 *more likely to die* in comparison with fully vaxxed 3/x

This is consistent with VE vs hospitalization of 80-99% and vs death of 89-99%. 4/x

This is based on data from several states. This is Arkansas 1/1/21 to 7/29/21. Each square represents 200 people. over this period 68 fully vaxxed sadly died from covid. The corresponding number for the not fully vaxxed was 2543 5/x

It’s a point I’ve made before… 6/x

there are a lot of reasons for the wide ranges in the estimates, including age structure (of states and those vaccinated). But the facts remain that covid is a serious infection, and #vaccineswork. Thx to the excellent Jarvis Chen, @_christiantesta and Nancy Krieger.

finally, a comparison, from the working paper. The vaccine is like a seatbelt, in fact it is better than a seatbelt. 8 (I think?)/end