There needs to be truth-telling about the reduced protection of mRNA vaccines vs symptomatic Delta infections.
It was 95% pre-Delta.
Many are claiming it's still ~80%.
It isn't.
50-60% is best estimate from all sources (not US, since we don't have the data)
Why is this important?
Because we need to protect the protected, the fully vaccinated.
Sure we want to get more people vaccinated, but truth engenders trust. And truth helps guide people to be safe, use masks, distance, ventilation and all the other tools we have and know helps.
Look at Israel's Delta case surge, a model country for vaccination, >15 per cent points more of total population vaccinated than the US. That, in itself, tells us about the reduction of protection of mRNA vaccines vs cases/spread
I stand by my estimate, which includes soon to be published preprints with US data even lower than this range.
But the protection vs hospitalization and death is solid, holding up well, and is the reason why everyone should be vaccinated
More data summarized here, and more to come out soon
The Mayo Clinic study of 42% Pfizer vaccine efffectiveness vs Delta infections noted
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