Thread by @acosgrove003

Thermal #coal setup seems supportive for now - a thread 1/

Indian coal generation is up nicely you and underlying industrial activity suggests that will continue as 2H progresses

India coal stockpiles are nose diving at the same time - implying a decent bout of restocking lies ahead post monsoon

At the same - to no surprise China finds itself in a precarious inventory situation - Top 6 Plants Days of Burn

And lastly - while Vietnamese import demand has come off ytd - other SE Asian cohorts are softening the blow

So with demand set to stabilize - at worse - but more likely pickup in earnest as 2H progresses - let’s check on supply

Newcastle exports being nicely ‘matched’ to demand

… while Colombia and South Africa will likely continue to remain under pressure (although we could get a little bump in 2H acc to $GLEN guide)

On watch is Indonesia - while this series doesn’t capture exports in totality - it’s directionally useful and as you can see - things are picking up. But that’s ok for now bc the mkt is ‘calling’ on those tons

Minimal supply side upside surprises + restocking demand implies the thermal coal strength we’ve seen Ytd continues #CoalTwitter