Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #coal

Most recents (24)

THREAD: Dizzying U-turns on #ImportedCoal

In 3 months, the Centre has gone from mandating imported #coal blending for power gencos to making it optional.

In May, @MinOfPower directed gencos to blend 10% imported coal or face domestic supply reduction.

google.com/amp/s/wap.busi…
The ministry even evoked Section 11 of the Electricity Act allowing all power generators to pass through the high cost of imported coal on the consumers.

wap.business-standard.com/article/econom…
@ntpclimited was the first to place import tender of 6.25 million tonne. All the tenders totaling Rs 8,308 crore went to @AdaniOnline

It estimated a 50-70 paisa/unit increase in power tariff after 10% imported coal blending.

wap.business-standard.com/article-amp/co…
Read 9 tweets
1/ The earnings call season is underway and we started publishing Earnings Call Summaries last week. Coal availability is not looking good. Peabody Energy (#BTU) said they were unable to ship 23% of July month-to-date (thru Jul 28) customer nominations due to #Rail service issues
2/ As a #NaturalGas and #electricity analyst, I don’t really know what the term “customer nominations” means in the #coal business. That makes me ripe for substitution bias, which was discussed in LCMC’s January 2019 NG Research Dinner through #Tversky and #Kahneman’s work.
3/ Irrelevant detail? Here’s a counterpoint: 90% of Best Picture Academy Award (Oscar) "nominations" don't make it to the stage – context matters.
Read 7 tweets
Important tidbit from Joe Craft on today's $ARLP call - "Today, utilities are acknowledging that they're dispatching uneconomic gas over coal."
That's because coal stockpiles haven't really improved much since I tweeted this out.
Sub-bituminous #coal stockpiles - which saved western rate payers last year - are down 13 Mst YoY, with only about 10 Mst between May 31 levels and last year's Aug-Sept lows (during which natgas rose 66%).
Bituminous #coal stockpile situation is even worse, with levels at all time lows, and only 1.7 Mst away from last year's lows.

During that period last year, coal plants basically shut down to rebuild stockpiles while utilities burned uneconomic natgas...just like today.
Read 5 tweets
OK, so $AHQ.AX filed a strategic review…sucks for met #coal beta chasers.

But I’ve commented on several Spaces before that New Elk’s resurgence typically signals the end of a cycle, and even just given the ramp up costs and productivity concerns, it was never guaranteed. 1/x
The issues at hand for New Elk are obvious…far far far from both domestic and export markets on an unfriendly railroad to Met coal.

But more importantly it has very little mining history, which renders operational risk management almost impossible.

Both were problems. 2/x
The question I had six months ago was: sure, it works at high prices, but will prices stay high enough for long enough to make the asset profitable.

Well 6 months in and now we know the answer is “no”. 3/x
Read 6 tweets
A 🧵about #coal & snails.
17 years ago, all 6000 of a rare & endangered species, a newly-discovered giant land snail, Powelliphanta augusta, were taken fm their only home, on the West Coast, to make way for an opencast #coal mine.
Where were they moved to? 🧐
...a fridge ❄️ /2
Later, about 4000 were moved to other parts of the Denniston Plateau, in an effort to see if they will survive there. This is still unknown: the survival rate is low.
In 2011 800 snails died when the fridge malfunctioned and they froze to death. 🥶😱 /3
bbc.com/news/world-asi…
In 2016 state-owned #coal company Solid Energy washed its hands of the snails - despite having destroyed their habitat & failing to "rehabilitate" the sites where the snails used to live.
Solid handed over all responsibility to DOC /4 nzherald.co.nz/nz/decade-long…
Read 9 tweets
𝗗𝗿𝘆 𝗕𝘂𝗹𝗸
Investment case, in charts ✅
Thread below 🧵

$GOGL $SBLK $DSX $GNK $EGLE $SHIP $SB $BDRY $GRIN $PANL $EDRY $CMRE $NMM $DNORD $OP @2Bulkers $BELCO $JINJ $HSHIP $KCCK $WEST

Charts re: #coal & iron ore below, relevant to $ARCH $BTU $AMR $CEIX $RIO $VALE $BHP
1.
2.
Read 30 tweets
China's most-traded #IronOre futures plunge 5.9% at night open, coke down 4.8%, coking #coal down 2.8%, hot rolled coils down 2.7%, #SteelRebar down 1.8%. Image
Benchmark Dalian #IronOre futures extend losses to 6.8% at 669 yuan/ton amid property sector turmoil.
Shanghai non-ferrous #metals fall on demand outlook, #nickel down 4.2%, #tin down 2.6%, #zinc down 1.6%.
Read 6 tweets
How bad is the EU's taxonomy "green" pass on gas? Worse than I thought. A thread 🧵
Based on @BeyondCoal's fantastic database, there are 157 #coal power plants in Europe.

Within EU-27, the operating capacity of coal power plants in 2021 was 127 GW emitting about 388 Mt CO2 per year. These are my reference numbers.

Data: beyond-coal.eu/database/
Let's say fossil gas power plants replace 10%, 50% or all existing coal power plants in the EU before 2030.

Taking into account the taxonomy limits projects to 115% of the capacity of the coal power plant they replace, added fossil gas capacity would be between 15 and 146 GW.
Read 9 tweets
#coal: could coking spot move below thermal given a recessionary slow down in steel production, yet power generation deficit due to Russian sanctions? Creating elevated #metcoal prices for longer? Providing a boost to 2023 margins for the new undervalued start ups...
$CKA $AHQ
The 2023 economics:

1m/t production @ US$100-150 cash margin = A$140-200m CF

1.5m/t @ US$100-150 = A$200-300m CF

Valuation multiples of 1-1.5x cashflow, assuming material stock buy backs = re-rate to 2.5-3.5x is very possible.

$CKA $AHQ
Self funding #coal takeover bids? As cashflow run rates imply less than 2x cashflow valuations, or 50% cashflow yields, wouldn't it be attractive to announce a bid at say 25-30% yield? $CKA has had at least 2 bids in the past, insiders own around 50%, don't be surprised in a 3rd.
Read 5 tweets
If you're not loading up on #coal as hedgies dump for the typical end of quarter ESG window dressing, you're doing it wrong.

$BTU $CEIX $ARCH $AMR
The terminal value for most US thermal coal producers just got extended dramatically, which means they definitely shouldn't be pricing in prices going to $0 after 2024 & trade at ~1x p/e
Imagine dumping thermal #coal (& by extension met coal due to reasons stated before) because oil is going down despite Russia ensuring every single coal plant in EU getting restarted ASAP.

Read 3 tweets
Our new report: 'Unburnable #Carbon - 10 Years On' finds global stock markets 🏦 are financing energy companies which are sitting on 3x more #coal, #oil & #gas reserves than can be burned without breaking the 1.5°C Paris climate target carbontracker.org/reports/uburna… #CarbonBubble
🧵Despite growing urgency to tackle #ClimateChange, 'Unburnable #Carbon' reveals “embedded #emissions” in the #FossilFuel🛢️reserves of companies listed on stock exchanges – the CO2 released if they’re extracted & burned – has grown by nearly 40% since 2012 carbontracker.org/reports/uburna…
@CarolineLucas @EdwardJDavey @Ed_Miliband @MichaelEMann @CFigueres @AnnPettifor @billmckibben @martinwolf_ @AlokSharma_RDG The report warns that 90% of all known #FossilFuel🛢️reserves & resources held by companies must stay in the ground as 'unburnable #carbon' to limit global warming to 1.5°C🌡️🛑carbontracker.org/reports/uburna… #KeepItInTheGround
Read 13 tweets
🧵In 2011, our 1st report: 'Unburnable Carbon: Are the World’s Financial Markets Carrying a #CarbonBubble?' found ~80% of declared reserves of listed #FossilFuel companies were at risk of stranding, if the world stayed below 2˚C temp rise... carbontracker.org/reports/carbon… Image
Since 2011, both #emissions & #FossilFuel🛢️reserves with listed ownership have increased 📈, while the world’s climate policy ambition has strengthened post #ParisAgreement to not exceed 1.5˚C temp🌡️rise🛑carbontracker.org/reports/carbon… #CarbonBubble
Despite the global distribution of #oil, #gas & #coal mining production, financing of #FossilFuel companies is concentrated in a small number of financial centres & stock exchanges in likes of New York, London, Moscow carbontracker.org/reports/carbon… Image
Read 4 tweets
⚡China's most-traded coking coal, coke, iron ore futures extend declines at night opening. Coking coal down 4.3%, coke down 3.8%, iron ore down 3.7%.
#coal #ironore #CoalTwitter #China
⚡Shanghai non-ferrous #metals fall at market open, #tin down 2.3%, #copper down 1%.
⚡Shanghai low sulfur fuel oil futures dop 1.7%, fuel futures down 1.6%, crude oil futures down 1.4%. #OOTT
Read 6 tweets
#energy is life; and is the foundation upon which complex industrial civilization is built. Our #EnergyCrisis has begun; and we face the slide into #Collapse as that foundation crumbles.
#OPEC reveals production declines for May 2022.

oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-O…
The #Diesel crisis won't be fixed by new refining capacity.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 11 tweets
NEW report: Many gov's and companies present fossil gas as a "bridging fuel" on the way to a renewables based electricity sector.

We've tested this claim: to limit #globalwarming to 1.5°C, fossil gas must exit the global power system by 2040, very soon after #coal.

A 🧵1/6
Globally, fossil gas electricity generation should start declining immediately, falling to just 15% of total  electricity generation by 2030 & 10% by 2035.

Rich countries must move first.

Developing countries will need support to shift to renewable energy systems at pace. 2/6
The report phase-out dates are averages at the regional level. Meaning, it can be earlier if a country already has little or no gas in the electricity system. For those countries highly reliant on fossil gas power generation, the phase-out has to be a little later.

3/6
Read 6 tweets
1/ #ZEPAK #analiza

Dziś w nawiązaniu do obietnicy poniżej 👇 analiza @ZEPAKS
#energetyka #GPW #akcje

Prośba o Re-tweet / Like jeśli uważasz content za wartościowy. 💙 👍
#energetyka #GPW #research #investing
@Zepaks 2/ Na początek kilka informacji:
- podjąłem się analizy jako challenge mema @dingoromuald, którego komentarz (2 mld PLN EBITDA'23) vs. MCap (ok. 1 mld PLN) wydał mi się na tyle absurdalny, że postanowiłem sam to sprawdzić;
- analiza jest wyrazem mojego własnego postrzegania spraw
@Zepaks @DingoRomuald 3/ - nie gwarantuję, że jest ona wolna od wad i błędów, choć starałem się dołożyć staranności, aby konkluzje były oparte na danych, faktach i racjonalnych założeniach;
- jestem otwarty na ich krytykę i dyskusję w temacie;
- jednocześnie zachęcam do własnego researchu i analizy!
Read 38 tweets
1/19) #Uranium - a Tutorial👨‍🏫 walking U thru the #Nuclear fuel cycle, what it is, the stages & issues involved, so U can understand the term that has every Uranium investor smacking their lips today: Overfeeding!😋 Here's a thread that I hope gives U some key insights.🌞⚛️⛏️🧵👇2
2) #Uranium is a very different fuel than #coal & #gas that are burned "as is" in #electricity power plants.🏭⚡️ #Nuclear reactor fuel needs to be specially processed & then loaded into fuel rods that are then loaded into reactors to generate #CarbonFree electricity.🌞⚛️⚡️👇3 Image
3) Mined #Uranium⛏️ is processed into drums of Yellow Cake #U3O8🛢️ that in the west are shipped🚢🚛 to plants in Canada, US & France for "Conversion" into a new form called #UF6 which is then shipped in cylinders🚛 to plants in US & Europe for "Enrichment" into reactor fuel.⚛️👇4 Image
Read 19 tweets
Here’s a master thread of my long threads on nuclear/renewables:

- #NuclearPower summary

- Nuclear Vs #Solar

- #Renewables: metals/fossil fuel needed to build solar/wind

- #EV Car Batteries: supply chain/environmental

- #Electric Grid: issues with intermittency of renewables
Here’s a comparison of the materials needed for #NuclearPower versus #solar 👇
Read 6 tweets
My latest @RealClearEnergy :
If you think the world is moving #beyondcoal think again...over the past few weeks, China & India have announced plans to increase their domestic #coal production by a combined total of 700M tons/yr.
@JudeClemente @SierraClub

realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/…
@RealClearEnergy @JudeClemente @SierraClub For perspective, US coal production this year will total about 600M tons. The surge in coal demand in China and India – as well as in the U.S., where coal use jumped by 17% last year – demonstrates two things:
@RealClearEnergy @JudeClemente @SierraClub First, it shows that the Iron Law of Electricity has not been broken,Second, it shows that it is far easier to talk about cutting emissions than it is to achieve significant cuts.
@BrianGitt
Read 8 tweets
#CoalTwitter #Coal $BTU $ARCH $AMR

Allow me to put on my David Lee Roth Leather Leotard and kick off a Coal-Fired Conspiracy:

@contrarian8888
@dyer440
@respeculator
@James56487175
@aggresivevalue
@Edark94
@zhanginu
@Ultradeep3
@trader_ferg
@mfwarder
@OutlierValue

1/12
On IB, Thurs marked the 4th Margin Increase notice on $BTU in 3 weeks.

As my largest position, I'm keenly aware of how my 'availability' can be affected by a margin change - let alone 4 in frenzied fashion.

Customer Service says that 'Risk' has determined that they have

2/12
Too much exposure to this name and now have raised Mtx Margin to 83% (eff Mon).

Peculiarly, Mtx SHORT Positions are only 34% - when 100%+ is the norm (more on this later)

This might be proper RM, you say?

Well, let's take a quick look at IB Mtx Margin on some BIG names:

3/12
Read 12 tweets
We have been writing about #Inflation and how it is impacting common people like us.

In this #Thread 🧵we did a detailed study on "How Government is Attempting to Control Inflation, which is here to stay."

Like ❤️ and Retweet 🔄 for more such Informational Threads.
Retail Inflation reached 7.79% in April, which is the highest level in 8 years. Since then, the Government has come under fire.

The Government needed to act quickly to help all the poor and middle-class who have been suffering from poverty since the pandemic.
𝙍𝙚𝙙𝙪𝙘𝙚 𝙀𝙭𝙘𝙞𝙨𝙚 𝘿𝙪𝙩𝙮

Reduced the excise duty on #Petrol by Rs 9.5/Litre and Diesel by Rs 7/Litre, lowering the transportation costs for the commodities.

business-standard.com/article/econom…
Read 8 tweets
What's the benefit of low AISC mining plays Vs High?

A) profitable over the cycle
B) mint cashflow near historic peak spot prices
C) high IRRs near peak prices
D) ability utilize high cashflow for debt termination, stock buy backs and dividends
E) cycle bottom to peak often >10x
Benefits of scaling production Vs peak?

A) doubling volumes with halving margins = steady cashflow

B) increasing economies of scale due to fixed costs spread over increasing volume

C) low AISC coupled with scalability at low capex is Cashflow minting in 4th quartile pricing
We are asked often would we sell certain positions given declining spot prices Vs our target fair value prices.

The answer is a combination of is it trading on less than 1x implied annual cashflow (based on 2023 cashflows), will 2025 volumes more than double, 2027 triple?
Read 6 tweets
Africa should take full advantage of current elevated prices to cash in on mineral wealth: The African continent is home to substantial reserves of #copper and #cobalt (in the Democratic Republic of the Congo—DRC—Zambia, South Africa and Zimbabwe), #diamonds (in Botswana and…
Angola), #platinum (in South Africa and Zimbabwe), #uranium (in Namibia, Niger and South Africa), #gold (in Ghana, South Africa and Sudan), #iron (in South Africa), #manganese (in South Africa, Gabon and Ghana), bauxite (in Guinea), #lithium (in Zimbabwe), #coal (in South Africa
and Mozambique), #naturalgas (in Algeria, Egypt and Nigeria) and #petroleum (in Nigeria, Angola, Algeria and Libya).
Read 8 tweets
🧵We are a group of volunteers exploring existing and non-conventional options for moving #Ukrainian #grains, #wheat and #agricultural products into the #European #Railway Network for distribution to EU #Export terminals, primarily, but not exclusively on the #Danube Waterway.
Why, what's stopping this?

Similar to @Apple, @Microsoft or @Android Operating Systems, #Ukraine's and #Europe's #trains, #locomotives & #wagons operate on physically different track widths.

While having similar functionalities, they don't "play well with each other".
2/
Specifically, a Ukrainian train cannot travel on a European railway (track) and European trains cannot travel on Ukrainian railways.

The width, called "Gauge", between rails is different. Ukrainian is 1520mm wide, while European is 1435mm.
3/
Read 21 tweets

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