Thread by @JasonILTG

Today I'll be talking about how to exploit the KHM quick draft bots! Slightly different topic than usual - still underrated cards, but this time underrated by bots. 1/x

So last night I wanted to play some draft, but I was bored of AFR and didn't want to try learning AKR. But then I realized that KHM was available in quick draft! Definitely wasn't going to turn down drafting one of my favorite formats, even if it was with bots. 2/x

So the first thing I did was to go to 17lands and look at KHM quick draft ALSA. This is an even more useful stat in bot draft than it is in human drafts, as bots are more predictable - if you see a card with very high ALSA, you can basically always count on it wheeling. 3/x

Worth noting - I'm filtering for this week only, since the bots may have been changed since last time KHM draft was around. The sample size isn't huge, but you don't need much sample size for ALSA anyways, especially for bots. 4/x

Top commons: unsurprisingly, bots take removal way too highly. But what's surprising are some of the random junky commons near the top here - Valkyrie, Skull Raid, Draugr, even Raven. Not bad cards, but between them and medium removal, most of my top commons are missing. 5/x

White commons: Battlefield Raptor is low enough here that you can pick it up on the wheel pretty often, and is a draw into white. Wings of the Cosmos is also worth noting, as is Shieldmate, as both solid cards. I'll get to Giant Ox. 6/x

Blue commons: I'm not a huge fan of blue in KHM in general, and there's not much to exploit here. Berg Strider is a bit low, but still highly picked. Funnily enough, Run Ashore looks like it's less underrated than in player drafts. 7/x

Black commons: Here's one of the biggest places to exploit bots I think. All the bad black removal is way overdrafted, leaving the good elf synergy pieces (Deathknell, Faithful, Gifts, Rites, Raise) free for the taking. 8/x

Red commons: Like blue, there's not much to exploit here. I think Tormentor's Helm is a bit harder to get than in player drafts; anecdotally my RW decks have felt short equipment a bunch. 9/x

Green commons: I'm both proud and sad that Sentinel doesn't wheel. But it and Lindwurm still go pretty late. Revenge, predictably, goes super late, which is great for elves. And the same applies for Arachnoform/Veil for the GW bogles deck, especially with Raptor where it is. 10/x

Colorless commons: Pick is picked about the same rate as in player draft, Karve a bit higher than in player draft. U/G snow lands (basic and dual) are all around 4.2-4.5 ALSA, a good 0.5 above player draft. From seeing this and the green common order, I'd avoid snow. 11/x

Snow uncommons: Again there's a lot of snow cards at the top: Caller, Narfi, Spirit, Pillar, even Brawl and Valkyrie. Everything in these ALSA numbers suggests that snow is very hard to get into. 12/x

Misc: There's a bunch of uncommons that I think are slightly underrated, but not consistently wheeling or anything: Shadowsage and Return for elves; Koll, runes, and equipment; Path to the World Tree. 13/x

But, other than snow being overdrafted, one of my biggest takeaways here is that the saclands are heinously underdrafted. I had a Naya deck (sadly only 6 wins) that played 7 saclands, and 19 lands total. They're *very* powerful; see this essay: docs.google.com/document/d/e/2…. 14/x

And finally, Colossal Plow always wheels. And since Ox always does too, you can pretty consistently get a good Ox/Plow deck. 15/x

Just to touch on rares and mythics: All of them are highly picked, even the bad ones. Don't try to wheel situational rares like Harald Unites the Elves or Pyre of Heroes. 16/x

Conclusion: My overall recommendation for exploiting bots are to try to be either RW leveraging Hawk and runes, BG leveraging elves, or non-snow multicolor midrange (probably GW) leveraging saclands. I'd stay away from giants and snow, but they can still come together. 17/17

Here's my trophies so far:
(sadly no 17lands because I've been playing on mobile)