Was talking on Discord a bit about why I think the UW tap deck failed design-wise this format, and figured I'd translate my points here.

So, here's a thread:
1/x It's pretty clear by now that the UW tap archetype just isn't working in WOE.

UW is the worst color pair in WOE on 17lands - just barely above 50% winrate, which is atrocious, same as LTR scry elves.

I think the reasons for this are actually quite interesting.
2/x

Bit of a different kind of "underrated card" thread today. I usually don't do rares, and one could reasonably argue that this card is actually mostly *overrated*.

But today, I want to focus on why and how 17lands stats dramatically underrate the card Invasion of Kaldheim.

1/x As a rare that gets picked a lot higher than I take it (3.14 ALSA in Bo3!), I don't have that much experience actually playing with the card. But it reads pretty strong to me, and has seemed impressive when I've cast it.

So why does it have a whopping *48.8%* GIH WR in Bo1?

2/x

While I'm waiting PT day 2 coverage to start, I figured I should probably catch up on the underrated card threads I've been slacking on.

So, next up, Akki Scrapchomper! I actually skipped over this one, but have come to appreciate it even more lately.

1/x This is the 5th least picked card in the set, which makes sense since it reads bad and and plays poorly.

But, it has a lot of interesting synergies RB, so I've included its RB stats and will talking mostly in that context.

Statblocks:
Bo1 | Bo3
Bo1 RB | Bo3 RB

2/x

As promised, underrated card threads! First up: Urn of Godfire.

I expected this card to be completely unplayable, but recently I've been trying it a lot, and have honestly been impressed.

It's not great overall, but I hope to show where and how to use it in this thread. 1/15 Urn is currently the 10th least-picked card on 17lands in Bo1 (12th in Bo3), with ALSA 8.62 (8.35 in Bo3). Its pick rate seems to be staying roughly even in both Bo1 and Bo3.

Pictured below:

Bo1 stats | Bo3 stats
Bo1 ALSA graph | Bo3 ALSA graph

2/15

Thinking of doing underrated card threads again for this set, probably going to try for 2-3 times a week for a bit, and see how it goes?

But first I figure I should talk about Seed of Hope, which was very underrated, but is likely moving towards overrated as people hype it. 1/7 At some point Seed of Hope was the least-picked green common by ALSA, while having something like a 60ish% GIH WR in Bo1.

But after a bunch of content creators have been talking it up, this is no longer the case - it's quickly trending up in ALSA, and down to 56% GIH WR. 2/7

Okay I should be asleep right now but instead I did a bit more digging, and it's possible I'm missing something, but it seems that 17lands data contains an exhaustive list of all possible sets of commons in Arena packs of DMU, and that this list is surprisingly small. 1/7

https://twitter.com/JasonILTG/status/1586230103293378561

So basically I took the 17lands DMU draft dataset I've been using (which is a bit old, but still has 251,574 drafts), and looked at, for each common, how many different sets of commons it appeared with. And it turns out that the answer is always between 2998 and 3000. 2/7

Okay, now that Worlds drafts are over, I can share some insights I found while looking over DMU data. These insights aren't big, but do have some use. The format is basically over now, but similar insights can probably be found in future formats.

Let's talk about printruns. 1/x

https://twitter.com/JasonILTG/status/1568344420583460864

So, when we left off, I had done a cursory lookthrough of SNC data and found that there was definitely enough correlation to suggest some form of printruns. Of course, printrun data wasn't very useful for a dead format, and there wasn't DMU data yet at the time.

Repeat after me: ratios don’t matter.

Playing 41 is equivalent to playing a random subset of 40 (sans tutoring and decking).

Just cut a random card.

For a more detailed explanation of why:

https://twitter.com/jasoniltg/status/1497785368527183875?s=46&t=MiVLlljCzj2I4g6k35X6oQ

https://twitter.com/mysticaldispod/status/1585385755052212225

Worth noting that “decking” is not exactly milling out - what matters is if you ever see the original bottom card of your deck. Impulses justify >40 cards more than zero (though still very very rarely) because they churn through your deck faster.

Hm, so I spent a bit of time today looking through 17lands SNC draft data to see if print runs were still a thing on Arena. And from just a quick look at the data, it looks like it's quite probable that they are.
1/x First, I looked at, for each time Antagonize appeared P1P1 (40k times total), how many times each other card also appeared. I ended up with the following spreads by rarity:

Mythics: 262-329
Rares: 517-610
Uncommons: 1404-1617
Commons: 1948-5217
Data: pastebin.com/6KwKyxvK
2/x

Okay, wow, I did not expect them to actually go and rebalance for HBG limited; this is actually fairly exciting. So here's a thread on what I think of all the changes! magic.wizards.com/en/articles/ar… 1/x Dragonborn Looter lost a mana - this is actually huge imo. I think it doesn't quite make it the top blue common, but playing it on 1 into Undersimplify on 2 seems good, and it's also now a lot easier to get a good cheap dragon. 2/x

I was just listening to @maro254's latest Drive to Work episode on use cases (love the podcast btw), and was amused to note that one of the examples he mentioned of a use case R&D was trying to avoid - competitive events being decided by d20s - happened to me two weeks ago. 1/11 It was during day 1 of the HBG Sealed qualifier weekend - so this did, in fact, factor into me qualifying for the Arena Championship (though I did 2-0 the match and 7-0 day 1 so it wasn't a make-or-break moment). Here's the 17lands gameplay link: 17lands.com/history/d040fe… 2/11

There's enough data now to start looking at Iron Golem sorted by various color pairs! So, here's a thread about Iron Golem, why its early stats were so inflated, and when you should and shouldn't play it. 1/x First of all: overall stats. At some point, even with 1k games, Iron Golem had a 60% GIH WR. Around that point, I heard a lot of "before it could've been small sample size; now it looks real".

But now it's all the way down to 55% - what happened? Is 1k games just not enough? 2/x

So, Steadfast Unicorn. 8.30 ALSA with 60.1% GIH WR in Bo1, and 8.02 ALSA with 61.4% GIH WR in Bo3. Performing as the 4th-best white common, but taken like it's filler. How good can be a 1/2 for W be? First of all: some people don't know Unicorn's exact text. It says "only during your turn", but NOT sorcery speed or only once per turn. You can activate it multiple times, and you can do it in the middle of combat. I've had many opponents not realize that and chump twice. 2/x

Interesting example of an easy trap to fall into with 17lands data: Triumphant Surge currently has the second highest GIH WR out of all white commons on 17lands. But iirc, it was considered more of a sideboard card. Were people just wrong about it? I claim the answer is no. 1/x The first hint to something fishy going on here is that Surge has a drastically lower sample size; it appears in hand about a quarter as often as Pilgrim or Omen. That points to it being a more situational card - people play it when it's good, and not when it's bad. 2/x

Fun fact: in the history of 17lands PremierDraft data (not counting cubes), there are only 8 cards that have >70% GIH WR. Half of them are from THB.

(Sample size is still pretty small but I was amused by just how big the numbers are. 27.9pp IWD is uhhhh quite something) Ashiok, Nightmare Muse (THB, 76.0%)
Dream Trawler (THB, 73.6%)
Skysovereign, Consul Flagship (KLR, 73.0%)
Kiora Bests the Sea God (THB, 72.5%)
The Scarab God (AKR, 71.5%)
Archon of Sun's Grace (THB, 71.0%)
Starnheim Unleashed (KHM, 70.5%)
Koma, Cosmos Serpent (KHM, 70.2%)

Short thread on shield counters in Streets of New Capenna (SNC), and how I suspect they will play out. Thread inspired by some great discussion with @Ncaa_0 on the @Limitedlevelups Discord. 1x For those not aware, shield counters are a new mechanic in SNC that basically protect a creature from the next time it would be dealt damage or destroyed. 2/x

Another rule of engagement for NEO, related to my previous thread on snowballing material: board states in this format are often wide and tense. 1/x When games are often about snowballing material, it's pretty natural that that leads to wide boards. The best cards all provide value and a body, so that leads to there being a lot of bodies. 2/x

To add my 2 cents to the >40 card limited discussion - here's a thread about a very quick and easy sanity check that shows when >40 is objectively suboptimal; in fact it applies to most limited decks, which is why playing >40 is usually suboptimal. 1/x This isn't to say that you should never do so! For one thing, you don't have to always play optimally. Plus, there are situations where this check doesn't apply - I'm just laying out a simple check that, if true of your deck, means that playing >40 is definitely suboptimal. 2/x

Just thought of a great "rule of engagement" (credit to @Chord_O_Calls for the terminology) for NEO: this format is all about snowballing material. Every piece of material matters, especially early, even the ones you might not expect. 1/x The card most emblematic of this concept is Virus Beetle. This card is solidly in the lead in GIH WR in Bo1, and neck-and-neck with Spirited Companion in Bo3 - and after playing with and against it, I agree with the stats' evaluation of it as top common. 2/x

I've seen a lot of people ask about splashing this format, and this format is the most conducive to splashing since Kaldheim, so it's time for a thread on when/how to play >2 colors in limited! (This might be a bit more disorganized than most threads, sorry) 1/x People often say that you should play two colors in limited. This is great advice for newer players certainly; playing two colors is definitely more straightforward, and sets are designed primarily for two color decks. But there's a lot of EV in thinking outside the box. 2/x

Trophies #20-22. Lots of good rares. Highlights:
- Dodged lethal with a Wanderer's Intervention cast from the top of my deck with The Reality Chip (bonus points for story flavor)
- 8/8 Sunblade on turn 5 twice with Invoke.
- Bounced back two Gloomshriekers with my Kairi trigger Also wanted to highlight one of my proudest moments of tight technical play this set, and an example of why I like Bo3 so much over Bo1; saw Invoke the Winds in game 1, and decided to take a weird but I suspect correct line accordingly: 17lands.com/history/08ca35…