I'm surprised that people are surprised at the rate of Taliban takeover. With the glue of American dollars and guns gone, what motive do many warlords/strongmen have to stand against Taliban? Those who think they will not be adjusted by Taliban and Pakistan, will try to fight +
+ in self interest, to preserve their strongholds. As for Afghanistan Armed Forces, what holds them together? The moment they figure out each one is to his own, they'll either put down arms or simply walk over to the other side. And with the Americans begging the Taliban to be +
+ good boys, people can figure out which way the wind is blowing. From a macro Afghan identity, it will all boil down to tribal and group loyalties. Pakistanis and Taliban know these equations inside out.
As expected:
- Taliban takeover of AFG is now when and not 'if'. What matters is how the situation evolves from here.
- My unsolicited 2 cents on the same @ramana_brf @elmihiro @MohalJoshi @hukum2082 @Firezstarter1 @bennedose
- First: Who are the main protagonists here?
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+
China, Russia, Pakistan, Iran, and USA. Wild card is Taliban.
- What does each one of them wants?
- China:
(a) US exit removes US from its periphery and that too, from proximity to the restive Xinjiang area.
(b) It wants stable AFG for multiple reasons. First, it does not +
+ want the Uighur Islamist elements from Xinjiang getting safe base in AFG for recruitment, training and for launching attacks in Xinjiang.
--Secondly, it wants to mine AFG for its mineral wealth. We're talking about billions of dollars worth of investment and trade here.
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+
Remember, China has a short (<100km) border with AFG at the extreme north-eastern end of Wakhan Corridor. There are passes on this border which can connect AFG directly with China.
Further, road G314, which is known as Karakoram Highway in Pakistan, is hardly ~100 km from
+
+ AFG-China road.
--For China, it is a matter of extending the road into Wakhan Corridor.
-- As per this report, a dirt track, which earlier existed from Ishkashim to Sarhad-e Broghil, has now been extended till Bozai Gumbaz (check next tweet for map)
bbc.com/travel/article…
- Map of Wakhan corridor with key locations for reference:
An article which gives a overview of efforts made by China to create surface connectivity with AFG. One thing which stands out is that China has plans to reach all peripheral areas of AFG. Question is - will it enter AFG?
(Thread to be continued)
dailypioneer.com/2021/sunday-ed…
- In case of CPEC in Pakistan, Pakistan Army actually raised two light infantry divisions to guard CPEC assets. One is centered in Gilgit-Baltistan and other is for the Gwadar belt.
- Can China provide financial assistance to Taliban to raise a similar force to safeguard +
+ Chinese investments in AFG?
- One definite fall-out of Taliban takeover will be that Chinese will rely more on Pakistan to navigate the nuances of ally-building in AFG.
(2) Russia :
- Russia will be glad that US has exited from its sensitive underbelly in Central Asia.
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+
- Anyone familiar with Russian history will know that Russians are very sensitive about the encirclement of their empire.
- As far as they are concerned, from Syria in west to AFG in east, is an arc of zero to diminished US influence.
- However, their worry will be any +
+ spillover of radical Islamism into Central Asian states and hence, they're most likely to work closely with China to ensure a peaceful and stable Pakistan.
- Between China and Russia, issues like nation building, democracy or women's rights aren't exactly of much concern.
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+
- Interestingly, India and Russia might find themselves at odds when it comes to AFG and future course of action.
(3) USA:
- US will again be taken up the garden path by the Pakistanis and will be sold some solution packaged as greater good of AFG.
- Once Taliban gain control+
+ you can expect the US admin to pay homilies about human rights, women's rights, democracy and all the associated nonsense.
- It dependency on Pakistan to deal with Taliban will continue and in exchange of rewards, or to get that next IMF loan or help with FATF list, it will +
+ continue to pretend safeguarding US interests.
(4) Iran:
- US is out of its eastern flank, so that is a good thing.
- But given the Taliban's hatred for Shia Muslims and their propensity to massacre them at will, it will lead to some tension on AFG western border.
- Between +
+ China, Russia, and Taliban, expect some sort of security guarantee for Shia Muslims and acceptance of Iran's sphere of influence in western AFG.
- They don't want repeat of Iranians amassing troops on border with AFG as in 1998.
edition.cnn.com/WORLD/meast/98…
(5) Pakistan:
- The biggest benefit accruing to Pakistan is that it increases it geostrategic importance.
- Any economic development like shipping AFG raw materials to other countries, or a gas/oil pipeline from Central Asia, will have to go through Pakistan
- Pakistan is a +
+ rentier state which has earned its bread only because of its location.
- It twice milked US, and now expect it to milk China, and to some extent Russia. Not to mention the continued dependence of US on Pakistan.
- AFG with pliant government is also important because of the +
+ unsolved fault-line of AFG-Pakistan border, or the Durand Line.
- A strong and confident AFG can open this wound (remember, AFG was the only country which voted against inclusion of Pakistan in UN)
- Though, Taliban had at one point earlier refused to accept it as a border 😎+
+
- Further, with sanctuaries denied in AFG, it will prevent another insurgency in KPK from rearing its head.
- Last time it took Pakistan Army decade+ and between 5,000-8,000 dead to bring peace to this region.
(6) Taliban:
- Though raised as Pakistan's proxies after Mujahedeen+
+ failed to deliver in AFG, they aren't exactly 100% Pakistan's puppets.
- They say power corrupts, and the same has applied to Taliban as well.
- Today's Taliban leadership will have to deal with pressure from not only Pakistan but China as well. And Russia to limited extent
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+
- However, the biggest joker in the pack is their Islamist leanings.
- Remember, apart from tribal loyalties, the glue which holds them together is Islam.
- Taliban leadership will have to be deft in handling geopolitics while ensuring its action do not run foul of Islamic+
+ principles.
- Because that can lead to centrifugal tendencies.
- Islamic history is witness to the fact group(s) claiming itself to be more pious than existing rulers/leaders has displaced them.
- It remains to be seen how the Taliban cadre and some of its leaders react to +
+ developments ore decisions in AFG and Pakistan which according to them as un-Islamic.
(6) India -
So, what does the situation holds for India? For that, we need to define what do we want from AFG.
1. We want a stable AFG with a friendly government which does not provide sanctuary to Islamic terrorists fighting in J&K. This in my opinion, is our no.1 priority.
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+
2. If 1st condition is met, AFG can form a base for India to keep tabs on Pakistan. Extent of this activity and intervention can vary depending on our own policy and the extent to which AFG government would allow.
3. Commercial activities like import-export and option for +
+ Indian companies to partake in mining opportunities in AFG.
- A friendly AFG government would likely allow transportation of raw materials from AFG to Iran, and thence into India.
- Pakistan does not come into question and does not have veto on Indian actions in AFG.
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+
4. Friendly AFG can become our window in Central Asia through India-Iran-AFG axis.
- But what happens now?
1. Preventing use of AFG as a base for terrorists operations against India remains topmost priority. Whether this happens or not is a complex question.
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2. First, because of their Islamist worldview where Indians are seen as kaffirs and Kashmir as a Jihad, Taliban might not want to be seen as offending fellow Jihadis.
3. Secondly, even if Taliban aren't 100% Pakistani puppets, Pakistan will still retain enough influence to get+
+ Taliban to look the other way as they go about shifting terrorist camps into AFG.
4. As for commercial activities, here again, along with Pakistan, China will be influencing decision making.
5. China gets a say because Taliban will require acceptance of their government by +
+ China to gain legitimacy. Not to mention lucrative contracts which will fill the pockets of senior leadership of Taliban.
(7) India, Pakistan, Taliban and Kashmir.
- Now comes the other most important question: Will Taliban government in Kabul lead to increased violence +
+ in Kashmir?
- Before we answer this, first lets clarify that whether Taliban fighters themselves make a beeline for LOC or whether Pakistan pumps in more Pakistani Punjabi terrorists, it does not matter. For India, its the same thing.
- Exit of US from AFG and Taliban in +
+ control is likely to lead to an interesting phenomenon in Pakistan.
- You see, the Jihadis raised by Pakistan need something to keep them occupied.
- As long as US was in AFG, these cadre could be directed westward to fight the infidel Americans.
- Now, with the US gone +
+ what's the next for these Jihadi bros?
- Well, you guessed it right - India, which means Kashmir.
- Not to mention that more pious amongst these Jihadi yahoos are also likely to turn on Pakistan because they consider it to be not Islamic enough.
- But can Pakistan simply turn+
+ on the tap, and direct them towards India?
- Technically, yes.
- But, and this is a big BUT - they're dealing with a different leadership in India this time.
- Who knows how Modi government will react to increased provocation(s)?
- Forget Surgical Strike(s), what if GOI +
+ launches punitive strikes across the entire LOC? What is it alters the LOC alignment? What if it openly launches air-strikes on a larger scale across Pakistan?
- So, Pakistanis don't have it easy themselves.
- Though, given their history of being tactically brilliant and +
+ strategically blind, I don't put it past them to indulge in some shenanigan.
- And not to forget, with USA gone, India has no compulsion to go easy on Pakistan.
- Earlier, US presence in AFG meant US wanted India not to put pressure on Pakistan's eastern border.
- Because +
+ typical of Pakistanis, they told the Americans that if India puts pressure on its eastern border, Pakistan Army will have to move forces from Pakistan-AFG border to India-Pakistan border.
- Now, it can't sell this lemon.
(To be continued)
Seems keen Indian observers of AFG had already anticipated the likely end-game in AFG with US exit. Sample this from 2012.
Chalo ji, the fireworks in KPK by TTP are picking-up. Taliban, Tehrik-e-Taliban and Pakistan's KPK province is the joker in the pack.
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