Thread by @rupert_pearse

COVID sitrep: Last week I reported the news that we feel we’ve passed the high water-mark for this wave in the UK. But this week expert epidemiologists have been discussing how infections are rising once more. So what’s happening on the ground? 1/10

.....this graph helps to explain. The number of COVID infections chatters up and down but the number of patients in hospital (our COVID-19 workload) is currently holding steady. Nothing like the winter peak of nearly 40,000 patients but still a lot of patients to look after. 2/10

This fits with this week’s independent data from @ICNARC which focuses on admissions to Intensive Care. The number of COVID patients in Intensive Care is holding steady (so far). The national picture fits with what colleagues are seeing in hospitals around the UK. 3/10

Regional variations are important because the COVID workload is greater in some areas putting the local NHS under more strain. Northern Ireland and the North-west of England are worst affected in relation to the number of available ICU beds. 4/10

In other news, research in @TheLancet from the @NIHRresearch funded ISARIC team suggests 1 in 10 COVID infections in the first UK wave were acquired while patients were in hospital. Infection control is so important but it makes hospitals inefficient. 5/10
thelancet.com/journals/lance…

So we *think* we have the measure of the current wave (we have learned to be cautious about forecasts) and the NHS COVID response does remain fairly stable. What makes things difficult is all the other challenges we are dealing with at the same time. 6/10

Along with COVID, NHS Emergency Depts are extremely busy, as are GP practices. We are short staffed but working hard to clear a huge waiting list of surgeries, all while keeping hospitals COVID-safe (see above). This from @ChrisCEOHopson... 7/10
go.shr.lc/2VSeTuK

Each hospital team is responding to these daily challenges much as we do during a very busy winter. This means we have less time to plan ahead, or to adapt and improve patient care. Meanwhile the real winter is not so far away…. 8/10

While the UK vaccination rate is excellent, worldwide COVID infections surge back and forth from one country to another. We may be an island but we are still connected to the world. The pandemic is not over until it’s over everywhere. The @WHO map of % change this week… 9/10

So the message remains the same. COVID vaccination remains vital but we need this to succeed in every country. Our individual actions do help keep COVID under control, so please keep up your good work with #HandsFaceSpace & fresh air. We have a long way to go. 💙 10/10