Rupert Pearse Profile picture
Aug 14, 2021 10 tweets 5 min read Read on X
COVID sitrep: Last week I reported the news that we feel we’ve passed the high water-mark for this wave in the UK. But this week expert epidemiologists have been discussing how infections are rising once more. So what’s happening on the ground? 1/10 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
.....this graph helps to explain. The number of COVID infections chatters up and down but the number of patients in hospital (our COVID-19 workload) is currently holding steady. Nothing like the winter peak of nearly 40,000 patients but still a lot of patients to look after. 2/10 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
This fits with this week’s independent data from @ICNARC which focuses on admissions to Intensive Care. The number of COVID patients in Intensive Care is holding steady (so far). The national picture fits with what colleagues are seeing in hospitals around the UK. 3/10
Regional variations are important because the COVID workload is greater in some areas putting the local NHS under more strain. Northern Ireland and the North-west of England are worst affected in relation to the number of available ICU beds. 4/10
In other news, research in @TheLancet from the @NIHRresearch funded ISARIC team suggests 1 in 10 COVID infections in the first UK wave were acquired while patients were in hospital. Infection control is so important but it makes hospitals inefficient. 5/10
thelancet.com/journals/lance…
So we *think* we have the measure of the current wave (we have learned to be cautious about forecasts) and the NHS COVID response does remain fairly stable. What makes things difficult is all the other challenges we are dealing with at the same time. 6/10
Along with COVID, NHS Emergency Depts are extremely busy, as are GP practices. We are short staffed but working hard to clear a huge waiting list of surgeries, all while keeping hospitals COVID-safe (see above). This from @ChrisCEOHopson... 7/10
go.shr.lc/2VSeTuK
Each hospital team is responding to these daily challenges much as we do during a very busy winter. This means we have less time to plan ahead, or to adapt and improve patient care. Meanwhile the real winter is not so far away…. 8/10
While the UK vaccination rate is excellent, worldwide COVID infections surge back and forth from one country to another. We may be an island but we are still connected to the world. The pandemic is not over until it’s over everywhere. The @WHO map of % change this week… 9/10
So the message remains the same. COVID vaccination remains vital but we need this to succeed in every country. Our individual actions do help keep COVID under control, so please keep up your good work with #HandsFaceSpace & fresh air. We have a long way to go. 💙 10/10

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More from @rupert_pearse

Jan 29, 2022
COVID Sitrep: Only a short update as on call this weekend with this amazing team covering covid ICU. TLDR: Things may be settling but the work is far from over. 1/8 Image
Lots of talk this week about new covid infections hitting a plateau. This is probably driven by children going back to school. So not ideal, but better than the rebound peak we feared would happen after New Year. 2/8 https://coronavirus.data.go...
New hospital admissions continue to fall but slowly. A large proportion of these are those 'incidental' covid patients admitted for other 'usual' medical problems not covid disease. 3/8 https://coronavirus.data.go...
Read 9 tweets
Jan 22, 2022
COVID sitrep: Some positive news to report this week. We are definitely feeling a fall in NHS hospital and ICU admissions with covid in London this week. The rest of the UK should see a similar pattern in the coming days. This below appeared on our ICU board this week! 1/10
As mentioned in previous weeks, being confident we are past the peak is a big deal for the NHS. Every day things get a little easier, a little simpler. We can do more ‘usual’ NHS work. We can get back to clearing the backlog of surgery and other patient care. 2/10
The colours on the national map are getting lighter every week which reassures us that the number of new infections continues to fall in most areas of the UK. 3/10 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Read 10 tweets
Jan 15, 2022
COVID sitrep: Lots of topics to choose from this week. Good news is we have probably passed the peak in new COVID-19 infections in several UK regions. This week’s map (right) is not so dark. But what will happen next is not so clear. A thread from the NHS perspective. 1/12 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
All eyes have been on London as the first UK region to get hit by the omicron variant. Cases seem to have peaked both in younger and older people (light blue line=<60yrs, dark blue line=60+ yrs). But we aren’t sure whether new case rates will fall quickly or plateau out. 2/12 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Why so cautious when others seem confident cases are falling? Well, passing the peak defines the NHS response. When we know we are past the worst we stop planning extra covid capacity, re-focus on the patients we have, and plan more routine NHS work. A big shift in strategy. 3/12
Read 12 tweets
Jan 8, 2022
First COVID sitrep of the New Year: The number of omicron variant COVID-19 infections remains extremely high in the UK and still far higher than anything we have seen up until last month. Here’s what’s happening in the NHS… 1/14 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
London was the first UK region to get hit by the omicron variant before spreading across the country. This week’s million dollar question is whether new infections have peaked in London. Many say yes, but it seems too early to be sure…. 2/14 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
…and being sure we are past the peak is a key moment in the NHS response to each wave. Once we *know* we are past the worst, we can stop planning extra covid capacity, we can re-focus on the patients we have, and all the other routine NHS work. This makes a big difference. 3/14
Read 14 tweets
Dec 31, 2021
COVID sitrep for New Year’s Eve: The wave of omicron variant COVID-19 infections continues to spread around the world. Hospital admissions are rising across the UK but there are important differences to earlier waves…. 1/12
This omicron variant seems to spread much more easily. Infection rates are smashing all previous records. 189,000 ‘cases’ yesterday. Yes, we are testing a lot more people, but the proportion who test positive is also going up (blue line in graph). 2/12 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
The big discussion now is how harmful the omicron variant might be. Lots of reports of high rates of ‘incidental’ infections in hospital - patients testing positive for coronavirus who were admitted to hospital for a different illness. So what’s happening on the ground? 3/12
Read 14 tweets
Dec 24, 2021
COVID sitrep for Christmas Eve: The huge wave of COVID-19 infections, driven by the new omicron variant, is spreading across the country. Hospital admissions are now rising in London but the good news is we think things won’t be as bad as last winter. 1/12 bbc.co.uk/news/uk-597587…
The wave of infections with SARS CoV-2 is simply huge, passing 100,000 ‘cases’ two days in a row and way in excess of the previous record peak of 81,000 in January 2021. Yesterday 119,000 people tested positive 2/12
Before anyone suggests it, this is NOT simply because we are doing more tests. Firstly, the proportion of tests done which are positive has increased too (blue line in graph). Secondly, people get tested for a reason - symptoms or a covid contact – it’s not random behaviour. 3/12
Read 12 tweets

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