Thread by @firstresponses

Memphis/Shelby County
Covid Wk-In-Review

tl;dr
* Cases, 618/day (+2,215% over 7wks)
* Case Rate, 66 per 100k (4th highest ever)
* Positivity, 23% (record-high)
* Hospitalizations, nearing record-highs
* Deaths, 30 this wk (most since Feb)

1/

Before we begin, please contribute to this fund to help Floridia Jackson pay for the care she needs.

Floridia has cared for so many of us over the years, but now she needs our help. So I ask that you be generous and give as you are able.

gofundme.com/f/fighting-for…

2/

Before we start, a quick note: The health dept dashboard has not been updated since Thursday. Apparently, the site is having some problems.

Case numbers have been reported, but not positive tests, which makes positivity rate impossible to calculate.



3/

I've estimated positive tests (just using cases since they've been pretty much equal recently) and total tests (applying daily growth rate trends).

Using these estimates allows me to estimate the positivity rate.

Okay, so now, the data...

4/

Let's start with hospitalization. We're about to set a new record in the next week or so.

At the end of June, we had just 52 covid patients. We now have 10x as many, over 500.

And ICUs are up from 11 to 135.

And there is no indication that trend will reverse anytime soon.

5/

We know Memphis sits at the corner of Tennessee, Mississippi, and Arkansas.

And hospitals are full across all three states.

That impacts us here in Memphis. Bc then they come and fill up our hospitals.



6/

Remember, when hospitals fill up, it doesn't matter if you have covid or a car wreck or a heart attack. When it's full, it's full.

And that puts every single person in Memphis at tremendous risk.

7/

And it's started to impact kids.

As of yesterday, there were 20 pediatric covid hospitalizations.

Just nine days earlier, it was 6.

Play that out, and we're up to 60 next wknd, then nearly 200 the following week.

We need the PP protesters on that.



8/

As you can see, we've blown by last summer's peak.

And we're two weeks from setting an all-time record for most cases in a week.

Let me repeat: In 2wks, it will be worse than the worst of December. And it'll only take 2wks bc case growth is slowing.

9/

Here are weekly cases since vaccines became widely available in March. And you can see how cases have just exploded.

In the 18wks from March thru June, there were 12k total cases.

In the 6wks of July & Aug, there have been over 13k.

10/

The wk of June 20, there were 187 total cases, or an avg of 27/day.

This week: 4,329 total cases, or 618/day. That's an increase of +2,215% in just 7wks.

Oh, and the wk of July 4, there were 656 total cases reported. For the wk.

We had nearly that (618) each day this wk.

11/

But these are just the cases we know about.

With positivity rates setting new record-highs for 3wks straight now, up to 23% we know that we are missing a lot - A LOT - of cases.

True cases are likely around 3x higher. We're probably looking at 1,500-2,000 cases per day.

12/

Testing is up, but it's still below any point before vaccines become available. And we already weren't doing enough testing back then.

It's time - past time - to start requiring either vaccination or weekly testing.

13/

Speaking of vaccinations, while they do continue to rise each week, the growth rate is slowing.

The rate has gone from +59% to +46% to +31% to +12% to +9% this week.

Still positive, but we need to reverse this trend.

14/

If we don't get people vax'd up, and in a hurry, we'll start to see a lot of unnecessary deaths.

We just had our deadliest week since vaccines became widely available, by the way. And we know that almost every one of these people was unvax'd.

15/

And I'll say again, those PP protesters need to step up and prove their pro-life credentials by protesting this.

This is a pro-life issue. This is an issue around which we can all unite: left, right, and center.

16/

We're avg'ing more deaths per day today (3.36) than a year ago today (3.14).

17/

Our case rate is up to 65.9 per 100k.

The all-time high of 90.1 is a little misleading bc that's by report date, which was inflated when the state caught up on a backlog of tests last December.

The high by specimen collection date is 68.3, so we're right there.

18/

But if you are un-vax'd and have never had covid, the case rate is 349 per 100k.

That's 3.5x higher than the worst we saw in our winter peak.

19/

Among the un-vax'd: Children.

But as @ldtestino reports, we parents won't receive any covid data at the school level.

They are pointing to HIPPA, but I'm sorry, I'm calling bullshit on that. If Mississippi can do it, so can we.

commercialappeal.com/story/news/edu…

20/

They say they'll report covid data at the district level. And that might make sense for a small rural district. But that doesn't make sense in a sprawling metro.

As a parent, district-level data doesn't help me make informed decisions about my kids.

21/

Collierville has a dashboard that gives covid data at the school level. Props to them.

And according to it, all but one school has had a case already.

But they're not alone. I'm hearing from a lot of families that they received communication from their school about a case.

22/

It's been a while since we looked at this awesome risk assessment tool from Georgia Tech.

It shows that there's a 31% chance that a student in a class of 25 has covid. In other words, 1 out of every 3 classes will have an infected student.

covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu

23/

With 100 kids, the size of a small lunch pd, there's a 78% chance that a student is infected. And kids take their masks off at lunch.

(They take their masks off throughout the day, btw. Just look at the photos schools are posting online. Imagine what they're not posting.)

24/

I'm tired. So I'm going to close there.

I don't want to be doom & gloom. We know what to do. The question is whether we can work together as a community to do it.

No one embodies community like Floridia, btw. Be community for her.

gofundme.com/f/fighting-for…

25/25