Thread by @DrewHolden360

🧵THREAD🧵

I don’t know the right answer to what’s going on in Afghanistan.

But I do know that nearly everything the Biden Administration has said about it for the last few months has been wrong or a promise unkept.

I revisit what was said and predicted.⤵️

First, important framing. We’ve known that the rebuild of Afghanistan has been a failure and a fraud for years.

If you haven’t yet, I encourage you to read The Afghanistan Papers from @washingtonpost, which unpacks the depth of the deception: washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/…

Despite that, President Biden plowed ahead with his withdrawal plans.

He was confident enough that, just last month, he rejected comparisons to Saigon because “the Taliban is not the North Vietnamese Army.”

That might be fair. They proved far more capable.

Again, just last month, Biden said “the likelihood there’s going to be the Taliban overrunning everything and owning the whole country is highly unlikely.”

One month later, the Taliban had done just that.

If today’s speech from Biden sounded familiar, it’s because it was largely lifted from his speech in April announcing the drawdown.

One line that didn’t make it in this time? The Afghan military will “continue to fight valiantly…at great cost.”

One of the most consistently wrong people is Antony Blinken, Biden’s Secretary of State.

He said of the withdrawal: “as the United States begins withdrawing our troops, we will use our civilian and economic assistance to advance a just and durable peace for Afghanistan.”

In April, while visiting Afghanistan, Blinken told Afghan President Ashraf Gandhi - who has since fled the country - that Blinken was there to “demonstrate literally, by our presence, that we have an enduring and ongoing commitment to Afghanistan.”

I’m…not sure that one came to pass.

But perhaps Blinken’s worst prediction was from June where he said the US withdrawal wouldn’t lead to “some kind of immediate deterioration in the situation” that could happen “from a Friday to a Monday.”

It took, what, a week and a half?

There were a lot of bad predictions about the Taliban.

In April, US Envoy to Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad told lawmakers that the new Taliban would behave better because “international recognition” would prove an incentive.

Doesn’t look like it.

The generals, as ever, were also wrong. Speaking to the Senate in June, SecDef Lloyd Austin and Gen Mark Milley said there was a “medium” risk that the Taliban would have the capability to retake Afghanistan and it would take two years.

It took them two weeks.

Milley at that same testimony said that “I don’t see Saigon 1975 in Afghanistan. The Taliban just aren’t the North Vietnamese Army. It’s not that kind of situation.”

It was, in fact, precisely that type of situation, just worse and faster.

This particular piece from NY Times was just a goldmine of bad information. google.com/amp/s/www.nyti…

Here we’ve got nameless “U.S. officials” endorsing the theory that the Taliban - yes, that Taliban - would be concerned about being an international pariah because their leaders “have a record of seeking international credibility.”

"...experts also believe that Taliban leaders have moderated in recent years, recognizing that Afghanistan’s cities have modernized, and note that the group’s peace negotiators have traveled internationally, seeing the outside world in a way its founders rarely...did." NYT, 4/23

Speaking of generals, here’s Joseph Dunford endorsing the international respect theory that this Afghanistan would “temper its violence” because…well, who knows.

Just amazing.

As has been the case for the last twenty years, our intel has simply been wrong.

We thought we had months, even worst-case scenario.

We really only had weeks.

I’ve said this on here repeatedly but I really don’t think that Biden will face serious political consequences from this devastating situation.

But every prediction and promise he and his team have made have been disastrously wrong on Afghanistan.

Folks sometimes ask how they can support the threads. I do them as a hobbyist so the short answer is that there isn’t a way.

But if you can, food banks are still in serious need. Capital Area Food Bank here in DC does great work for our neighbors in need.
give.capitalareafoodbank.org/give/324509/#!…