Thread by @johnnie_jacks

$BTC

Just some thoughts as I go through the charts with fresh eyes today

1 - In terms of horizontal S/R we have clearly blasted through most major levels we were coming up against.

Not much S/R wise between here and 56K now

2 - There was a pretty major area of resistance between 47.8-49.9K including the very obvious psychological level of 50K

Did it put up much resistance?

Not really - but we're only JUST above it so a bit early to say it's definitively claimed yet

Where are we now?

There's some resistance here, albeit a pretty obvious one that a lot of the market will be watching (BTC doesn't like to reward the majority)

1 - Global .618 (HUGE level)
2 - 1-1 extension (hitting now)
3 - HVN of this huge range
4 - Some previous highs

In terms of volume from the lows, we are currently above the VAH and have held it so far for a backtest

While above, upside is the +ev play

One thing to keep an eye on is the majority of volume is now towards the highs, and majority of time now towards the lows

This is the opposite situation from where we were at 65K (when Coinbase was propping up the price for their listing ;) )

At that time the majority of the volume was around 32K while majority of the time was above 50K

Eventually price snapped back to where most of the volume was

So what do we do?

Well, if you think we're in an impulsive uptrend then "long until wrong" is the play

Dips are for buying

But dip where?

In impulsive moves we can look for .382 retraces, and look what it lines up with

Good place to look for an entry

What about a short?

Well in an uptrend we want to look for longs primarily, and take resistances as TP levels and if you're more advanced - levels to hedge

The ideal short for me here would be an SFP

Even if taken, I would be aggressively looking for an entry on a bounce

That is - unless we lose the VAH and gain acceptance back into the larger value area from the lows, when we can look towards the POC and if that's lost then ultimately the VAL

But what if we just keep on going up?

You do you, but I don't think it's a good idea to buy or sell just because you see big candles

In an uptrend you look for retracements for longs
In a downtrend you look for pumps for shorts

If it goes higher, great, look for where a good entry on a retracement would be!

What do I think will happen?

I'm long and strong in spot across $BTC and other majors

At the moment I'm not seeing any real weakness in the chart, either by PA or order flow

If we lose the Daily Open today we can see 48-48.2K

Until then, I expect higher for now

Glossary:

S/R - Support and Resistance level
HVN - High Volume Node
SFP - Swing Failure Pattern
VAH - Value Area High
VAL - Value Area Low
PA - Price Action

A quick Google search will help you understand what all the above mean so you have more context