So much doomporn lately

Over the past few months more friends than I can EVER remember, by a long way, have been suffering with mental health issues

I have too

While we wait for the illuminati to decide if our parents can use their heaters this winter - let's talk ⬇️

/1 A few months ago I found myself in a dark place

Some deaths of friends, an existential crisis of sorts and aftershock of covid caught up to me

I've been there enough times to recognize it, perhaps luckily, and was able to take action

I'm good now - here's what I did

/2

Take a moment to be IN THE MOMENT

Sure it may sound like hippie “woo” but this moment right now, it’s the only life you can ever be truly sure you’ll ever have

We all go through ups and downs, trading is probably better at causing those than most businesses

/1 Personally speaking, I’ve been through a bit of a rough time lately mentally

I’m not ashamed to admit it

I’ve sought out professional help and the support of the people around me and things are a lot better

I’m grateful

2/

HOW TO SURVIVE THE BEAR MARKET

As a "ooo" G of the highest calibre

After a mere 50-90% drawdown

I hereby bless you all with my incredibly timely guide to surviving a bear market

1/862 Learn how to trade

You'll probably need to stick to mostly LTF stuff and might even need to *gasp* look at other markets to find volatility

It's also pretty much the hardest thing I've ever dedicated myself to so stop thinking you'll get amazing quickly - you won't

2/862

$BTC

Still long on 2 accounts (one swing, one scalp with 3xTP and the rest running)

But "let price speak to you"

We hunt liquidity, right?

Where's the next big pool likely to be?

Is shorting here the best entry?

Is shorting the best play?

1/ As I covered in my video yesterday ()

We're in a daily uptrend

So we want to be long, right?

We can scalp short, we can day trade short, we can even short down to a Higher Low

But really, we want to focus on the HL for the bigger trades

2/

$BTC

Had already shared this range in my TA channel in the MindJacked Discord

Saw this update from @Mindset_BTC and cemented my plan

TP1 hit, TP2 at the lows, TP3 if we get there I'll let it run with a trailing stop

Stronger together 💪

https://twitter.com/Mindset_BTC/status/1499697034529763329

@Mindset_BTC Forgot the pic!

$BTC

Still in the long position from 36.2K and short from 42K (both have hit some TP, both shared before entry on Discord)

Locally we can see a move from Weekly open - into the pdnPOC and reject - straight into the local .618/golden pocket with confluence of the range POC

1/ Bounce on support came right into the VWAP and then rejected (definitely enough for a nice scalp)

This gave 3 really nice trades in a short space of time for anyone that was ready for them

Goes to show - you don't have to overtrade. Could already be done for the day!

2/

WHAT IS AN NPOC AND HOW DO YOU FIND THEM?

I've been asked this question many times, so let's get into it

1/ Firstly, you should understand what a value area is, what a POC is and what it represents and then by extension what an nPOC (naked POC) is

@Mindset_BTC put out an excellent guide on this recently here:

https://twitter.com/Mindset_BTC/status/1480524831758053376?s=20

So don't be a lazy fucker and go read it NOW!

2/

Say my trading account is $100k

Say my strategy has a MAX SL of 1% at any time

My R is 1% of my account - $1000 per trade

I put $1000 into my trading account and use Cross (i.e. 100x) leverage for a 100K position

I enter a position and market dumps before I put a SL

1/

https://twitter.com/BarsanEmil/status/1480873582150434818

In the WORST case scenario, I'm liquidated and lose $1000 = 1R

Sucks but not going to hurt much, especially as 2R is a reasonable return from ONE good trade

On top of this

Imagine I get locked out of my account or the exchange is hacked

My max risk?

$1000

2/

$BTC

Alright so let's do some TA shall we?

Going to start fresh, no viewing of the timeline or other people's opinions and see what I think

I recommend everyone to do this at the start of the week

Posting stream of consciousness style

So...the "range"

1/ Most of us have probably seen the "same price one year apart" Tweets, right?

Well when you see that, instead of "oh FFS"

You can think - ding ding ding! Oh we're probably in a range then

Either one HUGE range, or 2 distinct ranges makes sense

2/

$BTC

Alright, new week!

Going to have a little look at what the corn is doing

But first, let's talk a little bit about conviction, as I see so much confusion on my timeline whenever there's a big move (more so when that move is down!)

1/ As an investor you should do enough research on an asset to have an investment thesis - a "theory"

It doesn't have to be overcomplicated - sometimes it's "Metaverse seems to be a popular narrative, this project has enough traction that I think it will ride the wave" (1)

2/

$BTC

PAAAAAAAAANNNNIIIIIICCCCCCCC

Honestly, I think we all had enough of people losing their shit because someone has the sniffles, so let's not do it because $BTC sneezed

Nothing to panic about, just react to the new information

1/ Later on I'll look into the volume and order flow but it seems to me from first glance that $BTC was finally helped over the edge by a rapid shitting of itself (relatively speaking) of the SPX

(blue arrow shows the same time on both charts)

2/

$BTC

Well well well

Everyone probably *prefers* a breakout but we knew on balance that a continuing range was more likely

https://twitter.com/johnnie_jacks/status/1474317900085268480?s=20

In the end we got a SFP of the top of the range

Did you catch it?

If not, that's ok, you can still use it to learn something

1/ Let's go!

Ok first, if you caught the SFP then a major TP level was very clear and hopefully you took it

You could even be looking at the range in different ways and the level was basically the same

If you're playing the range, the next major TP is the bottom of the range

2/

$BTC

Just playing around doing some TA after a few days off for Christmas (well, sort of off...)

First - a TradFi friend of mine came to see me around December 9th and asked "what do you think is going to happen"

I told him "honestly, probably something like this"

1/ Not trying to claim clout or say I called every high or low

Just the fact that I've been around $BTC for quite a few of these moves (up and down) and for the most part, you get a "boring" range for quite some time until there's a catalyst to drive us out of it

2/

$BTC

A lot happened yesterday!

When there's a move like this I like to get into the charts and look at the mechanics of what happened and get some idea of what levels I'm interested in next

So I'm going to share flow of consciousness as I do it 😀

1/x We can see from the area of breakout, there was a nice initial push in Open Interest and volume

A lot of that was fuelled by shorts being stopped out/liquidated but then longs stepped in too

Where we are now, there is some bearish CVD divergence locally (LH price HH CVD)

2/

I get asked all the time "what is that indicator on your chart"?

I use many different kinds of charts - "what" is the wrong question

"why do you use it?" is the right one

1 - it's advanced theory. If you're not profitable with S/R, fibs and volume, don't worry about it

1/ I mean this seriously

If I could go back in time I'd tell myself "stop thinking you're a genius that can figure this out quicker than anyone else and get profitable with the basics first"

2 - Expect it to take time to learn and put into practice

I mean a LOT of time

2/

$BTC

Let's do a bit of hindsight analysis on the SFP last night and see -

Assuming you were aware of the level, how could you have entered the trade intelligently?

Where could you have taken profits?

And learn - how can I do better next time?

1/

https://twitter.com/johnnie_jacks/status/1465229929902067717?s=20

As you can see, the Daily S/R at 58999.5 was on my chart

So this is a level I would set an alert at and want to watch for a reaction

Played 100% perfectly, it gave a quick 4.5% move to the downside

A great move for any day trader

So - how to catch it?

2/

$BTC

Still don't have much time to trade but wanted to spend a little bit of time looking at the chart without reading anyone's opinion etc

I think this is a helpful exercise for everyone to do at the start of the week

Will add some thoughts stream of consciousness style

1/ I saw the SFP of the lows last night below the Daily S/R and thought "this is probably a pretty nice trade"

It was a low volatility inside day and was a nice setup to at least the POC/VWAP of the day but I was too tired and didn't take it

If you caught it, nice work

2/

$BTC

Let's talk about shorting

Something very important that I learned is -

What kind of trade are you looking for?

- Is it a scalp
- Is it a day trade
- Is it a swing trade?

Or is it not a trade at all and an investment instead?

1/ To be clear - I trade mostly $BTC on a purely technical basis - scalp, day trade and swing

I don't often actively trade alts because $BTC is plenty volatile enough for me and I can concentrate on a single chart

I do however invest in $BTC, alts, DeFi etc

2/

$BTC

Let's keep it simple

To the upside:

We're closed to a Daily S/R now

Orange box of resistance at 63.4 to 63.9K region is major - this is where the best possible short setup is likely to originate

Flip that that, look for nPOC/old ATH around 65K

Flips that, look for ATH To the downside:

We have a little cluster of confluence just below the lows but let's keep it simple and just look at the daily S/R at 57.3K

If we get that low, I don't see any reason why we can't just do something like this for a while, settle into a range before the next move

Got so many questions about this one

It’s all about limiting counter party risk

Quick thread

1/

https://twitter.com/emperorbtc/status/1448637542547345415

“Not your keys not your crypto”

This is one of the foundational tenants of crypto

You own the private keys, you own the crypto

On a centralized exchange (CEX) you deposit to their wallet

They then “own” the funds and credit your account

/2

$BTC

Haven't updated much because I've been long since 47.3K on futures, and always long on spot - so been comfy

But now - OH NO!! Bull Market over!!

Alright, unbunch your panties and let's have a look at what's going on

1/ There was a ton of resistance around 58K (still is plenty to get through) so I hope it wasn't a surprise we started to have a retracement there

My TP level was at 57.6K to front run the two nPOC (we ran into the Monthly one)

If we start getting higher then we can look again

2/