Gavin Newsom needs to win a majority vote to stay in office.
If he doesn't get that, somebody else can win the governorship with a small plurality.
Weird design!
vox.com/22617048/calif…
Newsom couldn't put his name up as a replacement candidate.
So his team is urging Dem voters to leave the replacement question blank.
But if Newsom loses the recall vote, and Ds have abstained from replacement vote, easier for a conservative R to win
vox.com/22617048/calif…
Urging Dem voters to abstain from the replacement question is self-interested strategy (Newsom wants to frame the choice as between him and a Republican).
But the replacement vote only matters *if* Newsom loses the recall vote. Picking a replacement candidate doesn't hurt Newsom
The CA recall has big implications for the state and its pandemic response (though the governor's office will be on the ballot again in 2022), but also a potential national implication, considering the US Senate is 50-50 & Sen. Feinstein is 88 years old
vox.com/22617048/calif…
To be clear I think state Democrats have rationally pursued the strategy that maximizes Newsom's chances of winning. But that comes at the cost of having a Plan B in case he doesn't win.
Was there a superior strategy that would have maximized the chances of "keeping a Democrat as CA's governor, whether it's Newsom or not Newsom?"
Not sure. It didn't work in 2003. But that was a different election, with different dynamics at play.
kqed.org/news/11870960/…
Will partisan dynamics reassert themselves in CA, and save Newsom? Certainly possible.
But can't be taken for granted. Weird things can happen in oddly-timed elections, even in "safe" states. Ask Scott Brown, or Doug Jones.
vox.com/22617048/calif…
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